Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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July 25, 2017
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Warm.  Evening heavy thunderstorms possible.  Storms will produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and prolific lightning.  Isolated risk for damaging winds.  A few storms possible overnight, as well.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 75      IL ~ 70 to 75       KY ~ 70 to 75       TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: East and southeast winds at 4 to 8 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lighting.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected?  Small risk for damaging winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early and then isolated late.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars

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July 26, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly to partly sunny.  Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible.  Hot.  Muggy.  Heat index values of 100 to 108 degrees.  Locally higher numbers possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 94 to 96     IL ~ 94 to 96     KY ~ 94 to 96      TN ~ 94 to 96
Winds:  South and southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lighting.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Warm.  An increasing chances for thunderstorms moving in from the northwest and north.  Some storms could produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.  Greater risk over the northern half of southeast Missouri and northern half of southern Illinois.  The line would then move southward, but may weaken as it moves further and further south.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 72 to 76      IL ~ 72 to 76       KY ~ 74 to 78       TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning,  Gusty winds near storms.  Heavy downpours possible.  Dime size hail possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  I can’t rule out damaging winds over the northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous, especially late across the northern half of the region.  Lesser chances the further and further south you travel.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars.

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July 27, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Quite a few clouds. Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Some storms could be intense.  There is a chance, if clouds linger, that thunderstorms won’t form or won’t be as heavy as anticipated.  Keep this in mind.  Clouds could knock down our chances for severe weather or heavy rain.  Not unusual.  If storms do form, they will be heavy.  Very high PWAT values forecasted for Thursday and Thursday night.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 90    IL ~ 85 to 90     KY ~ 85 to 90      TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 22 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways.  Storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds.  Low end flash flood risk.  A few reports of damaging winds possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.  Some storms could be intense with high winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  Rain is possible.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Showers and locally heavy thunderstorms likely.  There is a chance, if clouds linger on Thursday, that thunderstorms won’t form or won’t be as heavy as anticipated.  Keep this in mind.  Clouds could knock down our chances for severe weather or heavy rain.  Not unusual.  If storms do form, they will be heavy.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 68 to 74      IL ~ 68 to 74      KY ~ 68 to 74      TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph.  Winds becoming variable in direction.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways.  Storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds.  Low end flash flood risk.  A few reports of damaging winds possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  Some storms could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.  Some storms are likely.

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July 28, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Most likely dry.  Not as muggy.  A few remaining storms possible over our southern counties near the Missouri/Arkansas line and the Kentucky/Tennessee line.  I believe precipitation will be winding down on Friday morning.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 82 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 86     KY ~ 82 to 86      TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds:  Winds becoming north and northeast at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? If the front moves far enough south, then no impacts.  Lightning and wet roadways.  Storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds.  Lower confidence on Friday’s forecast.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Precipitation coming to an end.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Turning cooler and less humid.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 60 to 65      IL ~ 60 to 65       KY ~ 60 to 65       TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Storms should be ending.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Precipitation should have come to an end.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.

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July 29, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Cooler.  Less muggy.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 75 to 80     IL ~ 75 to 80     KY ~ 75 to 80      TN ~ 75 to 80
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Less humid.  Cooler.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~ 62 to 66      KY ~ 62 to 66      TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.

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July 30, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Nice.  Not as humid.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 76 to 82     IL ~ 76 to 82     KY ~ 76 to 82      TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 60 to 65      IL ~ 60 to 65      KY ~ 60 to 65      TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.

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July 31, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 80 to 84     IL ~ 80 to 84     KY ~ 80 to 84      TN ~ 80 to 84
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 60 to 65      IL ~ 60 to 65      KY ~ 60 to 65      TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.

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August 1, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Warmer.  A slight chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90     KY ~ 85 to 90      TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds:  Northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 64 to 68       IL ~ 64 to 68       KY ~ 64 to 68     TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: East winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.

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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.  That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night:  Isolated summer pop-up storms are possible into Wednesday.  Some of the storms will produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

There is a chance greater coverage on Wednesday night, especially late.  A cold front will slowly push into the region from the north.  A few storms could be strong.  The best chance for stronger storms will be over northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois.  Monitor updates.

Thursday through Thursday night:  Thunderstorms are likely on Thursday and Thursday night.  They may linger into Friday, but data has been trending drier for Friday.  Some of the storms could become severe.  Torrential rain is possible with an extremely moist atmosphere.  Storms will also produce frequent lightning and strong winds.  Monitor updates concerning the potential for severe weather and heavy rain.

Saturday through Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

BIG weather changes are on the way.  I think most people are going to appreciate the incoming cold front.  Collective cheers are appropriate.

The front arrives on Thursday and Thursday night.  Cooler and drier air will arrive behind the front.  The air-mass will feel much nicer than recent weeks.  Lower temperatures, lower humidity, and lower dew points.  That all spells great camping weather this weekend!

Let’s break it down

Tuesday night into Wednesday

More of the same.  Warm/hot and muggy.  Overnight lows in the 70’s and daytime highs in the 90’s.  Heat index values on Wednesday will climb into the lower 100’s.  Ick weather.  At least that is what I call it!

Heat index forecast map for Wednesday

Dew point map for Wednesday.  High dew points = muggy conditions.

Isolated storms could pop up both Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Where storms occur there will be gully washers and frequent lightning.  The bulk of the area will remain dry through Wednesday afternoon.  A few spots will pick up an inch or more of rain.  Typical summer storms.

Storms on Monday night produced one to two inches of rain in southeast Missouri.  Many areas remained dry, but a few areas were drenched.

Wednesday night

Late Wednesday night a cold front will edge into our region from the north.  The air ahead of the front will be quite unstable.  It will also contain a lot of moisture.

Here are the CAPE numbers for Wednesday night.  CAPE is a measure of instability.

What is CAPE ~ to learn more click here

PWAT values ahead of of the front on Wednesday night.  Lot of moisture to work with.  PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.  These are big numbers.

This is a PWAT map from the College of Dupage.  Those pink colors are top of the chart.  PWAT values of 2.8″ or higher.  Incredible moisture in the atmosphere.

Learn more about PWAT values ~ click here

Here is the Thursday 4 am PWAT map.

I suspect storms will enter our northern counties late Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  The storms would most likely occur north of a line from Perry County, Missouri, eastward towards Carbondale/Marion, Illinois, and then towards Evansville.  From there northward is where the best chance of storms will occur.

Storms that form could be intense with high winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.  Pea to dime size hail, as well.

Future-cast radar.  Remember, this is one models opinion and these are rarely spot on.  Use this for guidance and not gospel.

Wednesday 10 PM

Radar at 4 am on Thursday morning

The line of storms will slide southward into Thursday morning.  There remain some questions as to how much they will weaken as they move further and further south towards the Ohio River.

Thursday and Thursday night

The cold front moves into our area.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the front.  Some of the storms could produce high winds, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and small hail.  I can’t rule out severe weather.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a level 1 risk for Thursday.  That is a marginal risk. A  marginal risk means that a few storms could become severe.  Widespread severe weather is unlikely.

Here is the SPC outlook.  Dark green (level 1 out of 5 risk)  is the marginal risk.  Yellow is a level 2 out of 5 risk (a slight risk).

The light green represents general non-severe thunderstorms.

Wednesday outlook (monitor late Wednesday night over our northern counties)

Thursday severe weather outlook

The atmosphere on Thursday will be primed for heavy rain.  Any storms that train over the same areas could cause a brief period of flash flooding.  Rainfall rates of 1.5 to 3″ per hour will be possible.  That means if a couple of storms track over the same area they will pick up a considerable amount of rain.

Generally, this system should produce 0.40″ to 0.80″ of rain for the area.  Then, there will be pockets of one to three inches.  This is not uncommon during the summer months.  Many of you already know this.

Future-cast radar.  Remember, this is one models opinion and these are rarely spot on.  Use this for guidance and not gospel.

Thursday 7 am

A line of storms moving through our region according to the NAM model guidance

PWAT values on Wednesday night, Thursday, and Thursday night will be very high.  Numbers north of 2.4″ are possible.  That means the atmosphere is loaded with moisture.

Thursday morning at 10 am

Friday into Sunday night

Nice camping weather.  There might be a few remaining storms on Friday morning, but I believe most of the activity would have ended.  Keep this in mind, however, in case a few storms do linger longer than anticipated.

The air mass will be nicer on Friday.  Lower dew points.  The same for Saturday and Sunday.  You are going to feel the difference.  There is no doubt about that.

Friday dew point map

Saturday dew point map

Sunday dew point map

Temperatures will also be lower, as well.  Some of the guidance paints upper 70’s for Saturday and Sunday.  I went upper 70’s to lower 80’s.  It might feel a little cool on Saturday night.  Lower dew points combined with temperatures in the sixties will feel quite refreshing.  You will be able to open your windows and let some fresh air in.

Friday high temperature map

Saturday high temperatures per the GFS model

Sunday high temperatures per the GFS model

Next week should deliver mostly below normal temperatures.  Some of the models want to build the heat ridge back into the region by the end of the week.

The GFS has us flirting with 90’s on Wednesday.  This will need to be monitored.   I went a bit lower than guidance for Tuesday’s highs, but will monitor trends.

As far as precipitation goes, it will likely remain dry on Monday and Tuesday.  I am monitoring some weak disturbances on Wednesday and Thursday.  This might provide a chance for a few showers or storms.  Low confidence on precipitation next week.

We may have to wait until around August 4th through 7th for better rain chances.  Long way off.

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