July 25, 2025: A hot weekend ahead of us. A cold front arrives late next week.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

July 25th through July 31st

Current risk: None.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comment: No tornado threats.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Scattered lightning is possible into next week. Summer thunderstorms can produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.

Peak chances will be on Saturday and Sunday (30%). Another peak next Wednesday through at least Thursday (along a cold front).

2. Are organized severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. Thunderstorms, during the summer months, can produce isolated gusty winds. Organized severe weather is not anticipated. I am watching a cold front towards the middle and end of next week. Some of the storms along that front could be intense. I am monitoring trends in the guidance.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED. Slow-moving summer storms can produce torrential downpours that can briefly flood ditches and roadways.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? YES. Temperatures are expected to be in the nineties through next Wednesday.

6. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like) rise above 100 degrees? YES. Heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees are expected to be in the forecast through next Wednesday. Locally higher. Areas with clouds and rain will be a bit lower.

8. Will the heat index rise above 115 degrees? LOW RISK.

Here is a graphic that shows you high temperatures and heat index values. Find the city nearest to you.

Notice the warmest temperatures will arrive early next week.

Double-click on this image to enlarge.

Warnings and advisories. They may extend this into the weekend.

Double-click on this image to enlarge.

A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

Forecast discussion.

Hot and muggy weather is expected to continue into next week.
The hottest air temperatures of the year are likely to occur on Monday through Wednesday. Mid to upper nineties.
Isolated thunderstorms will bring relief to a few counties. Many areas will remain dry.
July thunderstorms can produce strong and gusty winds. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, as well.
Thunderstorm chances will increase slightly tomorrow into Sunday along a stalled frontal boundary.
I am watching a frontal boundary towards the middle/end of next week. That should bring some relief from the heat.
Questions remain on how long the “somewhat” cooler and less humid air will linger late next week.

Good morning, everyone.

Welcome to the weekend! Wow, August is almost here.

It is going to be a hot and muggy weekend.

No significant changes were made to the going forecast. More of the same. Hot and muggy weather through next Wednesday.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible today in the region. Most areas will remain dry.

We do have slightly higher thunderstorm chances tomorrow and Sunday. I capped the rain probabilities at 30%.

A few locations will pick up a heavy thunderstorm. Storms will be accompanied by frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty winds.

Let me show you the current NWS rain probability maps.

Remember, a 20% chance of thunderstorms during the summer months usually means someone will have a gullywasher, but many areas will remain dry. It does not mean that it won’t rain on your picnic.

Take the general idea from these numbers.

Friday 7 AM to 7 PM rain probabilities (%)

Saturday 7 AM to Friday 7 PM rain probabilities (%)

Sunday 7 AM to 7 PM rain probabilities (%)

We will have another chance of thunderstorms along the cold front next week. I am watching Wednesday through Friday.

The ridge of high pressure is causing a large portion of the USA to bake in typical summer heat. Humidity levels are higher than usual. That is why it feels awful outside.

This is today’s high temperature forecast. Hot and muggy. Tomorrow and Sunday will be similar.

Double-click this image to enlarge it.

Check out Monday’s high temperature forecast. Even hotter temperatures.

Tuesday’s high temperatures. Hot.

Now, check out the temperatures for next Thursday. Look to the north. Cooler air is pushing southward.

That cooler air shows up on the temperature anomaly maps. Anomly shows you how many degrees above or below average temperatures will be.

Here is the anomaly outlook for next Tuesday. Our temperatures are expected to be well above average. The red zone shows that. Red is above average temperatures.

Now, look at next Thursday. The blue is drifting southward into our region. Those are below-average temperatures. Some relief from the heat.

Those temperatures will continue to push into our region next Friday and Saturday as well.

Not the best short-range forecast for those of you who are tired of the heat and humidity.

Check out the extended forecast. Our hottest weather of the year is expected to arrive early next week.

This graphic is for Paducah (central location). The rest of the region shows similar numbers. We expect temperatures to reach the mid-to-upper nineties by Monday and Tuesday. Then, finally, somewhat cooler temperatures are expected late next week.

This is the EC model.

The GFS model shows a few days with somewhat cooler temperatures. Notice that the GFS heats things fairly rapidly. There is disagreement on this topic.

How long will the somewhat cooler temperatures linger?

Some data shows two or three days. Some data shows five or six days. This portion of the forecast remains uncertain. Hopefully, the cooler temperatures linger.

Double-click the image to enlarge it.

This is the GFS model.

Don’t forget to check on the elderly during this heat wave.

Use care in the heat. Remember the signs of heat illness.

Don’t forget to check on the elderly during this extended period of heat.

Change your pets’ water bowls frequently, as well.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
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