Tuesday:
Another hot and muggy day for the region, but relief is on the way.
A few scattered thunderstorms today. Storms that form will produce frequent lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds. Many areas will remain dry, but a few locations will have a gully washer.
Wednesday will deliver more of the same.
Highs today and Wednesday will be in the 90’s. Heat index values of 98 to 106 degrees.
A cold front enters our region on Thursday and Thursday night. Showers and storms will develop ahead of the front on Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Some storms could be intense late Wednesday night over our northern counties. Those storms will slide south and east into the rest of our region on Thursday and Thursday night.
Northern counties on Wednesday night would include areas from Perry County, Missouri, towards Marion, Illinois, and then towards Evansville. From there northward will have the best chance for thunderstorms.
Some of the storms could produce damaging winds late Wednesday night into Thursday/Thursday night.
We should dry out on Friday. Perhaps a few lingering storms, but the trend has been drier.
Beautiful camping weather Friday night, Saturday, and Sunday. Lower dew points, lower humidity, lower temperatures. Should feel MUCH MUCH nicer outside.
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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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July 24, 2017
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. Isolated storm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: Variable at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for strong winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
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July 25, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Warm and humid. Isolated storms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 94 IL ~ 86 to 94 KY ~ 88 to 94 TN ~ 88 to 94
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lighting.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 25, 2017
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: East and southeast winds at 4 to 8 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lighting.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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July 26, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96 IL ~ 90 to 95 KY ~ 92 to 96 TN ~ 92 to 96
Winds: South and southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lighting.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. An increasing chances for thunderstorms moving in from the northwest and north. Some storms could produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Greater risk over the northern half of southeast Missouri and northern half of southern Illinois. The line would then move southward, but may weaken as it moves further and further south.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning, Gusty winds near storms. Heavy downpours possible. Dime size hail possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? I can’t rule out damaging winds over the northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous, especially late across the northern half of the region. Lesser chances the further and further south you travel.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
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July 27, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some storms could be intense.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 22 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways. Storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Some storms could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain is possible.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and locally heavy thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph. Winds becoming variable in direction.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways. Storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Some storms could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Some storms are likely.
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July 28, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A few remaining storms possible over our southern counties near the Missouri/Arkansas line and the Kentucky/Tennessee line. I believe precipitation will be winding down on Friday morning.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: Winds becoming north and northeast at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways. Storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds. Lower confidence on Friday’s forecast.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Precipitation coming to an end.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Turning cooler and less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Storms should be ending.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Precipitation should have come to an end.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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July 29, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cooler. Less muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 75 to 80 TN ~ 75 to 80
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Less humid. Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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July 30, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Nice. Not as humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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July 31, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 84 IL ~ 80 to 84 KY ~ 80 to 84 TN ~ 80 to 84
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 1, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warmer. A slight chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: Northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: East winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Monday night through Wednesday night: Isolated summer pop-up storms are possible into Wednesday. Some of the storms will produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.
There is a chance greater coverage on Wednesday afternoon and night. A cold front will slowly push into the region from the north. A few storms could be strong. The best chance for stronger storms will be over northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. Monitor updates.
Thursday through Friday night: Thunderstorms are likely on Thursday and Thursday night. They may linger into Friday. Some of the storms could become severe. Torrential rain is possible with an extremely moist atmosphere. Storms will also produce frequent lightning and strong winds. Monitor updates concerning the potential for severe weather and heavy rain.
Saturday through Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Get ready. Get set. Relief is on the way (did I hear some cheers from the back of the room). We just have to wait a few more days.
Heat and higher dew points will be with us through Thursday. It might not be quite as bad as last week, but still uncomfortable for those working outdoors. This is especially true for southeast Missouri, extreme southern Illinois, far western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
The higher temperatures and dew points will remain with us on Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front moves into the region late Wednesday night into Thursday night. This front will become the focus for showers and heavy thunderstorms. I will be monitoring for a few severe thunderstorms, as well.
Wednesday
Thursday
There will be no lack of moisture with the incoming system. Dew points will rise into the 70’s ahead of the front. CAPE values of 2000 to 3000. Lift index values of -6 or lower. PWAT values of 2.4″ or higher. All of that spells trouble.
The main concern will be a few reports of damaging winds and torrential rain. PWAT values will be high ahead of this cold front. Remember, PWAT values are a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere. Numbers above 2.4″ are considered extreme. Slow moving storms, on Wednesday night into Thursday night, could produce 1.5 to 3″ of rain per hour.
Click to enlarge
PWAT value map for Thursday evening. High numbers.
There is the possibility of some training storms with this system. IF that happens, then flash flooding will be a concern. Widespread flash flooding is not anticipated. Pockets of problems, however, will be a concern.
Training is when thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same areas.
There will be enough wind shear to help some of the storms become severe. Damaging winds will be the concern. The hail risk is not zero, but is not all that great. The tornado risk will be low.
A few severe thunderstorm warnings are possible Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Check out the Thursday evening dew points. Very high numbers. MUGGY!
This is ahead of the cold front.
Sunday dew points. Notice how much lower they are. Nicer, much nicer. Dew points control that muggy feel to the air.
Dew point scale.
The greatest time frame for concern will be as early as Wednesday night over the northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. Then, on Thursday, the cold front will sag further south. Additional showers and heavy thunderstorms will push into the rest of our region.
CAPE numbers for Wednesday at 7 pm.
CAPE is a measure of instability. Higher numbers typically mean a better chance for strong to severe thunderstorms. CAPE is energy for thunderstorms.
Learn more about CAPE here ~ Click
Wednesday evening numbers range from 2000 to 3000+. Those are high numbers. IF storms can move into the area then damaging winds would be a concern. Down-burst winds, as well.
CAPE numbers for Thursday at 7 pm
Numbers are not quite as large as Wednesday, but still sufficient for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms.
Future-cast radar from the NAM. Remember, this is just one models opinion. These future-cast radars are never exact. It just gives you an idea of what might happen.
Wednesday 10 pm
We will need to monitor a line of storms to our north on Wednesday night. Some of these storms could produce damaging winds. They will move from the north/northwest towards the south/southeast.
Click images to enlarge
This image is for Wednesday night at 10 pm.
This image is for Thursday at 4 am
This image is for 10 am on Thursday
This image is for Thursday at 4 pm
Showers and thunderstorms should continue into Thursday night and perhaps Friday. Friday is a bit of a wild card. Friday’s weather will depend on how fast the front exits.
Rainfall totals of 0.50″ to 1.50″ are anticipated with the potential for a few spots to receive more than three inches of rain. Monitor updates concerning the heavy rain potential.
The GREAT news is the cooler and less humid air will arrive by Friday and especially on Saturday and Sunday. Below normal temperatures are likely on Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
Keep in mind, there is lower than normal confidence on the exact numbers for Friday into the weekend. GFS is painting 70’s for high temperatures. Could that happen? Yes. I would say lower to middle 80’s would be the higher end numbers. If things pan out, then seventies are on the table.
We can hope! Much needed break.
Friday
Saturday
Sunday temperatures
The jet stream will take a dive from northwest to southeast. We call this northwest flow. That places our region in the nicer dew points (it won’t feel as muggy) and lower temperatures.
Some of the models are developing a cut-off low on Monday and Tuesday. Cut-off lows can increase cloud cover and produce spotty showers. They are also responsible for cooler temperatures. I am not sold on the cut-off low idea, but I am monitoring trends in the data.
I think we deserve a break from the heat. We are about to receive just that. Collective cheers?
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
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- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
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WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
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