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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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July 23, 2017
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. Scattered storms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: West and southwest at 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 12 mph. Winds becoming west. Winds variable at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated to scattered lightning, wet roadways, gusty winds, and downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for high winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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July 24, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Isolated thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94 IL ~ 88 to 94 KY ~ 88 to 94 TN ~ 88 to 94
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated to scattered lightning, wet roadways, gusty winds, and downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated damaging winds possible
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. Isolated storm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: Variable at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for strong winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
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July 25, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Warm and humid. Isolated storms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 94 IL ~ 86 to 94 KY ~ 88 to 94 TN ~ 88 to 94
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lighting.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: East and southeast winds at 4 to 8 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lighting.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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July 26, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 95 IL ~ 90 to 95 KY ~ 92 to 96 TN ~ 92 to 96
Winds: South and southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lighting.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. An increasing chances for thunderstorms moving in from the northwest and north. Some storms could produce heavy rain and gusty winds. Greater risk over the northern half of southeast Missouri and northern half of southern Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning, Gusty winds near storms. Heavy downpours possible. Dime size hail possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? I can’t rule out damaging winds over the northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous, especially late across the northern half of the region. Lesser chances the further and further south you travel.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
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July 27, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some storms could be heavy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways. Storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Some storms could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain is possible.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and locally heavy thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph. Winds becoming variable in direction.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways. Storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Some storms could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Some storms are likely.
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July 28, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and locally heavy thunderstorms. Low confidence.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: Winds becoming north and northeast at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways. Storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds. Lower confidence on Friday’s forecast.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Some storms could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous, but low confidence.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Turning cooler and less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Storms should be ending.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Precipitation should have come to an end.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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July 29, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cooler. Less muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 75 to 80 TN ~ 75 to 80
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Less humid. Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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July 30, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Nice. Not as humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 78 to 84 TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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July 31, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 78 to 84 TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Sunday night through Wednesday night: A few thunderstorms are possible, but widespread thunderstorm activity appears unlikely. A few of the storms will produce strong and gusty winds. Storms will also produce frequent lightning and heavy rain. The threat for severe weather is low, but not zero. Damaging winds would be the main concern.
Thursday through Friday night: Thunderstorms will be possible. Some storms could become severe. A cold front will push into the region on Thursday and Friday. This will provide lift. The lift will help produce thunderstorms.
The atmosphere will have CAPE values will top 2000, wind shear will be available, and PWAT values topping 2.4″. This could mean torrential downpours and some reports of damaging winds. Prolific lightning is also likely. Monitor updates.
Saturday and Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday night was quite stormy. Severe storms moved across southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky. Some locations picked up more than two inches of rain. There were also reports of damaging winds. There was a lot of energy in the atmosphere between 12 am and 6 am.
A tornado warning was issued just northeast of my forecast counties. That storms produced quite a bit of wind damage. It had an impressive signature on radar. Most likely a QLCS tornado occurred with it.
The disturbance that delivered those thunderstorms is still draped across our region. This boundary could help spark some more storms over the next 24 hours. Storms are not anticipated to be widespread, but at least a few on radar from time to time.
Storms that form, in this atmosphere, could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and torrential downpours. Isolated damaging wind reports are also possible. Organized severe weather appears unlikely. If storms threaten then move indoors until the threat passes. Cloud to ground lightning has been an issue over the past few weeks.
Monday through Wednesday night
More hot and muggy weather is on tap for the region. High temperatures Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will top out in the lower to middle 90’s. Dew points will remain high. That means heat index values in the 100 to 108 degree range. Not the best weather for outdoor activities.
A few isolated storms are possible Monday through Wednesday. The best chances would likely be during the afternoon and evening hours. Typical for the summer months. Lesser chances late at night and during the morning hours.
Thursday and Friday
A welcome cold front will push into the region on Thursday and Friday. This front will bump into the hot and muggy air and help trigger showers and heavy thunderstorms.
PWAT values will be near record levels. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmospheric column. PWAT values above 2.4″ will be possible. If this occurs, then torrential rain will be a concern. Flash flooding would also be a concern.
Here is the GFS PWAT value map for Thursday. These are very high numbers.
The key is at the bottom of the graphic. Click image to enlarge. Some of these numbers are topping 2.5″.
Questions remain on coverage of precipitation. Will there be a solid band of storms or a broken band of storms. How fast will it move. Will the cold front remain in the area until Friday night. These questions will need to be answered over the coming days.
I would suggest monitoring updates concerning the Thursday and Friday forecast.
Saturday and Sunday:
Finally! Fingers crossed. The cold front should push to our south. If this happens then we should have somewhat cooler air and perhaps lower dew points. That could also mean periodic thunderstorm chances. Typically, during the summer months, thunderstorms ride along the edge of the ridge of high pressure.
Precipitation chances, for the time being, will be kept low on Saturday and Sunday. This will, however, be subject to adjustments.
The key to where precipitation will occur will be determined by how far south the cold front pushes. The further south it pushes the better for our region (better meaning lower rain chances and less muggy).
I know some of you need rain. Let’s see how Thursday and Friday unfold. Perhaps some of you will pick up enough rain to help your cause. I am concerned some of the rain will heavy. Much of it may not soak into the ground.
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
