Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Good morning, everyone.

It’s essentially Groundhog Day in the weather department (a great movie, if you haven’t watched it).

More of the same.  Hot.  Muggy.  Humid.  Isolated thunderstorms.

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No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

The big weather story will continue to be the heat.  Highs will be in the nineties this week.  Heat index values will range from 100 to 110 degrees.  Locally, 110 to 115 degrees.

You can see the heat on this advisory/warning map.  A large area of NWS heat products.

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The only relief will be isolated areas of clouds and thunderstorms.  That will shave a few degrees off the thermometer.  Otherwise, it will be hot.

Check out the lightning strikes from the past 24 hours.  You can see where storms developed.   They extend northwest to southeast along a stalled weak boundary.  That is why the lightning is lined up.  That boundary hasn’t moved in the past two days.

The ridge of high pressure is causing a large portion of the USA to bake in summer heat.

This is today’s high temperature forecast.  Toasty.

Double click this image to enlarge it.

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Not the best forecast for those of you who are tired of the heat and humidity.

The reason for the heat is a ridge of high pressure.  Some people refer to this as a heat dome.  Either way, it spells hot weather for our region.

It keeps the bulk of the thunderstorms to our north (along the edge of the heat).  It pushes the jet stream northward, away from our region.

This is what the heat ridge looks like today and will look like into early next week.

To bring about a change in the forecast, we need the high-pressure center to shift westward and weaken.  That may happen next week.

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You can see that shift on this weather map.   Some data breaks it down as early as next Wednesday.  I will be monitoring trends in the guidance.

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Don’t forget to check on the elderly during this heat wave.

Use care in the heat.  Remember the signs of heat illness.

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Don’t forget to check on the elderly during this extended period of heat.

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Change your pets’ water bowls frequently, as well.

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I am watching a weak frontal boundary this weekend.  Rain probabilities will be a bit higher on Saturday and Sunday.  For now, however, I kept them around 20 to 30%.  Those numbers could increase as confidence in the final forecast grows.

It will remain hot and muggy into the weekend and likely into next week.  Typical summer weather.

I am watching a cold front towards the middle of next week.  This front could bring relief from the heat.

Let me show you the current NWS rain probability maps.

Remember, a 20% chance of thunderstorms during the summer months usually means someone will have a gullywasher, but many areas will remain dry.  It does not mean that it won’t rain on your picnic.

Take the general idea from these numbers.

These numbers may vary a bit in the daily video.  I gave the average chance area-wide on the video update.

Wednesday 7 AM to 7 PM rain probabilities (%)

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 I will be monitoring Friday through Sunday.  Thunderstorm chances may increase slightly.  For now, I kept them around thirty-perfect.  

Friday 7 AM to Friday 7 PM rain probabilities (%)

Friday night 7 PM to 7 AM rain probabilities (%)

Saturday 7 AM to Saturday 7 PM rain probabilities (%)

Saturday 7 PM to Sunday 7 AM rain probabilities

Sunday 7 AM to Sunday 7 PM rain probabilities (%)

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model

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