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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. A good chance for thunderstorms developing from the north and moving south. Some of the storms will produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, and strong/gusty winds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty winds possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways. Gusty winds near storms. Isolated damaging wind threat.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated damaging winds possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 23, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and muggy. Heat index above 100. Scattered thunderstorms are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 95 IL ~ 90 to 95 KY ~ 90 to 95 TN ~ 90 to 95
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph. Winds becoming southwest and west.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways. Heavy downpours. Strong winds with some storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated high wind threat.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. Scattered storms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: West and southwest at 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 12 mph. Winds becoming west. Winds variable at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated to scattered lightning, wet roadways, gusty winds, and downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for high winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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July 24, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Isolated thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94 IL ~ 88 to 94 KY ~ 88 to 94 TN ~ 88 to 94
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated to scattered lightning, wet roadways, gusty winds, and downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated damaging winds possible
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. Isolated storm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for strong winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
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July 25, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Warm and humid. Isolated storms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94 IL ~ 88 to 94 KY ~ 88 to 94 TN ~ 88 to 94
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lighting.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: Variable winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lighting.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 26, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94 IL ~ 88 to 94 KY ~ 88 to 94 TN ~ 88 to 94
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lighting.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. An isolated storm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lighting
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 27, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny early. Partly cloudy afternoon. A chance for showers and thunderstorms developing from the north.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways. Storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Some storms could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and locally heavy thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways. Storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Some storms could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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July 28, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A good chance for showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty winds, at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways. Storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Some storms could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways. Locally heavy rain possible. Strong winds near storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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July 29, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Not as warm. Less muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: North and northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Less humid. Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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July 30, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: North and northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Saturday night through Monday night: Thunderstorms will be possible. Some of the storms could produce frequent cloud to ground lightning, heavy downpours, strong and gusty winds, and dime size hail.
I can’t rule out isolated damaging wind gusts. The atmosphere will be quite unstable. Thankfully, wind fields won’t be all that impressive. This should keep the severe weather concerns to a minimum.
Saturday night
A disturbance will push in from the north tonight. A band of heavy thunderstorms will develop and move from the north towards the south. Some of the storms will produce frequent lightning, heavy rain, and strong winds. There is a small risk for damaging winds.
Temperatures tonight will remain in the middle to upper 70’s.
Sunday will deliver more hot and muggy weather. We may have some scattered thunderstorms. If storms form, they could be heavy.
The chance for scattered storms will extend into Monday, but coverage is not anticipated to be all that great.
I am monitoring a cold front for Thursday. High PWAT values will pool along and ahead of this front. That could mean heavy downpours. Some of the model data indicates extremely high PWAT values. If that were to verify then flash flooding would be a concern. Still a bit early for confidence on the eventual outcome. It is something I am monitoring.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
