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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Daily chances.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Lower end risk. Typical summer thunderstorms. Down-burst wind will be the primary concern. If a thunderstorm line or complex forms then damaging wind chances will increase.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Slow moving storms will produce heavy rain. Pockets of flash flooding may occur.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index values from 100 to 105 (locally higher) are likely outside of cloudy areas.
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July 21, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms developing. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° West KY 90° to 94° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 102°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat. Wet roadways and lightning, Locally heavy rain could cause some brief flash flooding. Isolated wind damage. Gusty wind near storms. High heat index values. Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Sunset: 8:12 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Warm. Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° MO 72° to 74° South IL 72° to 75° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° West KY 72° to 75° NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Humid. Locally heavy thunderstorms with torrential downpours, gusty wind, and lightning. Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 6:37 AM
Moonset: 9:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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July 22, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms developing. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 88° to 94° South IL 88° to 94° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° West KY 90° to 94° NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat. Wet roadways and lightning, Locally heavy rain could cause some brief flash flooding. Isolated wind damage. Gusty wind near storms. High heat index values. Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
Sunset: 8:11 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Warm. Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° MO 72° to 74° South IL 72° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° West KY 72° to 74° NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Humid. Locally heavy thunderstorms with torrential downpours, gusty wind, and lightning. Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 7:46 AM
Moonset: 10:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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July 23, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms developing. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 94° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° West KY 90° to 94° NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat. Wet roadways and lightning, Locally heavy rain could cause some brief flash flooding. Isolated wind damage. Gusty wind near storms. High heat index values. Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Sunset: 8:10 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of thunderstorms. Warm. Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Humid. Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 8:56 AM
Moonset: 10:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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July 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms developing. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° SE MO 88° to 94° South IL 88° to 94° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° West KY 90° to 94° NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat. Wet roadways and lightning, Locally heavy rain could cause some brief flash flooding. Isolated wind damage. Gusty wind near storms. High heat index values. Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Sunset: 8:10 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm. Warm. Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° MO 72° to 75° South IL 72° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° West KY 72° to 74° NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Humid. Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 10:07 AM
Moonset: 11:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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July 25, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms developing. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 88° to 94° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° West KY 90° to 94° NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat. Wet roadways and lightning, Locally heavy rain could cause some brief flash flooding. Isolated wind damage. Gusty wind near storms. High heat index values. Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunset: 8:09 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Warm. Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Humid. Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 11:16 AM
Moonset: 11:38 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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July 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 94° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° West KY 90° to 94° NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat. Wet roadways and lightning, Locally heavy rain could cause some brief flash flooding. Isolated wind damage. Gusty wind near storms. High heat index values. Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Sunset: 8:08 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Isolated thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° MO 73° to 76° South IL 73° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° West KY 73° to 76° NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Humid. Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 12:26 PM
Moonset: 12:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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July 27, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 94° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° West KY 90° to 94° NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat. Wet roadways and lightning, Locally heavy rain could cause some brief flash flooding. Isolated wind damage. Gusty wind near storms. High heat index values. Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Sunset: 8:07 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Humid. Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 1:34 PM
Moonset: 12:10 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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What is the UV index?
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- Highs in the upper 80s to middle 90s this week. Heat concerns.
- Locally heavy rain will be the primary concern.
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Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.
Click graphics to enlarge them.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through July 27th: We will have a chance of thunderstorms today into at least Thursday. After that, the storm chances are lower.
Some of the thunderstorms will produce torrential rain, frequent lightning, strong and gusty wind, and dime size hail. There is a chance of a few damaging wind reports, as well.
Down-burst wind will be the primary concern.
Down-burst winds are not uncommon during July.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated July 21, 2020
Thunderstorms will produce lightning and heavy rain/strong wind over the coming days. If you have outdoor plans then you will want to check the weather radars.
Heat index values will range from 96 to 106 degrees. Muggy weather. Use care when working outdoors, as always.
Don’t leave pets, children, or adults in hot cars. Cars can rapidly heat to above 115 degrees in this kind of weather. Use common sense, as always.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- High heat index values. Use care.
- Daily chances of at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
- Heat to continue into next week. Multiple days with 90 degrees and above. Multiple days with heat index values of 100 and above.
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The heat will continue this week. Highs in the 90s with heat index from 96 to 106 degrees. Summer heat.
The one saving grace will be the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Clouds will also shave a few degrees off the thermometers.
A cold front will stall out over our region over the next couple of days.
That front will be the focus for repeated chances of showers and thunderstorms. The placement of the front is important as far as coverage and intensity of the rain.
There is also a chance that some of the thunderstorms will produce damaging wind gusts.
Rain totals will vary GREATLY. Same as last week.
Some locations had over four inches of rain while neighboring counties received no rain at all. Feast or famine weather. That is normal during the summer months.
Rain totals this week will top three or four inches in some locations. Some locations may receive less than 0.25″. It is, of course, impossible to forecast how much rain will fall at location X, Y, and Z. Summer storms just aren’t like that.
Flash flooding is likely where the heavier thunderstorms occur. Avoid flooded roadways.
See the detailed day to day forecast at the top of the blog for specifics.
The ridge of high pressure (heat dome) will build back into the region Thursday into the weekend. That means less precipitation. Heat and high dew points, as well. Uncomfortable weather for those who have to work outside.
Summer continues!
Know the signs of heat illness.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoo
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly. Keep that in mind.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly. Keep that in mind.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly. Keep that in mind.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly. Keep that in mind.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers July 21st through July 27th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers July 28th through August 3rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.60″
This outlook covers August 4th through August 17th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
THIS WAS NOT UPDATED TODAY (Tuesdsay)
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Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Click on the images to enlarge them
July Precipitation
Click on the images to enlarge them
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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