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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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July 20, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and muggy. A slight chance for an evening storm. Most will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South and southwest winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 21, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Heat index above 104. An isolated storm possible. Most will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96 IL ~ 92 to 96 KY ~ 92 to 96 TN ~ 92 to 96
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Small chance for lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and muggy. An isolated evening storm possible. Most will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
Winds: South and southwest winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Small chance for lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 22, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. An isolated storm possible. Heat index above 102 degrees.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96 IL ~ 92 to 96 KY ~ 92 to 96 TN ~ 92 to 96
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Small chance for lightning and wet roadways. with lightning and downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and warm. Muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
Winds: South and southwest at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Small chance for lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 23, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and muggy. Heat index above 100. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96 IL ~ 92 to 96 KY ~ 92 to 96 TN ~ 92 to 96
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. Isolated storms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Small chance for lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 24, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 5 to 10 mph. Winds becoming variable.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
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July 25, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Perhaps not as warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: Variable winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 26, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL ~ 80 to 85 KY ~ 80 to 85 TN ~ 80 to 85
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Perhaps lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Thursday night through Sunday: Organized severe weather is not anticipated. Typical summer pop-up storms are possible, but many will remain dry.
Hot and then hot. Muggy and more muggy. That sums up our weather. No real change for the coming days. Typical summer heat for our region. It is wearing on people. Several days of 90+ degree weather and 100+ heat index values will certainly wear a person down.
Use care, as always. Heat illnesses are common in this type of weather. Be sure and know the warning signs. I will post them below.
There will be a daily chance for one or two storms popping up. Typical summer type storms. Isolated areas may pick up a brief downpour. The vast majority of the region will remain dry through Saturday. Some of us could use a bit of rain.
We may see some increase in thunderstorms on Sunday into Monday night. Questions, however, remain on coverage.
There have been some indications of somewhat cooler and less humid air next week.
This ridge of high pressure is large. This ridge is responsible for our heat and high dew points. Again, this is typical for the summer months.
If the ridge does break down, then we might enter northwest flow. Northwest flow is when the jet stream dives down into the Ohio Valley. This can increase shower and thunderstorm activity. We shall see.
No promises on slightly cooler weather. As a matter of fact, here is the 16 day GFS high and low temperature map. Models have done poorly this summer, but here it is
Temperatures over the coming days. Notice that we may see some drop towards next week. Low confidence on that happening.
Friday high temperatures
Saturday high temperatures
Sunday high temperatures
Monday high temperatures
Tuesday high temperatures
Wednesday high temperatures
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
