July 20 and 21, 2019: Quick subscribers update.

Updated these graphics for the week ahead.

Click the graphics to expand them.

Good morning.

I updated the long range graphics (below).

I am on a retreat in Pennsylvania with my brother. I just wanted to update you on the risk of a few storms today and a strong cold front that arrives on Sunday night/Monday.

Just a reminder, I am on retreat with my brother in eastern Pennsylvania. I won’t be able to check Facebook constantly. I will check it a couple of times today.

If you have questions then I will answer them when I have some free time.

I left the weather machine on repeat for today.

Most people don’t realize that your body cares more about the feels like/heat index number than the actual temperature.

Your body responds to the heat index. That is why it is important to tell you the heat index values. This is the same as wind chill values.

A fairly typical July heat spell across the Ohio Valley. With that said, heat kills more people than tornadoes. Use common sense if you have to be out in it.

See the “know the signs of heat illness” in the image section below. Quite interesting.

Remember, often times elderly people don’t like to use their air-condition. Check on your elderly friends.

Most people do not know that the impacts of heat are cumulative. That means that day two takes a greater toll than day one.

There could be some isolated storms pop up this afternoon. Perhaps a slightly higher chance of that across western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.

Most of the area will be dry with highs in the lower 90s. Heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees.

A strong cold front arrives tomorrow night and Monday.

Scattered strong storms are possible Sunday afternoon and then thunderstorms are likely along the cold front.

The front will push through the region on Monday.

MUCH nicer air follows this strong cold front.

Highs Tuesday into Friday will likely remain in the upper 70s to middle 80s. Dew points will fall into the comfortable level. That means it won’t feel muggy.

Next weeks air-mass is unusual for late July. Let’s enjoy it!

Radars http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

BAMwx makes videos for you. These are bonus videos.

Here is today’s Illinois video. It also covers neighboring areas.

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Friday: Heat index values above 105. Isolated storm chance. Lightning would be the concern.
Saturday: Heat index values above 105. Isolated storm chance. Lightning would be the concern.
Sunday: Heat index values above 105. A few thunderstorms. Lightning would be the concern. Strong winds with storms.
Monday: Thunderstorms are possible. Lightning and gusty winds.
Tuesday: No concerns, at this time.
Wednesday: No concerns, at this time.

Hot and muggy weather the rest of the week into the weekend. Highs in the 90s with heat index values above 105 degrees.
River flooding continues in some areas. Low-land flooding.

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Friday through Sunday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Friday and Saturday will likely deliver only isolated storm chances. Sunday is when a cold front arrives. We should have storms ahead of the front. Right now that appears to be Sunday evening/night into Monday. Some of the models have sped the front up a bit. For now, I am forecasting the front to pass through the area on Sunday night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Not at this time. I will keep a close eye on Sunday afternoon into Monday. There will likely be some storms along the cold front. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index values on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will rise above 100 degrees. Some locations will likely hit 105 to 110 degrees.

Monday through Thursday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A few storms are possible on Monday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. I am monitoring Sunday night and Monday. A cold front will push through the area. Some storms will likely accompany the front.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? No.

Click here

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County Maps: Click Here

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No significant adjustments.

What changes might occur in the forecast?

Thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday will need to be monitored. A cold front will move into the region.

July 19, 2019
I am traveling to the northeast today. I will post the videos and long range asap.
Friday’s Forecast: Heat alert. Mostly sunny. Summer heat and mugginess. High heat index values. Some cumulus clouds. Any thunderstorms would be isolated in nature. Most of the area will dry.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95° SE MO 92° to 95° South IL 92° to 95° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95° West KY 92° to 95° NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 104° to 108°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 10% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. A small chance of an isolated storm.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Excessively hot. An isolated thunderstorm would produce lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be uncomfortable outside with high heat index values.
UV Index: 10 to 11 very high
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A slight chance of an evening isolated thunderstorm. Summer mugginess. Warm. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° SE MO 74° to 76° South IL 74° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 78°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 10% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. A small chance of an isolated storm.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some patchy fog could reduce visibility. A slight chance of isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:14 PM
Moonrise: 10:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:13 AM

July 20, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: Heat alert. Mostly sunny. Summer heat and mugginess. High heat index values. Some cumulus clouds. Any thunderstorms would be isolated in nature. Most of the area will dry.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95° SE MO 92° to 95° South IL 92° to 95° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95° West KY 92° to 95° NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind 7 to 14 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 104° to 108°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 10% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. A small chance of an isolated storm.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most of the region. An isolated thunderstorm would produce lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be uncomfortable outside with high heat index values. Check radars during the afternoon.
UV Index: 10 to 11 very high
Sunrise: 5:50 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A slight chance of an evening isolated thunderstorm. Summer mugginess. Warm. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° SE MO 74° to 76° South IL 74° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 78°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 10% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. A small chance of an isolated storm.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Excessively hot. Some patchy fog could reduce visibility. A slight chance of isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:13 PM
Moonrise: 10:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:10 AM

July 21, 2019.
Sunday’s Forecast: Heat alert. Hot and muggy. Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon. A cold front is going to push into the region late in the day or Sunday night. A few storms will accompany the front.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95° SE MO 92° to 95° South IL 92° to 95° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95° West KY 92° to 95° NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 104° to 108°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: A few showers or storms are possible during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values. Perhaps a few wet roadways and lightning during the afternoon. Perhaps better chances Sunday night along an incoming cold front.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be uncomfortable outside with high heat index values. Monitor radars late in the day.
UV Index: 10 to 11 very high
Sunrise: 5:50 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms along an incoming cold front.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 66° to 72° NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Wind becoming west and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Brief heavy downpours. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:13 PM
Moonrise: 10:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:10 AM

Monday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms are possible during the day. Clearing at night. Cooler. High ranging from 83 to 86 degrees. Lows in the 63 to 66-degree range. West wind 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Medium confidence. Mostly sunny. Cooler and less humid. High ranging from 80 to 85 degrees. Lows in the 60 to 65-degree range. Northwest wind 6 to 12 mph.

Wednesday: Medium confidence. Mostly sunny. High ranging from 82 to 84 degrees. Lows in the 63 to 66-degree range. North/Northwest wind 6 to 12 mph.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Click to enlarge

Wind forecast

Click to enlarge

Click the graphics to expand them.

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Kentucky

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Tennessee

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Friday through Wednesday: I am tracking a cold front that could push into the area late Sunday and Monday. This would increase thunderstorm chances. Severe weather is not anticipated on Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday of next week.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

Light green is not assigned a number. Light green is where storms may occur but should be below severe levels.

A severe storm is one that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado. One or more of those is defined as a severe thunderstorm.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s outlook.

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk. Light green is not assigned a number.

Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for tornadoes, severe storms, and winter storms.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com

Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Days one through seven added together. Seven-day rainfall totals.

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Hot and muggy weather is the big weather story. Thankfully, this may not last long!
I am tracking a cold front that could arrive late Sunday or Monday. This will bring some relief for next week.

Click image to enlarge it.

Current conditions.

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Weather
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Advice:

Summer heat is going to be an issue over the coming days.

Heat index values may occasionally top 105 degrees. I can’t rule out some 110-degree heat index readings.

Use care in the heat.

Weather Forecast Analysis.

Today through Tuesday

Clouds have lingered from last nights large thunderstorm complexes. There are a few showers, as well. That will thin and clear out this morning.

Last nights thunderstorm complexes were quite impressive. Diving in from the north and west. Several reports of wind damage and even some funnel clouds.

Torrential rain fell with some spots receiving one to three inches.

The forecast last week was for Barry to impact us from Saturday through Wednesday with widespread one to two inches of rain with bands of three to five inches.

I will need to wait until later this morning for the radar estimated rain totals for Saturday through Wednesday to post. I will post that tomorrow.

It is hot. That is no secret. I do have good news. This heatwave will likely end by Monday. Next week will deliver cooler temperatures and dew points will be lower. It won’t feel as muggy.

A ridge of high pressure (heat-dome) will build into the region over the coming days. When this happens, during the summer months, it means hot and muggy air.

There are small chances of isolated heat of the day thunderstorms. For the most part, the region will be dry into the weekend.

I am tracking a cold front that may near our region late on Sunday and Monday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The atmosphere will be unstable. We will need to monitor for the risk of strong storms. Damaging wind would be the primary concern.

Check out the GFS temperature anomalies.

Blue equals below normal temperatures. Next week delivers those blue colors!

Click to enlarge. This covers next week. Look at all that blue.

The EC model shows the same. There is a strong signal for a cooler air-mass next week.

For now, the forecast is dry Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.

Northwest wind flow develops behind the cold front. That means the jetstream will dive in from the northwest. Usually, this means active weather with thunderstorm chances.

This will need to be closely monitored. There is lower confidence in the dry forecast for the middle of next week.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Timestamp upper left.

Click the animation to expand it.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models are rarely exactly right on their display of future-cast radars.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
During the summer months, models do not handle thunderstorms all that well. They tend to be chaotic.

The NAM model

Nothing to view on future-cast radars.

Any storms today through Sunday will be isolated.

These maps below update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long-range video.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

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These are bonus videos for subscribers.

I pay BAMwx to help with videos.

They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

The Ohio Valley video does capture our region.

There may be some differences in the videos vs my forecast thoughts. Keep that in mind.

New videos will be posted on Friday.

I am traveling to the northeast today. I will post the videos and long range asap.

Ohio Valley video

This video is a bit more meteorologically technical. An in-depth discussion about the coming weeks.

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Long Range Video.

New videos will be posted on Friday.

I am traveling to the northeast today. I will post the videos and long range asap.

The Missouri Valley

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I bring the following long-range outlooks from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters. These are more detailed than the images above.

Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.

Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.

Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 0.90″

Yellow and orange are above normal. Red is much above normal. Light blue and blue is below normal. Green to purple is much below normal.

This outlook covers July 19th through July 25th

.The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. Brown is below normal. Green is above normal. Blue is much above normal.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees

Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 72 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers July 26th through August 1st

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 92 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.30″ to 1.60″
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This outlook covers August 2nd through August 15th

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
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July temperature outlook

The July forecast has been posted.

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July precipitation outlook

Preliminary August Outlook

and precipitation

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Fall Outlook

September

October

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied the weather in our region since the late 1970s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.

My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and a Bachelor of Science (BS).

I am an NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County rescue squad. When asked, I assist Ballard and Massac Counties, as well.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory and WeatherTalk LLC.

There is a lot of noise on the internet. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

Communicate in simple terms
To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

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WeatherBrains Episode 703

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the Chief Meteorologist at WDSU-TV in New Orleans, Louisiana. She is a graduate of Mississippi State University’s Broadcast Meteorology program and is a member of both the AMS and NWA. Margaret Orr, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Tonight’s Guest Panelist is a graduate of the University of Oklahoma and broadcast meteorologist for WLOX-TV in Biloxi, Mississippi. Eric Jeansonne, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: