July 2, 2024: Heat and storms are on the way. Some very heavy rain totals likely. A few storms could produce wind damage and hail.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. A chance of lightning Wednesday through Saturday. I will need to monitor next Sunday and Monday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? YES. Thunderstorms mid to late week could produce damaging wind gusts. I am monitoring Wednesday afternoon and night. I am monitoring Thursday and Thursday night.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? YES. Thunderstorm complexes will produce three to six+ inches of rain in a few short hours. I will be monitoring mid to late week. Pockets of flash flooding will likely develop.

In general, rain totals will range from 0.5 to 1.5″. Then, there will be the heavier pockets.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? YES. Heat index values will exceed 100 degrees Wednesday and perhaps Thursday. Thursday will depend on cloud cover. I will monitor Friday.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? POSSIBLE. We will need to monitor Wednesday. It could be close in some counties.

8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

9. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

10. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Tuesday through Tuesday night: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

South winds will bring warmer temperatures and low humidity to the Quad State today. The humidity will increase significantly Wednesday. A good chance of storms and heavy rainfall is forecast from late Wednesday through Friday. Initial south winds Wednesday will likely be quite variable through Friday when a cold front will bring cooler, drier air and north winds to the Quad State for Saturday. South winds return on Sunday.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A small chance of a late night thunderstorm towards our far northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: A small chance far north.
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none (I will monitor our far northern counties).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:27 AM
Moonset: 5:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warmer. More humid. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40% to 50%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40% to 50%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40% to 50%
Southern Illinois ~ 40% to 50%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30% to 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40% to 50%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered before 2 pm. Becoming increasingly numerous during the afternoon and evening.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly during the afternoon and evening. A lower chance before noon.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 92° to 95°
Southeast Missouri ~ 92° to 95°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 92° to 95°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 92° to 95°
Southern Illinois ~ 92° to 95°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 92° to 95°
Far western Kentucky ~ 92° to 95°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 92° to 95°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 92° to 95°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 92° to 95°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 108°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lighting. Heavy rain. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the weather radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30% to 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40% to 50%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40% to 50%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40% to 50%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 75°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:09 AM
Moonset: 6:45 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warmer. Humid. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70% to 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70% to 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50% to 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70% to 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 70% to 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70% to 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60% to 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60% to 7-%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60% to 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60% to 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 86° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lighting. Heavy rain. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B ready. Thunderstorms are possible.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous (more numerous if we have a complex of thunderstorms).
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 4:00 AM
Moonset: 7:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30% to 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50% to 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 86°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 86°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 84° to 86°
Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 88°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 88°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~84° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 84° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lighting. Heavy rain. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson weather radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20% to 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20% to 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20% to 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson weather radars.
Moonrise: 4:57 AM
Moonset: 8:41 PM
The phase of the moon: New

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Warmer today.
2. Heat values will top 100 degrees on Wednesday. Hot and muggy.
3. Locally heavy thunderstorms will produce flash flooding concerns Wednesday into Friday. A few storms could be severe with damaging wind and large hail. Frequent lightning is a concern for outdoor events.
4. Those with outdoor activities should monitor updates and radars.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

I hope you enjoyed yesterday’s weather. It sure was nice! Today will be a decent day, as well. Not quite as nice as yesterday, but still decent for July.

A warmer and muggier air-mass is moving back into the region. Today will be a bit warmer and a bit more humid.

A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible late tonight over our northern counties. Those will flirt with our northern counties. Weakening with time.

Wednesday will be hot and muggy. Highs in the 90s. Heat index values of 100 to 112 degrees. A heat advisory may need to be issued.

By Wednesday afternoon, new thunderstorms will develop over Missouri and Illinois. They will then move east southeast. Some of the storms will produce damaging wind, torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and small hail. Some severe weather will be possible. Monitor updates.

On and off thunderstorm chances will remain with us through at least Friday. A small chance Saturday. I am monitoring Sunday and Monday.

Locally very heavy rain is likely over the coming days. I expected bands of three to six+ inches of rain. That will be the exception and not the norm. Generally, the region will experience 1.00 to 2.00″ of rain.

This could lead to flash flooding. Especially where the bands of three to six+ inches occur. Avoid flooded roadways (if they develop).

I know many of you have outdoor activities over the coming days. The weather will be problematic.

The best advice, that I can give, is to go about your activities. Have a plan B. Monitor both my weather updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars. Links at the bottom of the page.

There will be thunderstorms in the region Wednesday through at least Friday. It is just a matter of exact location and amounts.

As mentioned above, I suspect there will be bands of three to six inches of rain mixed in with these MCS events. In general, the region can expect 1.00″ to 2.00″ of rain. Then, pockets of much higher totals will lead to flash flooding.

Remember last year? During July and August we experienced severe flooding from training MCS’s. Training means storms repeatedly move over the same areas. Those events produced over 20 inches of rain in some counties.

MCS’s are copious rain producers.

Here is the latest NOAA/WPC rainfall outlook. It shows bands of greater than four inches. It is virtually impossible to nail the exact location of the heaviest rain totals. We will have to see where the thunderstorm complexes develop and train. Where the training occurs, is where the big big totals will be.

Take this graphic as the general idea.

The NAM model shows some big totals, as well. A wide range of totals on this model.

PWAT values will be towards the 99% percentile. That means an extreme amount of moisture in the air. Storms will tap into those extreme PWAT values and produce gully washers.

PWAT values for Wednesday afternoon

Wednesday afternoon

Thursday morning

Thursday aftenroon

If flash flooding does develop, in a few locations, then avoid flooded roadways. Storms could produce one to three inches of rain in less than thirty minutes.

There will also be a risk of severe weather Wednesday through Friday. Some of the thunderstorms could produce 60 to 70 mph wind, nickel size hail, torrential downpours, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

If lightning threatens, then move activities indoors. As always. Use common sense storm rules.

An incredible hurricane (Beryl) continues to churn through the caribbean.

This is the strongest hurricane ever this far south. The strongest hurricane this early in the season. The lowest pressure record ever for that area. The farthest east a hurricane has ever formed this early in the season. The list continues.

It is a beast. Record breaking category five.

I will be watching it in the long range to see if some of the moisture moves into our region.

A satellite image of the eye. This was taken yesterday.

Eventual track.

I will be watching for a north northwest turn as it draws closer to Mexico. A bit early for certainties on the exact track, but I am monitoring it.

This makes it difficult for those wanting to make outdoor plans.

We will have to closely monitor the weather pattern over the coming weeks. We will be swinging between the heat ridge (dry) and MCS’s (floods). The placement of the heat dome/the heat ridge will determine where the MCS’s move.

MCS’s can bring damaging wind, as well.

Microburst winds can also occur with summer thunderstorms. Microbursts occur when thunderstorms collapse. All that air pushes downward and outward. This can cause damage to trees and power lines.

A microburst is a localized column of sinking air (downdraft) within a thunderstorm and is usually less than or equal to 2.5 miles in diameter. Microbursts can cause extensive damage at the surface, and in some instances, can be life-threatening.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.