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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Wednesday night – Flash flood watch. Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain possible. Isolated severe storms possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: Winds becoming west/southwest at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have a back up plan in case it rains.
Is severe weather expected? A strong storm possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-70% chance
What impact is expected? Heavy downpours and lightning. Can’t rule out flash flooding concerns.
Thursday – Flash flood watch. A 70% chance for morning showers and thunderstorms. Then a 40% chance during the afternoon. Locally heavy rain possible. Isolated severe storms possible.
Temperatures: Highs from 76 to 82 degrees
Winds: West/southwest winds in the morning becoming and shifting winds a bit possible during the afternoon and evening hours. Depending on where the stationary front ends up. Winds will be west/northwest north of the front and south and southwest south of the front. Speeds of 5-10 mph. Perhaps a few gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have alternative plans in case it rains.
Is severe weather expected? A strong storm possible. Isolated severe risk.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70% chance during the morning and a 40% chance during the afternoon
What impact is expected? Thunderstorms could produce heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. Can not rule out some flooding concerns…especially if we end up with some big totals on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Thursday night – Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Locally heavy rain possible. Isolated severe thunderstorm risk, as well.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: Winds becoming west/northwest at 10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have a back up plan in case it rains.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% chance
What impact is expected? If storms occur then lightning and a heavy downpour possible.
Friday – A chance for some showers and thunderstorms. Pockets of heavy rain possible
Temperatures: Highs from 78 to 84 degrees
Winds: West winds at 5-15 mph during the morning. West/northwest winds in the afternoon at 10-15 mph. Gusty winds possible at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have alternative plans in case it rains.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% chance
What impact is expected? Storms could produce lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds.
Friday night – A 30%-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: Winds becoming west/northwest at 10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have a back up plan in case it rains.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% chance
What impact is expected? If storms occur then lightning and a heavy downpour possible.
Saturday – Partly sunny. A 30% chance for thunderstorms. Any storms that form could produce heavy rain and lightning.
Temperatures: Highs from 80 to 85 degrees
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I can’t rule out some storms. But, many areas will remain dry. Don’t cancel plans, just have some towels and a jacket handy.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% chance
What impact is expected? Storms could produce lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds.
Saturday night into Sunday: A 30% chance for thunderstorms. Storms that form could be locally heavy. Lows in the 60’s and highs in the 80’s. South winds at 5 mph.
Sunday night and Monday: A 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Another good chance around Tuesday/Wednesday.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Heavy rain raises flash flood concerns for spots
2. Situations like this can cause fast moving water. Kids playing near fast moving water can be deadly. Many times flash flooding has claimed the lives of children in our region.
3. Rain chances will continue into Friday and somewhat into the weekend
4. Temperatures will remain below normal through the week
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A flash flood watch covers much of the area. Heavy rain is the main concern over the coming days.
To view the flash flood watch details, click here
Thunderstorms occurred overnight on Wednesday. Some of the storms produced large hail and possibly even a tornado in northwest Tennessee. Several reports of wind damage were received from northwest Tennessee. Some warnings were also issued for western Kentucky.
A large MCS formed over Missouri Wednesday evening and tracked into southwest Illinois by early Thursday morning. This system is responsible for the heavy rainfall totals during the past 6-12 hours in some of our counties.
Flash flooding concerns will continue into this morning. Avoid flooded roadways.
Here is what the MCS looked like at 12 am Thursday morning. The red are very cold cloud tops. This is a large thunderstorm complex (also known as an MCS)
Complexes of thunderstorms will track over the region between now and Friday evening. Some of these storms will produce torrential rainfall amounts. As mentioned, some places in our region picked up 1″-3″ of rain on Wednesday morning. Some places also picked up more than that last night.
Flash flooding is a concern. Children playing near flood waters is a deadly combination. It is summer and a holiday weekend. This is a concern. Fast moving flood waters can sweep adults and children off of their feet in seconds.
Keep in mind that often times training thunderstorms can produce very heavy rainfall in short periods of time. Where storms train is key to the flash flooding potential. Monitor updates as this will be a now-cast on Wednesday into Thursday.
The threat for severe weather on Thursday and Thursday night should be fairly small, but not zero. A couple of storms could produce high winds and hail. I am more concerned about the potential of flooding or flash flooding. Especially since much of the region is saturated (I realize some of you have not had nearly as much rain as others).
Temperatures on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be below normal. Several degrees below normal.
Normal high temperatures are around 88 degrees
Normal low temperatures are around 66 degrees
Now, one thing to keep in mind during the Month of July is that overnight lows for the first week could be closer to normal. This will be because of cloud cover and wet ground conditions.
I started talking about this cool down over a month ago! For the end of June into part of July we would see below normal temperatures and a continuation of the above normal precipitation.
The question is how long does it last? There could be a pull-back next week for a few days. Then we go normal to above normal in the temperature department. Then another cold front and trough arrives that will push us back below normal. At least for high temperatures. Sometimes it is harder to end up with below normal temperatures at night. This is because of the wet ground conditions (one reason).
Here is the Thursday forecast for high temperature anomalies. How much below normal will temperatures be?
How did temperatures average for the last 7 days? Cooler than normal over a large chunk of the eastern United States.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Fourth of July storms…will it remain dry at my picnic
2. River flooding concerns
I know many of you have plans on Friday into the weekend. I wish I could tell you that it won’t rain on your picnic or event. I can not promise you that. But, it does not look like it will rain all day and night. It does appear that scattered showers and storms will occur. Perhaps even periods of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday chances will be around 50%-70% range
Saturday chances will be in the 20%-30% range. Same for Sunday.
The chances might be greatest along the Kentucky and Tennessee border over the weekend. The front may sag a bit further south. Thus, highest rain chances could end up on the border counties.
Any storms that form could produce very heavy downpours. Some areas will probably miss out on Saturday and Sunday. But those who do end up with storms could pick up quite a bit of rain. Same as most summer type storms.
If you have outdoor plans on Friday into Sunday then have a back up plan in mind. Don’t cancel any plans or change any plans. There is still some time fine tune the forecast.
Temperatures will remain in the 80’s through the extended forecast.
Looking ahead to next week
Unsettled weather may continue into next week with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some heavy rain possible. High QPF is possible if the front stalls over our region.
The front/boundary over our region may temporarily push northward for a few days. That might mean a couple of above normal temperature days or near normal. Then another surge of below normal temperatures will arrive as a strong cold front pushes into the region towards the middle of next week. Starting the heavy rain cycle all over again.
CFS-2 temperature forecast is for July 3rd through July 13th. Averages.
River flooding continues to be an issue in our region. Recent heavy rainfall isn’t helping our cause. More heavy rain could cause additional problems.
Historically a pattern like this means multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Some storms could be heavy. I have concerns that the rivers are so high. This will need to be monitored.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Additional rain is possible today into Friday evening. Amounts will vary quite a bit, once again. Same as recent weeks.
The best chance of rain on Friday might end up over our southern counties. That would include far southeast Missouri into western Kentucky and along the KY/TN border. Not saying it won’t rain north of there, just saying the “best’ chances might be south vs north.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is a TWO for Wednesday night into Thursday.
Wednesday night Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible. Heavy rain possible. Isolated severe thunderstorm risk.
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible. Heavy rain possible. Isolated severe thunderstorm risk.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible, isolated severe thunderstorm risk.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible, but below severe levels.
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible, but below severe levels.
Heavy rain is a concern. With campers out and about…avoid flooded roadways. Also, kids should avoid all flood waters. Very dangerous with kids playing in and near fast flowing water.
Rivers will continue to remain high over the coming week. Check the lake and river stages for details.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
