Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 17, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.

    1. Your detailed day to day forecast
    2. City-view graphic-casts
    3. Severe weather outlook
    4. Forecast discussion
    5. Future-cast radars
    6. Long-range temp & precip graphics

Do you have any suggestions or comments?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Friday through Friday

1.  Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  Low risk.   Typical summer thunderstorms.  Downburst wind will be the primary concern.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater,  1″ hail or larger,  and/or tornadoes

3.  Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes.  Slow moving storms will produce heavy rain.  Pockets of flash flooding may occur.

4.  Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze?  No.

5.  Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  Yes.  Heat index values from 100 to 108 are likely outside of cloudy areas.

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July 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Friday Forecast
:  Intervals of clouds and sun.  A chance of thunderstorms.  A few storms could be heavy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~  40%    TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 95°    SE MO 90° to 95°    South IL  90° to 94°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94°    West KY 90° to 94°    NW TN 90° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat.  Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.  High heat index values.  Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:48 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of isolated thunderstorms.  Warm.  Humid. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76°     MO  74° to 76°     South IL  74° to 76°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 74°    West KY 74° to 76°     NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 2:55 AM
Moonset:  4:47 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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July 18, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Saturday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Hot and humid.  Isolated thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96°    SE MO 93° to 96°    South IL  93° to 96°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 93° to 96°    West KY 93° to 96°    NW TN 93° to 96°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.  High heat index values.  Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Warm.  Humid.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 5%    IL ~ 5%    KY ~  5%    TN ~ 5%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76°     MO  74° to 76°     South IL  74° to 76°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76°    West KY 74° to 76°     NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.  Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:39 AM
Moonset:  6:47 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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July 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  A chance of isolated thunderstorms developing.  Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 98°    SE MO 94° to 98°    South IL  94° to 98°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 94° to 96°    West KY 94° to 98°    NW TN 94° to 98°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Heat.  Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.  High heat index values.  Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.    Warm.  Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~  10%    TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78°     MO  74° to 78°     South IL  74° to 78°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78°    West KY 74° to 78°     NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most.  Perhaps an isolated wet roadway and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:31 AM
Moonset:  7:43 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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July 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Monday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  A chance of thunderstorms developing.  Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 98°    SE MO 94° to 98°    South IL  94° to 98°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 94° to 98°    West KY 94° to 98°    NW TN 94° to 98°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat.  Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.  High heat index values.  Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:50 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of thunderstorms.  Warm.  Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76°     MO  73° to 76°     South IL  73° to 76°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 74°    West KY 73° to 76°     NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 5:30 AM
Moonset:  8:35 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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July 21, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  A chance of thunderstorms developing.  Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96°    SE MO 93° to 96°    South IL  93° to 96°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 93° to 96°    West KY 93° to 96°    NW TN 93° to 96°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat.  Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.  High heat index values.  Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Sunset: 8:12 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of thunderstorms.  Warm.  Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76°     MO  73° to 76°     South IL  73° to 76°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 74°    West KY 73° to 76°     NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 6:37 AM
Moonset:  9:20 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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July 22, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  A chance of thunderstorms developing.  Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94°    SE MO 90° to 94°    South IL  90° to 94°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94°    West KY 90° to 94°    NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat.  Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.  High heat index values.  Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
Sunset: 8:11 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of thunderstorms.  Warm.  Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75°     MO  70° to 74°     South IL  70° to 74°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°    West KY 70° to 74°     NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 7:46 AM
Moonset:  10:00 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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July 23, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Low confidence
Thursday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  A chance of thunderstorms developing.  Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94°    SE MO 90° to 94°    South IL  90° to 94°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94°    West KY 90° to 94°    NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat.  Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Sunset: 8:10 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of thunderstorms.  Warm.  Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75°     MO  70° to 74°     South IL  70° to 74°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°    West KY 70° to 74°     NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning,  Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 8:56 AM
Moonset:  10:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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What is the UV index?

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  1.  Highs in the upper 80s to middle 90s this week.  Heat concerns.
  2.  Locally heavy rain will be the primary concern.

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Click to enlarge the graphics.

Remember, this is an average across our local area.  The county by county will vary.  See the detailed forecast above for each area.

Click graphics to enlarge them.

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Click graphics to enlarge them.

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These are dates that may have precipitation.  Monitor the trends in the forecast.

Anything past day seven is low confidence. 


Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Today through July 20th:  Today through Monday will deliver at least a daily chance of locally heavy thunderstorms.  Downburst wind will be the primary concern.

Downburst winds are not uncommon during July.

 

 

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

 

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The images below are from the WPC.  Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast.  I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated July 16,  2020

Thunderstorms will produce lightning over the coming days.  If you have outdoor plans then you will want to check the weather radars.

Heat index values will rise above 100 by Wednesday.  Muggy weather.  Use care when working outdoors, as always.

Don’t leave pets, children, or adults in hot cars.  Cars can rapidly heat to above 115 degrees in this kind of weather.  Use common sense, as always.

Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store.  Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

    1.   High heat index values.  Use care.
    2.   Muggy weather.
    3.   Daily chances of at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
    4.   Heat to continue into next week. Multiple days with 90 degrees and above.  Multiple days with heat index values of 100 and above.

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A hot and humid weekend ahead of us.

Yesterday wasn’t too bad across the northern half of the region.  The cold front slipped a bit further south than forecast.  Many of you remained in the 80s with decent dew points.  Not as humid.

All of that is about to change from today onward.  Now, clouds might help today with keeping temperatures a little bit lower.  We will have to monitor that.

Expect daily highs in the 90s into next week.  High dew points will make it feel uncomfortable, most of the time.  That includes at night.

You can expect heat index values of 98 to 108 degrees each day.

The only real relief will be clouds from time to time and summer-type thunderstorms.

A few of the thunderstorms later today could produce high wind and even hail.

The highest chance of thunderstorms will be today.  Chances will be lower Saturday into Monday.

Any thunderstorms that form in this soupy air mass will cause torrential rain.  That means one to two inches of rain in less than thirty minutes.  Same as recent weeks.  Gully washers is what I call them!

Thunderstorms will also produce strong and gusty wind.  Isolated damaging wind can’t be ruled out.  Not uncommon during the month of July.

Know the signs of heat illness.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at? 
You are looking at different models.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.  All models are wrong.  Some are more wrong than others.  Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation.  If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

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This animation is the Hrrr model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Models handle afternoo

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This animation is the SPC WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly.  Keep that in mind.

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This animation is the 3K American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly.  Keep that in mind.

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This next animation is the NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly.  Keep that in mind.

 

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly.  Keep that in mind.

 


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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers  July 17th through July 23rd

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers  July 24th through the 30th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.70″ to 2.20″

This outlook covers July 31st through August 13th

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Click to enlarge all of the images below

These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

Click the image below to enlarge it.

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Summer outlook

Click to enlarge it.  Then, you can read it better.

June through August

Temperature departures

 

Precipitation

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July temperature departures

Click on the images to enlarge them

July Precipitation

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August temperature departures

Click on the images to enlarge them

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Great news!  The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers.  Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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