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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We will have 10%-20% chances for isolated popup storms over the coming days. Otherwise, mostly dry for a change.
Friday – Mostly sunny and hot. More humid. A couple of pop up thunderstorms. Heat index values above 100 degrees.
Temperatures: Highs into the 90’s.
Winds: Becoming south and southwest at 5-10 mph perhaps a gust to 15 mph on lakes.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20% chance for a pop up storm.
What impact is expected? Outdoor heat index values will be above 100 degrees. Use care. If storms pop up then locally heavy rain and lightning. Gusty winds near a storm. Small chances, overall.
Friday night – A few patches of clouds, otherwise mostly clear. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% chance.
What impact is expected? None, unless an isolated storm forms. Then lightning and heavy rain.
Saturday – Mostly sunny to partly cloudy at times. Hot and muggy. Excessive heat index values. Small chance for a popup thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Highs well into the 90’s with heat index values above 100 degrees.
Winds: West and Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph on area lakes.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20% chance
What impact is expected? None, unless an isolated storm forms. Then lightning and heavy rain.
Saturday night – Mostly clear. Warm. Muggy.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None, unless an isolated storm forms. Then lightning and heavy rain.
Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. Excessive heat. Heat index values above 100 degrees.
Temperatures: Highs well into the middle and upper 90’s. Heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees
Winds: West and Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? None, unless an isolated storm forms. Then lightning and heavy rain.
Sunday night – Some increase in clouds. A 30% chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? If storms do form the brief heavy rain and lightning.
Monday – Partly cloudy with a chance for some thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to around 90 degrees.
Winds: West and Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected? Thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours.
Below normal temperatures are possible Monday into Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region. Then the heat may return.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. The heat is on!
2. Heat index values above 100 Friday through Sunday. Use care.
The good news is that the weekend will be 90% dry. Just a small chance for a few pop up thunderstorms in the region.
Also a cold front approaches around Sunday night or Monday. That will increase storm chances. But, I need to work out the timing of that system.
Unfortunately, I do not have good news for the weekend in the temperature department. It is going to be hot and it is going to be muggy. Heat index values will be well over 100 degrees. Can’t rule out some 105-110 heat index readings Friday into Sunday. This is a bit on the excessive side for outdoor events and some would even consider it dangerous. Use caution and care, as always. Don’t need to babysit you on the heat index subject! Use common sense. Especially children or elderly people.
Let’s look at the heat index maps from wright-weather.com
Friday heat index values above 100 are a good bet.
Saturday heat index values
Sunday heat index values
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Looking ahead to next week
2. Are we about to enter a long hot dry spell? Some data is showing that.
After a mostly dry weekend (outside of slight thunderstorm chances in the heat of the day) we will have a cold front reenter the picture on Sunday night – Tuesday.
Some question marks as to the speed of this front. Will it sag south of our region by Monday night or Tuesday? Or, will it perhaps become stationary for a day or two. Still some uncertainties on that subject. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Sensible weather consequences of the front will be scattered showers and thunderstorms. The air mass will be unstable. I can’t rule out some strong thunderstorms along the front, as well. Of course, with all of this moisture in the atmosphere, you can expect some locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms develop.
Let’s keep an eye on the front and I will update moving forward.
It appears the ridge of high pressure will build back in towards the middle/end of next week. If that happens then heat returns once again. Highs into the 90’s with heat index values about 100. The tug of war continues.
Friday through Sunday will bring above normal temperatures (this weekend)
Then perhaps normal to below normal again on Monday – Wednesday.
Then perhaps above normal temperatures again after that.
Let’s look at the ridge.
These are 500 mb maps from the GFS. The big H is he heat ridge. When it nudges into our region we heat up. When it is suppressed southward then we cool down a bit and become stormy.
This is for this weekend
HOT HOT HOT
Images are from weatherbell.com
This is for next Tuesday and Wednesday (below image). Notice how the ridge is further south? A cold front will be near our region. Thunderstorms typically move around the edge of the heat ridge.
Then next weekend. Hot again? Maybe. This image below shows the high building back in. The heat ridge.
Mixed signals on the models for the week after next. Whether another trough builds back into the Ohio Valley with northwest flow (cooler than normal and wetter than normal) or we end up stuck under the ridge. Questions, questions, questions. The ridge means heat. The trough means wet.
Stay tuned! 🙂
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
7 Day Rainfall Forecast
WPC map
Day 1-3 rainfall totals. This takes you through Sunday morning
Then we take a look at Sunday night into Tuesday
And finally, Tuesday afternoon into Thursday morning. So, as you can see we have at least some chances for measurable precipitation as we push into Sunday night, Monday, and Tuesday. Not sure about Wednesday. This will depend on the placement of the cold front.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorms threat level is ZERO to ONE for Friday. Perhaps a 10% chance for a storm. Otherwise, dry and pleasant weather.
Friday into Sunday: No severe weather anticipated. Small chances for thunderstorms.
Monday-Tuesday: Thunderstorms possible. Perhaps even as early as Sunday night.
The heat index is the main concern for Friday into Sunday. Heat index values of 100 to 105 (perhaps a bit hotter) will be common over the three day period.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
