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Tuesday: Locally heavy rain is a concern. Isolated tornado risk. Monitor updates.
Wednesday: Scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain and lightning.
Thursday: Heat index values above 100. Isolated storm chance. Lightning would be the concern.
Friday: Heat index values above 100. Isolated storm chance. Lightning would be the concern.
Saturday: Heat index values above 100. Isolated storm chance. Lightning would be the concern.
Sunday: Heat index values above 100. A few thunderstorms. Lightning would be the concern. Strong winds with storms.
Monday: Thunderstorms are possible. Lightning.
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- Locally heavy rain is likely on Tuesday into Wednesday. Greater coverage on Tuesday vs Wednesday.
- Hot and muggy weather develops Wednesday into the weekend. Highs in the 90s with heat index values above 100 degrees.
- River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.
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Monday through Wednesday
- Is lightning in the forecast? Scattered.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Possible. Thunderstorms or convective showers could produce isolated tornadoes on Monday and Tuesday. Tropical storm tornadoes typically are short-lived. They can last a few minutes. They can occur with little or no warning.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Heavy rain is likely to occur as the remnants of Barry push northward. Some areas will experience flash flooding. Avoid flooded roadways. There will be a wide range of rain totals. Not everyone is going to receive big amounts.
- Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Monitor. Perhaps on Wednesday if clouds clear. More likely Thursday onward.
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Wednesday through Saturday
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Isolated heat of the day PM storms could produce lightning.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? No. Occasionally, the heat of the day storms can produce isolated pockets of high winds.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
- Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index values may exceed 100 degrees each day.
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
County Maps: Click Here
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** If clouds break today then the risk of a few severe thunderstorms would increase **
July 16, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Breaks of sunshine. Showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds. There is an isolated tornado risk. Monitor the live blog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° SE MO 80° to 85° South IL 80° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° West KY 80° to 85° NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 70% IL 70% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70% Western KY 70% NW TN 70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Wet roadways. Locally heavy rain could cause some flash flooding. I will monitor the risk of short-lived tornadoes as Barry pushes through the region.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. There will be storms on radar. On and off.
UV Index: 7 to 9 High
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Scattered showers and some thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 8 to 16 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% Southeast MO 50% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways. Locally heavy rain could cause some flash flooding.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. There will be storms on the radar.
Sunset: 8:15 PM
Moonrise: 8:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Full
Moonset: 5:25 AM
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July 17, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Warmer. Muggy. A mix of sun and clouds. Scattered thunderstorms will still be possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 86° to 92° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92° West KY 86° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind 7 to 14 mph. Gusty winds are possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered lightning. Locally heavy rain. Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 very high
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms. Warm and muggy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° SE MO 74° to 76° South IL 74° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered. Ending.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some patchy fog could reduce visibility. Lightning. Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Sunset: 8:15 PM
Moonrise: 9:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 6:20 AM
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July 18, 2019.
Thursday’s Forecast: Heat alert. Mostly sunny. Summer heat and mugginess. High heat index values. Some cumulus clouds. Any thunderstorms would be isolated in nature. Most of the area will dry.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95° SE MO 92° to 95° South IL 92° to 95° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95° West KY 92° to 95° NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 104° to 108°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 10% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most of the region. An isolated thunderstorm would produce lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be uncomfortable outside with high heat index values.
UV Index: 10 to 11 very high
Sunrise: 5:48 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A slight chance of an evening isolated thunderstorm. Summer mugginess. Warm. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° SE MO 74° to 76° South IL 74° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 78°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some patchy fog could reduce visibility. A slight chance of isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:14 PM
Moonrise: 9:41 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:16 AM
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Friday: High. Heat alert. Mostly sunny. An isolated heat of the day thunderstorm. Most of the area will be dry. Heat index values above 105. High ranging from 92 to 96 degrees. Lows in the 72 to 76-degree range. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday: High confidence. Heat alert. Mostly sunny. An isolated heat of the day thunderstorm. Most of the area will be dry. Heat index values above 105. High ranging from 92 to 96 degrees. Lows in the 72 to 76-degree range. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday: Medium confidence. Mostly sunny. Widely scattered thunderstorms. Heat index values above 95. High ranging from 90 to 95 degrees. Lows in the 72 to 76-degree range. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday: Low confidence. Watching a cold front. Partly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms. High ranging from 88 to 94 degrees. Lows in the 70 to 74-degree range. Southwest wind 7 to 14 mph.
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Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
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Wind forecast
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Farmcast for those cutting hay and working in the fields.
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Graphic-cast
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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
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Missouri
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Illinois
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Kentucky
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Tennessee
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Tuesday through Sunday: The remnants of Barry will push through the region. These systems can produce short-lived tornadoes. They are difficult to warn on because they happen so fast. They quickly dissipate, as well.
I am monitoring Tuesday for short-lived tornadoes. A few storms could produce high winds.
Tuesday through Sunday will deliver a few lightning strikes. The best chance of storms will be on Wednesday. Isolated Thursday through Sunday. I am monitoring Sunday. A cold front may push towards the region. If that happens then the storm chances would increase.
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Value-added severe weather graphics.
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Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
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24-hour precipitation outlook.
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Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
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- Barry remnants remain the top weather story. Additional showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday.
- I am monitoring the risk of short-lived tornadoes. A few reports of damaging wind are possible Tuesday, as well.
- Heat and mugginess will develop Wednesday and especially Thursday into the weekend. The heat may last into next week.
- Heat index values Wednesday into Sunday will likely top 100 degrees.
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Current conditions.
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May temperature and precipitation outlook
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Precipitation
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September temperature and precipitation outlook
October temperature and precipitation outlook
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Weather
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Advice:
Avoid flooded roadways.
Monitor any flash flood warnings.
Monitor for the potential of short-lived tornadoes. These tornadoes are difficult to issue tornado warnings on. The reason is that they develop and dissipate so quickly.
Weather Forecast Analysis.
Today through Wednesday
We will have scattered showers and heavy thunderstorms on Tuesday, Tuesday night, and Wednesday.
The greatest coverage will be on Tuesday.
Coverage will begin to diminish west to east as we move through Tuesday night and Wednesday.
We did have one tornado-warned storm on Monday. We may have additional warnings on Tuesday.
Instability will be higher on Tuesday. That means that thunderstorms could be stronger.
I have the live blog up and running. Please view that for the most up to date information. Here is the link.
Make sure your apps are turned on. Turn your app on and make sure you have not signed out of it.
The greatest concern would be during the peak heating of the day. That would be between 12 pm and 6 pm.
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.Long Range
Hot weather will be with us Thursday through at least Sunday and perhaps beyond. Most of the guidance is showing highs in the 90s with heat index values of 98 to 110 degrees. Hot and muggy.
I am monitoring a cold front Sunday and Monday. That front could push the heat back just a bit. It would also mean scattered heavy thunderstorms. For now, I am monitoring the possibility. Confidence in the cold front drifting into our local area is low.
Overnight low will likely remain in the middle 70s. Muggy air. Not comfortable.
Don’t forget to check on the elderly.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
Timestamp upper left.
Click the animation to expand it.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models are rarely exactly right on their display of future-cast radars.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- During the summer months, models do not handle thunderstorms all that well. They tend to be chaotic.
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The NAM 3K model
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The NAM model.
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The GFS long-range model
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The WRF model
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Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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These are bonus videos.
I pay BAMwx to help with videos.
They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.
This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk
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The Ohio Valley video
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This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk
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This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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WeatherBrains Episode 702
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Mid-Atlantic ChaserCon 2019
- Dealing with forecasting random airmass summer thunderstorms
- Hurricane Barbara forms in Eastern Pacific
- James Spann officially releases his book
- Controversy concerning NASCAR weather delay in Chicago
- National Weather Round-Up
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
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