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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We will have 10% chances for isolated popup storms over the coming days. Otherwise, mostly dry for a change.
Wednesday night – Some evening clouds. Tiny chance for a storm over towards Poplar Bluff. More west of there stands a better chance.
Temperatures: Lows mostly in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Less than 10%
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Partly sunny sky conditions, not as humid as earlier in the week.
Temperatures: Highs mostly in the 80’s to lower 90’s
Winds: Light and variable winds at 5 mph. Winds may become south at 5-10 mph during the late morning and afternoon.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None, unless an isolated storm forms. Then lightning and heavy rain.
Thursday night – Mostly clear and a little warmer. Small chance for some thunderstorms developing overnight.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? If storms form then a few pockets of heavy rain and lightning.
Friday – Mostly sunny and hot. More humid. A couple of thunderstorms possible. Heat index values above 100 degrees.
Temperatures: Highs into the 90’s.
Winds: Becoming south and southwest at 5-10 mph perhaps a gust to 15 mph on lakes.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% chance for a pop up storm.
What impact is expected? Outdoor heat index values will be above 100 degrees. Use care.
Friday night – A few patches of clouds, otherwise mostly clear. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% chance.
What impact is expected? None, unless an isolated storm forms. Then lightning and heavy rain.
Saturday – Mostly sunny to partly cloudy at times. Hot and muggy. Excessive heat index values.
Temperatures: Highs well into the 90’s with heat index values above 100 degrees.
Winds: West and Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph on area lakes.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% chance
What impact is expected? None, unless an isolated storm forms. Then lightning and heavy rain.
Saturday night – Mostly clear. Warm. Muggy.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None, unless an isolated storm forms. Then lightning and heavy rain.
Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. Excessive heat. Heat index values above 100 degrees.
Temperatures: Highs well into the middle and upper 90’s. Heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees
Winds: West and Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None, unless an isolated storm forms. Then lightning and heavy rain.
Below normal temperatures are possible Monday into Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region. Then the heat may return.
I am starting to think the 2nd half of July will be dominated by heat and humidity. The first half, we had a great run of below normal temperatures (even though it was muggy). The rest of the month (bulk of the month) could end up under the heat ridge. This will need to be monitored.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Calm weather for Thursday
2. Heat problems for Friday into Sunday
Well, heat index values on Wednesday were not nearly as bad as recent days. And, Thursday will be decent, as well. It will be warm with temperatures mostly in the upper 80’s. A few spots will reach into the lower 90’s. But, humidity levels should be a little lower. Not the best, but it could be worse.
We have a lot of moisture in the ground. That isn’t helping our cause. It makes it feel muggier.
Unfortunately, I do not have good news for the weekend. At least temperature wise. It is going to be hot and it is going to be muggy. Heat index values will be well over 100 degrees. Can’t rule out some 105-110 heat index readings Friday into Sunday. This is a bit on the excessive side for outdoor events and some would even consider it dangerous. Use caution and care, as always. Don’t need to babysit you on the heat index subject! Use common sense. Especially children or elderly people.
Let’s look at the heat index maps from wright-weather.com
Friday heat index values above 100 are a good bet.
Saturday heat index values
Sunday heat index values
Precipitation this week…
At one point last week I thought this current week would bring more storms. Granted Monday and Tuesday were stormy for parts of the region. But, overall it has not been extreme (like what happened last week). This dry weather will continue Friday into at least Sunday.
Enjoy the dry spell.
Some people have asked me about the cooler than normal summer and wetter than normal summer, that I predicted. Of course, as a reminder, long range forecasting is a bit of a gamble. A bit of skill. A bit of luck. You look for patterns and then you make your forecast.
We may be about to enter a long dry and hot spell. I say MAYBE because the data is mixed. Not looking good though. If you don’t like hot and humid weather then you do not want the ridge of high pressure to win the tug of war battle.
Seems like we move from one extreme to the next.
Let’s look at the charts
Temperatures in July, thus far. I do realize we have had a lot of muggy days. But, that is because of all the moisture in the ground. But, temperatures have been below normal for 90% of the month. Of course, it goes without saying, July has been an extreme month for precipitation. Some places are 200%, 300%, and 400% above normal levels.
Here are the maps
This is the temperature anomaly map from weatherbell.com from July 1st through July 11th. It would be even more dramatic if it wasn’t for a bit warmer temperatures at night (because of all the moisture in the crowd)
The blue and green represents below to well below normal temperatures for the month, thus far.
Since June 1st (meteorological summer runs from June 1st through the end of August)
We are bordering below normal and above normal for the summer, thus far. Which, the forecast was for a bit of a battle between the heat ridge and troughs. Troughs bring the wet and cooler than normal weather.
Precipitation since June 29th. Just amazing totals. You aren’t going to experience something like this for a long time to come. Shouldn’t at least!
Percent of normal precipitation. This is the %
These are huge numbers when it comes to percents. Amazing.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Looking ahead to next week
2. Are we about to enter a long hot dry spell? Some data is showing that.
Next week is signalling a bit of a mix. We may see another cold front on Monday and Tuesday. That would, of course, mean more thunderstorms. This will need to be monitoring. Data is mixed on this subject. So, let’s keep an eye on it.
Below normal temperatures are likely Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week. Then the heat might return.
Wednesday into Friday of next week might end up dry. That is assuming we can get the front in and out of here. Difficult to do in July (remember last week when the front stalled out).
Not good news on the GFS next week for heat. The GFS is showing a big ridge building into our region. If so then the HEAT IS ON! We shall see. This is for next Wednesday into Friday
Let’s look at some more maps.
This is the 500 mb map for Friday, July 15th
The red arrows shows you where the storm track will be located. Well north of us. The big H represents the heat ridge. High pressure = heat in the summer (ridge from the south). Expect heat.
This is the map for next week. July 25th. The ridge remains. Uh oh. Not good news for those who do not like the heat.
Moving ahead the July 27th. The heat remains. We shall see if this happens. There are some other variables that could come into play. This would include Pacific typhoons. Whether the trough returns or not will be key to rainfall. I think the ridge may win for awhile. Starting to look that way.
A prolonged hot and dry spell would be the result.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
7 Day Rainfall Forecast
WPC map
Notice how the storm track has shifted to the north and east a bit?
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorms threat level is ZERO to ONE for Thursday. Perhaps a 10% chance for a storm. Otherwise, dry and pleasant weather.
Thursday into Sunday: No severe weather anticipated. Small chances for thunderstorms.
Rivers are high in many places.
No concerns for Thursday.
Concerns over heat for Friday into Sunday. Heat index values above 100 degrees. Use care outside.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
