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Monday: Locally heavy rain is a concern. A wide range of rain totals. Not everyone is going to see large amounts. Isolated tornado risk. Monitor updates.
Tuesday: Locally heavy rain is a concern. Isolated tornado risk. Monitor updates.
Wednesday: Scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain and lightning.
Thursday: Heat index values above 100. Isolated storm chance. Lightning would be the concern.
Friday: Heat index values above 100. Isolated storm chance. Lightning would be the concern.
Saturday: Heat index values above 100. Isolated storm chance. Lightning would be the concern.
Sunday: Heat index values above 100. Isolated storm chance. Lightning would be the concern.
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- Heavy rain is increasingly likely Monday and Tuesday. Rainfall totals of one to two inches are likely. There will be bands of higher totals, of course. Any areas that receive training thunderstorms can pick up excessive rain totals.
- Hot and muggy weather develops Wednesday into the weekend. Highs in the 90s with heat index values above 100 degrees.
- River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.
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Monday through Wednesday
- Is lightning in the forecast? Scattered.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Possible. Thunderstorms or convective showers could produce isolated tornadoes on Monday and Tuesday. Tropical storm tornadoes typically are short-lived. They can last a few minutes. They can occur with little or no warning.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Heavy rain is likely to occur as the remnants of Barry push northward. Some areas will experience flash flooding. Avoid flooded roadways. There will be a wide range of rain totals. Not everyone is going to receive big amounts.
- Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Monitor. Perhaps on Wednesday if clouds clear. More likely Thursday onward.
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Wednesday through Saturday
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Isolated heat of the day PM storms could produce lightning.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? No. Occasionally, the heat of the day storms can produce isolated pockets of high winds.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
- Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index values may exceed 100 degrees each day.
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
County Maps: Click Here
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** If clouds break today then the risk of a few severe thunderstorms would increase **
July 15, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: A wide range of rain totals over the next 48 hours. Not everyone is going to receive big totals. Keep that in mind. Intervals of clouds. There could be some breaks in the clouds by late morning or afternoon. Intervals of showers and some thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain is possible. I will monitor the risk of a few short-lived tornadoes.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 15 to 30 mph. Gusty winds.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 84°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 70% IL 70% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70% Western KY 70% NW TN 70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Wet roadways. Locally heavy rain could cause some flash flooding. I will monitor the risk of short-lived tornadoes as Barry pushes through the region.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2 to 4 (clouds) Medium
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
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Monday night Forecast: Cloudy. Intervals of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Wet roadways. Locally heavy rain could cause some flash flooding. I will monitor the risk of short-lived tornadoes as Barry pushes through the region.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunset: 8:16 PM
Moonrise: 7:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:34 AM
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July 16, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Cloudy. Humid. Showers and some thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain is possible. I will monitor the risk of isolated short-lived tornadoes.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° SE MO 80° to 85° South IL 80° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° West KY 80° to 85° NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Wet roadways. Locally heavy rain could cause some flash flooding. I will monitor the risk of short-lived tornadoes as Barry pushes through the region.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 7 to 9 High
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and some thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast wind 8 to 16 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% Southeast MO 50% IL 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50% Western KY 50% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways. Locally heavy rain could cause some flash flooding.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunset: 8:15 PM
Moonrise: 8:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Full
Moonset: 5:25 AM
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July 17, 2019.
Wednesday’s Forecast: A few remaining clouds from Barry. Scattered thunderstorms will still be possible. There is some question as to how fast Barry exits our region. I will monitor trends and adjust the forecast accordingly.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 86° to 92° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92° West KY 86° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind 7 to 14 mph. Gusty winds are possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered lightning. Locally heavy rain. Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 very high
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered thunderstorms as the moisture from Barry pushes further north. Increasingly muggy. Warm.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 73° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° West KY 73° to 76° NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered. Ending.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some patchy fog could reduce visibility. Lightning. Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Sunset: 8:15 PM
Moonrise: 9:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 6:20 AM
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Thursday: High. Mostly sunny. An isolated heat of the day thunderstorm. Most of the area will be dry. Heat index values above 100. High ranging from 90 to 95 degrees. Lows in the 70 to 75-degree range. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday: High confidence. Mostly sunny. An isolated heat of the day thunderstorm. Most of the area will be dry. Heat index values above 100. High ranging from 90 to 95 degrees. Lows in the 70 to 75-degree range. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday: High confidence. Mostly sunny. An isolated heat of the day thunderstorm. Most of the area will be dry. Heat index values above 100. High ranging from 90 to 95 degrees. Lows in the 70 to 75-degree range. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
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Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Click to enlarge
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Wind forecast
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Farmcast for those cutting hay and working in the fields.
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Graphic-cast
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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
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Missouri
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Illinois
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Kentucky
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Tennessee
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Monday through Sunday: The remnants of Barry will push through the region. These systems can produce short-lived tornadoes. They are difficult to warn on because they happen so fast. They quickly dissipate, as well.
I am monitoring Monday and Tuesday for short-lived tornadoes.
If the sun comes out then the atmosphere will become more unstable. If the clouds remain thick then the severe risk is lower.
Wednesday through Sunday will deliver a few lightning strikes. The best chance of storms will be on Wednesday. Isolated Thursday through Sunday.
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Value-added severe weather graphics.
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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.
Log into your www.weathertalk.com
Click the personal notification settings tab.
Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
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24-hour precipitation outlook.
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Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
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- The remnants of Tropical Storm Barry will push into our region Monday and Tuesday. Locally heavy rain is likely. Not everyone will receive big rain totals. The totals will vary.
- I am monitoring the risk of short-lived tornadoes, as well.
- Heat and mugginess will develop Wednesday and especially Thursday into the weekend. The heat may last into next week.
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Click image to enlarge it.
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Current conditions.
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May temperature and precipitation outlook
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Precipitation
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September temperature and precipitation outlook
October temperature and precipitation outlook
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Weather
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Advice:
Avoid flooded roadways.
Monitor any flash flood warnings.
Monitor for the potential of short-lived tornadoes. These tornadoes are difficult to issue tornado warnings on. The reason is that they develop and dissipate so quickly.
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Weather Forecast Analysis.
Today through Wednesday
The main weather story is obviously the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry.
Barry moved into Louisiana over the weekend and has slowly pushed northward. Its movement has been less than 10 mph.
You can see how large the cloud mass is on this visible satellite image.
Here is what Barry looked like this morning (Monday)
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The slow-moving system will pick up some speed as it moves through Arkansas and eventually Missouri.
The western track of the system places our region in the eastern quadrant. That is where the heaviest rain typically falls. That is also where short-lived tornadoes can develop.
I have the live blog up and running. Please view that for the most up to date information. Here is the link.
Make sure your apps are turned on. Turn your app on and make sure you have not signed out of it.
Rainfall totals will vary. A large variation. I have been forecasting a general one to two inches across most of the area. That forecast holds. I know that is lower than many other forecasts.
There will certainly be bands of much higher totals. Where thunderstorms repeatedly train over the same areas you can quickly pick up one to two inches of rain in less than an hour. There will be bands of much higher totals within this rain event.
The greatest rain totals on Monday and Tuesday will likely be across southeast Missouri, far western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
Southern Illinois may also have heavy rain. Again, if showers and tropical convection train over the same area then heavy rain will occur.
Tropical convection does not always produce lightning. Keep that in mind. You may not hear thunder with some of this heavy rain and even where short-lived tornadoes develop.
PWAT values will be quite high over the coming days. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmospheric column.
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Here is the PWAT animation.
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A few showers and thunderstorms will likely continue into Wednesday before tapering off west to east.
Temperatures will be muted because of the thick cloud cover Monday and Tuesday.
As a matter of fact, many areas may remain in the 70s on Monday. This could break some record cool high temperatures.
Let me show you a few maps.
These are model rainfall totals. They vary.
Take the general idea from these and not specifics. Notice how most of them show the same area for the heaviest rain totals.
Models don’t handle precipitation all that well. Precipitation totals, I should say. This is especially true when it comes to a tropical system.
Bands of heavy rain will be sprinkled throughout the rain shield.
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Here are the WPC/NOAA forecast rainfall totals.
Keep in mind, some the rain has already fallen. So, the map today is lower because of SAT and SUN’s rain.
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.Long Range
Hot weather will be with us Thursday through at least Sunday and perhaps beyond. Most of the guidance is showing highs in the 90s with heat index values of 98 to 110 degrees. Hot and muggy.
Overnight low will likely remain in the 70s. Muggy air. Not comfortable.
Don’t forget to check on the elderly.
Summer heat dome later this week into the weekend.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
Timestamp upper left.
Click the animation to expand it.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models are rarely exactly right on their display of future-cast radars.
- The timestamp is located in the upper left corner.
- During the summer months, models do not handle thunderstorms all that well. They tend to be chaotic.
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The NAM 3K model
Click animations to enlarge them.
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The NAM model.
Click to enlarge.
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The GFS long-range model
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The WRF model
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Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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These are bonus videos.
I pay BAMwx to help with videos.
They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.
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The Ohio Valley video
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This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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WeatherBrains Episode 702
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Mid-Atlantic ChaserCon 2019
- Dealing with forecasting random airmass summer thunderstorms
- Hurricane Barbara forms in Eastern Pacific
- James Spann officially releases his book
- Controversy concerning NASCAR weather delay in Chicago
- National Weather Round-Up
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
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