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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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July 14, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Scattered locally heavy thunderstorms possible, especially early. Rain should taper north to south overnight as a cold front moves through the region. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: Variable winds at 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 12 mph. Winds becoming northwest and north.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours possible. Some storms could produce strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? Evening storms could be intense with strong winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Evening plans could be interrupted by storms. Monitor radars and updates.
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July 15, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some clouds may remain over our southern counties (Bootheel/KY TN border). Warm, a bit less humid. Perhaps a few remaining morning showers and thunderstorms. The best chance would be over the Missouri Bootheel and along the KY/TN border. Smaller chances north of there. A slight chance for storms over the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee after 10 am.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Southern counties might have to deal with some morning storms with lightning and downpours. Low confidence on that part of the forecast.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Most of the region will be dry. Scattered storms may remain near the Bootheel into the Kentucky/Tennessee border area.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and mild. Not quite as muggy. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: North winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 16, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. A small chance for an afternoon thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Small chance for lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Warm. Isolated thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: North winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 17, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny and warm. A bit more humid. Isolated thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 84 to 90 KY ~ 84 to 90 TN ~ 84 to 90
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph. Winds becoming southerly.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? If a thunderstorm develops then wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Isolated evening thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? If a thunderstorm develops then wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 18, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92 IL ~ 88 to 92 KY ~ 88 to 92 TN ~ 88 to 92
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: Variable winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 19, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 95 IL ~ 90 to 95 KY ~ 90 to 95 TN ~ 90 to 95
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 20, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 95 IL ~ 90 to 95 KY ~ 90 to 95 TN ~ 90 to 95
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 21, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 95 IL ~ 90 to 95 KY ~ 90 to 95 TN ~ 90 to 95
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Friday night: Some thunderstorms could be intense with strong winds, heavy rain, small hail, and frequent lightning. Isolated severe weather risk.
Saturday through Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Small chance for thunderstorms on Sunday and Sunday night along a weak cold front.
A cold front will nudge its way southward tonight and on Saturday morning. Heavy thunderstorms will be found along and ahead of the front. Storms could produce pockets of high winds, frequent lightning, and even flash flooding.
Some areas will pick up two or more inches of rain. Others will remain dry. Same as recent days.
Showers and heavy thunderstorms will come to an end as the front shifts southward late tonight and on Saturday morning.
Saturday morning might deliver a few remaining showers and storms near the Missouri and Arkansas state line and near the Kentucky and Tennessee state line. I am hoping the front will push far enough south that we bring an end to rain chances in our local area.
It will be warm on Saturday and Sunday, but perhaps not quite as muggy. It will still feel like summer. Hard to escape that in July.
A weak cold front will push through the region on Sunday and Sunday night. A few storms could fire along the front. There is not a lot of moisture for the front to work with. In this forecast package I did include 20% thunderstorm chances.
Monday into the end of next week will be warm to hot. Highs mostly in the upper 80’s to middle 90’s. Dew points will be on the rise again. That means heat index values above 100 degrees. We will need to monitor the position of the ridge of high pressure. Its position will determine just how hot it will be. Monitor updates.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
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If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
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WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
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