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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Friday to Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible through Saturday. Another chance Monday night into Tuesday night. I will monitor the other days.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. Thunderstorms are possible. Some could be severe. Monitor updates.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Slow moving or training thunderstorms could cause flash flooding.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Yes. Today, Wednesday, and Thursday.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Friday, July 14, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms. Locally heavy rain. Some storms could be severe. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars and app
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Locally heavy rain. Some storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars and app
Moonrise: 2:46 AM
Moonset: 6:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Saturday, July 15, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and precipitation.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms. Locally heavy rain. Some storms could be severe. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars and app
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of mainly evening showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars and app
Moonrise: 3:31 AM
Moonset: 7:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Sunday, July 16, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 pm
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:23 AM
Moonset: 8:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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- Hot and muggy today, again.
- Increasing rain chances into tomorrow.
- Some storms could be locally intense/heavy.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Don’t forget the sunscreen on this summer warm days! Review summer heat safety rules.
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Forecast Discussion
Today’s Average Regional Forecast Numbers
Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and precipitation. Keep that in mind.
Monitoring the risk of thunderstorms.
Good morning!
It feels like Groundhog Day, the movie!
We have another hot and muggy day ahead of us. The atmosphere will be moderately unstable.
This morning’s MCS has been tracking through Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas. A tad too far south for most of my forecast area. Portions of southern Missouri have received much needed rain.
Here is this morning’s infrared Satellite vide of the MCS/thunderstorm complex.
That system will continue to push south southeast through the morning hours.
Outflow boundaries will push into our region through the morning and afternoon. Those boundaries will likely be areas where new thunderstorms may form.
Some of those storms could produce high wind gusts, small hail, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.
I can’t rule out a severe thunderstorm warning or two today into tomorrow.
Tonight, another MCS is forecast to form over western Missouri and track east southeast. How far southeast will be key to our rain chances. We will need to monitor it.
A cold front will enter the region tomorrow. This front will provide additional chances of showers and thunderstorms. Again, some could be locally heavy.
Today’s excessive rainfall outlook shows our region in a level one risk of flash flooding. The lowest level. Any issues would be isolated.
Saturday, we are in a level one and two risk of flash flooding.
You can see how the level two risk, in yellow, curves to the southeast. That is where the MCS/thunderstorm complex may track. Thus, the level two risk.
As has been the case, over the past six weeks, rainfall totals will vary greatly. From none in some areas to over two inches in other locations. It is luck of the draw for your location. It just depends on where the thunderstorms form in this soupy air-mass.
Sunday and Monday will deliver mostly sunny sky conditions. Just a small 10% to 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. It should be dry over most of the region.
I am watching Tuesday/Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as a warm front moves across our region. This will be the focus for showers and heavy thunderstorms. Models are not currently in agreement as to where this will occur. The odds have been favoring southeast Illinois into Kentucky. It is possible this occurs outside my forecast area. For now, I continue to monitor trends in the model guidance. I will know more over the coming days.
The heat ridge, in the southwest United States that has been making headlines, will push into our region briefly Wednesday and Thursday.
That will replace our northwest jet stream flow.
You can see today’s map shows northwest flow over our region today and tomorrow. See how the black lines curve southeastward?
Northwest flow brings us thunderstorm chances. The heat ridge does not.
Then, next Wednesday night and Thursday, notice how the red colors move back into our region. That is the heat ridge.
That only lasts a couple of days.
Notice what happens by late next week. The northwest flow returns with more thunderstorm chances.
That is good news for those needing rain. Which is most of us.
The new drought monitor maps have been posted.
Portions of our region are now in a level two drought. That is considered severe drought.
Portions of central Missouri are in exceptional (level four) drought.
Last week’s drought monitor compared to this weeks.
Some areas have worsened.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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