Videos can be viewed at this link. Long Range Video Update
If you believe you missed a video then you can also click the LIVE FEED link on the Weather Talk website. That page holds links for several days.
I can text you the videos, as well. Make sure you have text option FOUR turned on. That would be the Weather Extra text option. Sign up for the text messages at www.beaudodsonweather.com
.
..
This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
.
The following link is for Weather Text subscribers. This is the page where short and long range video outlooks have been posted. The videos are being produced by a team of meteorologists. Some of the best in the region.
https://weathertalk.com/app/beaucast
.
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. An isolated evening thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
July 13, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Hot and muggy. Scattered thunderstorms possible, especially during the afternoon hours. Heat index values of 95 to 102 degrees.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94 IL ~ 88 to 94 KY ~ 88 to 94 TN ~ 88 to 94
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways. Heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Low-end severe weather risk
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% to 40% TN ~ 30% to 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest winds at 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Low-end severe weather risk.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
.
July 14, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms possible. Warm. Rain chances shifting southward with time. Rain chances ending near Mt Vernon, first and then southward from there.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
Winds: South winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph. Winds behind the front will become west and northwest.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways. Heavy downpours. Some storms could produce high winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Low-end severe weather risk.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% to 50% TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have alternative plans in case storms move into the area.
.
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Scattered thunderstorms possible, especially early. Rain chances shifting southward with time. Rain chances ending near Mt Vernon, first and then southward from there.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: Variable winds at 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 12 mph. Winds becoming northwest and north.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Evening storms could be intense with strong winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, but perhaps ending from north to south.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Evening plans could be interrupted by scattered storms. Monitor radars and updates.
.
There remain some questions about thunderstorm activity lingering into Saturday morning across the Missouri Bootheel and then along the KY/TN border. Lower than normal confidence on the Saturday morning forecast.
.
July 15, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Warm. Perhaps less muggy. Small chance for a storm near the KY/TN border and then southward from there.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: North winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
July 16, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: North winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
July 17, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
July 18, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
.
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Wednesday night: Isolated evening storms are possible. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and cloud to ground lightning would be the concern.
Thursday into Friday night: Scattered thunderstorms are likely to occur along and ahead of an in-coming cold front. Storms that do form could be intense. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and small hail will be possible. I can’t rule out a few severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary concern.
Saturday through Monday: A small risk for thunderstorms on Saturday morning for the Missouri Bootheel into northwest Tennessee and perhaps near the Kentucky and Tennessee border. Most of the region should remain dry.
A weak cold front will approach on Sunday/Sunday night. I can’t rule out a few storms along the front, although it appears moisture will be somewhat limited.
How are you enjoying our summer weather? It certainly does fell like summer outside. Hot and muggy conditions will continue into Thursday.
The good news is that a cold front will enter our region on Thursday and Friday. A second cold front is anticipated for Sunday and Sunday night. Both of these fronts will provide some lift in the atmosphere. They will also help shave a few degrees off the backyard thermometer.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the Thursday/Friday cold front. There will be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere for locally heavy rain. Some areas may remain dry, while others pick up one to two inches of rain. Slow moving storms can always produce higher amounts. Keep that in mind.
Dew points will remain in the upper 60’s to middle 70’s ahead of the front. PWAT values, a measure of moisture in the entire atmospheric column, will range from 1.7 to 2.2 inches. High. Again, plenty of moisture for storms to tap into.
Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will remain hot. Highs will push into the upper 80’s to lower 90’s. Clouds may knock a few degrees off the thermometer, but overall, it will be hot and muggy.
The front will sag into our northern counties on Thursday. The best chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely remain over the northern half of the region on Thursday and then slide southward with time.
Peak thunderstorm chances for southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee may hold off until Friday. That is not to say it won’t storm before then.
Thunderstorms that do form could produce gusty winds. CAPE values of 1000 to 3000 are anticipated on Thursday and Friday. That is quite a bit of energy. Wind fields, however, are weak. Stronger wind fields would increase the threat for severe thunderstorms. As it stands, we will have a low-end risk for severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds being the main concern.
Let me show you the 3K NAM model guidance. These are future-cast radar images. Models don’t handle this type of set-up all that great. Take the general idea from these graphics and not specifics.
4 PM Thursday
7 PM Thursday
10 pm Thursday
Weekend Outlook
The front should sag to our south by Saturday. That will cut off rain chances. I will be monitoring how far south the front moves on Friday night. If the front stalls, for a few hours, then thunderstorm chances may continue along the Kentucky and Tennessee border into Saturday morning. Low confidence of that happening, but I am monitoring trends.
A second cold front arrives on Sunday/Sunday night. Moisture, ahead of this front, will be limited. I did include a slight chance for storms on Sunday and Sunday night.
Dew points, a measure of moisture in the lower atmosphere, will decrease on Saturday and Sunday. This should help it feel a bit less humid outside. It will remain warm over the weekend with highs in the middle to upper 80’s. The lower dew points should help our cause, if only a bit.
Saturday high temperatures
Sunday high temperatures
Are you subscribing to the Weather Talk texts and videos?
We now have premiere videos for the short and long range forecasts!
Sign up at www.beaudodsonweather.com
We also have an Apple and Android app (scroll down to bottom of the page for more information)
Were you aware that I have hired some help for long range videos? Short range videos, as well. An amazing team of meteorologists.
Click the link below to read more
http://cms.weathertalk.com/meet-the-team/
Weather Talk subscribers now have some of the best short and long range weather videos produced across the eastern United States.
.
Find me on Twitter
.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
.
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
.
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
.
.
.
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
.
.
The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users. The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The app allows instant delivery.
Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The app is for text subscribers.
The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514
If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com
The Android app is also ready.
Remember, the app’s are for www.weathertalk.com subscribers. The app allows your to receive the text messages faster than ATT and Verizon.
Here is the download link for the Android version Click Here
——————————————————–
If you have not signed up for the texts messages, then please do. Link www.beaudodsonweather.com
Your support helps with the following:
and
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
