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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.
48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible late this afternoon/tonight into Saturday. I will have to monitor beyond Saturday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. Thunderstorms are possible this week. Some could be severe. Monitor updates.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Slow moving or training thunderstorms could cause flash flooding.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index may approach or exceed 100 degrees Wednesday into Saturday. This will be dependent on cloud cover and any thunderstorm complexes. That would mean lower temperatures.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Wednesday, July 12, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Low to medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of late afternoon thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after 4 PM. Lower chances, for now, during the morning hours.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 96° to 102°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning. Most of the region will remain dry.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Muggy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Locally heavy rain. Some storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars and app for severe weather updates.
Moonrise: 1:34 AM
Moonset: 4:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Thursday, July 13, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and thunderstorms. Muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms. Locally heavy rain. Some storms could be severe. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars and app
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Locally heavy rain. Some storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars and app
Moonrise: 2:07 AM
Moonset: 5:12 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Friday, July 14, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms. Locally heavy rain. Some storms could be severe. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars and app
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Locally heavy rain. Some storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars and app
Moonrise: 2:46 AM
Moonset: 6:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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- Warm. Increasingly muggy today and tonight.
- MCS’s are in the forecast. Some could bring heavy rain and severe weather. MCS’s are summer thunderstorm complexes.
- Severe weather and flash flooding.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Don’t forget the sunscreen on this summer warm days! Review summer heat safety rules.
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Forecast Discussion
Today’s Average Regional Forecast Numbers
Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and precipitation. Keep that in mind.
Monitoring the risk of thunderstorms.
Right off the bat, let me say that once again some of you will be disappointed with your rain totals over the coming days. Others will be ecstatic. I call these feast or famine rains. Too much. Too little. Location location location. Even within one county, you can have a three inch+ difference in rain totals. It comes down to luck of the draw as to where these storm complexes move.
As mentioned yesterday, a complicated forecast is unfolding for the area.
Today will likely end up dry. There is a small chance of a thunderstorm late this afternoon over portions of northern Missouri and northern southern Illinois.
Otherwise, hot and dry. Somewhat muggy (esp over our southern counties). Highs will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat index values will range from the middle 90s to near 100 degrees.
An MCS will move out of Nebraska and Iowa this morning. It will move east southeast into Kansas and Missouri. It will extend into Iowa, as well.
You can see that MCS on the morning satellite imagery. Remember, an MCS is a large complex of thunderstorms. Occasionally, these can produce severe weather. This one has been producing 70 mph wind gusts.
You are looking at cold cloud tops in the red colors. There is also a complex of storms in southern Arkansas. That is important.
The thunderstorm complex over southern Arkansas may help block some higher dew points from moving northward today. At least it may offset it a little.
That is important because higher dew points equal an increasingly unstable atmosphere. If you shunt dew points, then the atmosphere is not as unstable.
This is what I am forecasting to happen. Keep in mind, as I have mentioned numerous times, forecasting these thunderstorm complexes can be very difficult.
The storms over Nebraska and Iowa will continue to move east and south. With time, they will weaken. This will leave some outflow boundaries across Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.
A new complex of storms will form in eastern Kansas and western Missouri later this afternoon into tonight. That complex of storms will move east southeast into southwest and southern Missouri. Perhaps clipping southeast Missouri.
In addition to that, some scattered storms will form tonight from St Louis into Indiana. Those storms will move south southeast, as well.
I can’t rule out some damaging wind gusts with the most intense storms. The highest risk of that will be over southeast Missouri. A lower risk will exist everywhere else.
We may be dealing with some thunderstorms tomorrow morning. With time, those will shift southward and weaken.
That will leave us with a hot and muggy Thursday.
Some scattered storms may form Thursday afternoon and night in the region.
A stronger impulse will arrive Friday and Friday night. That may bring an increase in thunderstorm coverage. It will be hot and muggy Friday.
Scattered storms will be possible Saturday and Saturday night.
I will need to monitor Sunday into much of next week for additional storm chances. Some could be heavy, at times.
Thunderstorms will have no shortage of deep moisture to tap into over the coming days.
Thunderstorms could produce one to two inches of rain per hour. If storms train over the same area then flash flooding would occur.
There are some signals for a heavy rain event next week in our region. For now, the guidance is centered on southeast Illinois into northwest Kentucky.
You can see that on the GFS Model. This would mean some locations would have received between 12 and 15 inches of rain over the past few weeks in NW KY. Some areas have already exceeded ten inches.
We have plenty of time to monitor the Tuesday into Wednesday of next week portion of the forecast. Just showing you what some of the data is suggesting. Long way off.
Overall, confidence in the forecast is medium. There may need to be 12 hour adjustments made to the % numbers when it comes to rain chances.
Monitor updates and your Beau Dodson Weather app over the coming days. Some severe weather will be possible.
Guidance indicates a heat wave is likely towards the end of July. If the heat ridge pushes into our region, from the southwest USA, then we could reach 100 degrees. I will monitor the heat potential moving forward.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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