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Friday: No concerns for most of the region.
Saturday: A few thunderstorms are possible. The greatest chance will be over the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. Heat index values may approach 100.
Sunday: Scattered thunderstorms should form as Barry begins to push moisture northward. Lightning would be the concern. Heat index values near 100 degrees.
Monday: The remnants of Barry will push northward. Locally heavy rain is a concern. Isolated tornado risk. Monitor updates.
Tuesday: The remnants of Barry will push northward. Locally heavy rain is a concern. Isolated tornado risk. Monitor updates.
Wednesday: Lightning is possible. I will monitor the potential of heavy rain in case the tropical system does move into our region and stalls.
Thursday: Lightning is possible. Locally heavy rain from storms that form. Typical summer weather.
Friday: Lightning is possible. Locally heavy rain from storms that form. Typical summer weather.
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- A few storms are possible over the weekend. Quite warm.
- Heavy rain is increasingly likely Monday and Tuesday. The exact track of Barry is key to rain totals.
- River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.
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Friday through Sunday
- Is lightning in the forecast? Scattered. Scattered lightning is possible Saturday onward. I did have to add a few storms to the Saturday forecast (mainly the Bootheel into west Kentucky/Tennessee)
- Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. I will keep an eye on Sunday night. This is dependent on the track of Barry. Most of Barry’s rain should hold off until Monday and Tuesday.
- Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Monitor. Heat index values may exceed 100 degrees on Saturday and Sunday afternoon.
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Monday through Thursday
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible. Lightning is more likely Wednesday and Thursday vs Monday and Tuesday. Often times, tropical systems do not produce a lot of lightning. Isolated.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. A tropical system may push into the region early next week. Occasionally, these systems can produce short-lived tornadoes. The main concern will be on Monday and Tuesday.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Flash flooding will occur with the remnants of Barry. Rain totals of two to four inches are possible. Higher totals are likely.
- Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Possible. Heat index values may exceed 100 degrees on Thursday. This will depend on cloud cover.
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
County Maps: Click Here
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July 12, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some afternoon cumulus clouds. Warm but not as muggy as recent days. Some patchy morning fog is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 86° to 92° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92° West KY 86° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? There could be some morning fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10 to 11 very high
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some patchy fog could reduce visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:17 PM
Moonrise: 4:38 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:25 AM
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July 13, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some afternoon cumulus clouds. A couple of storms will be possible over the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. Summer warmth. Becoming muggier.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 86° to 92° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92° West KY 86° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: East wind at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 96° to 100°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 20% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? There could be some morning fog. Otherwise, a couple of storms will be possible. Lightning will be the concern. Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10 to 11 very high
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Isolated evening storms. Warm. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° SE MO 70° to 72° South IL 70° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72° West KY 70° to 72° NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast wind at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 20% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated during the evening.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some patchy fog could reduce visibility. Evening lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:17 PM
Moonrise: 5:45 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:03 AM
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July 14, 2019.
Sunday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Increasing clouds during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may form in the heat of the day. Summer warmth and mugginess. Dew points will be on the rise ahead of Barry.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 86° to 92° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92° West KY 86° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 94°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? There could be some morning fog. Otherwise, scattered lightning and wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars during the afternoon
UV Index: 9 to 10 very high
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered thunderstorms as the moisture from Barry pushes further north. Increasingly muggy. Warm.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 40% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some patchy fog could reduce visibility. Lightning. Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Sunset: 8:16 PM
Moonrise: 6:39 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:46 AM
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Monday: Medium. Increasing clouds. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain. This is highly dependent on the developing tropical system. High ranging from 84 to 88 degrees. Lows in the 70 to 75-degree range. East and southeast wind 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 25 mph.
Tuesday: Medium confidence. Quite a few clouds. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain is possible. This is highly dependent on the developing tropical system. High ranging from 83 to 86 degrees. Lows in the 68 to 72-degree range. South wind at 7 to 14 mph with gusts above 30 mph.
Wednesday: Medium confidence. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High ranging from 85 to 90 degrees. Lows in the 70 to 75-degree range. Winds gusting above 15 mph.
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Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Click to enlarge
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Wind forecast
Click to enlarge
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Farmcast for those cutting hay and working in the fields.
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Graphic-cast
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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
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Missouri
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Illinois
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Kentucky
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Tennessee
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Friday through Friday: Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated on Friday, Saturday, or Sunday.
Tropical thunderstorms and showers may produce isolated tornadoes on Monday and Tuesday.
Strong thunderstorms are possible Wednesday through Friday.
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Value-added severe weather graphics.
Click to enlarge
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Log into your www.weathertalk.com
Click the personal notification settings tab.
Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
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24-hour precipitation outlook.
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Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
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- Warm weather this weekend. Dry today. Isolated storms possible Saturday (southern counties).
- Scattered storms possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as Barry moves northward.
- Barry will push into the Tennessee Valley by Monday and Tuesday. We may experience heavy rain in our region. The exact track is key to how much rainfall occurs in our local area.
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Click image to enlarge it.
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Current conditions.
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May temperature and precipitation outlook
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Precipitation
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September temperature and precipitation outlook
October temperature and precipitation outlook
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Weather
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Advice:
Barry will push northward over the coming days.
Rain could be heavy in our region by Monday and Tuesday. Flash flooding is possible.
Isolated tornadoes are possible. The track of the system is key to where the heavy rain will fall and where the threat of severe weather will occur.
Monitor updates moving forward. There remain questions about the exact track of the system.
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Beau’s Tropical Update
Beau’s message
The heaviest rain will fall near the center and east of the center of Barry. The track is key to how much rain we receive.
Isolated tornadoes are possible to the east of the center, as well.
It appears this system may bring heavy rain into portions of our region.
Rain totals could exceed three inches across portions of our region. The heaviest rain will arrive on Monday and Tuesday.
Monitor updates moving forward.
Click to enlarge graphics
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Remember, the cone is where the center could move.
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Here is the EC model spaghetti plot.
What is a spaghetti plot? It is the same model ran over and over again with different beginning numbers.
In theory, the chance of the track verifying increases as the lines cluster closer together.
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The Nati9onal Hurricane Center is forecasting these rain totals.
Keep in mind, this would verify if the center actually tracks into our region.
There remain questions about the eventual track
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.The WPC brings heavy rain into portions of Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. For now, that seems a good bet.
Where it goes from there will be key to our region’s weather. Monitor updates.
This is the seven-day rainfall forecast from the WPC/NOAA. Extremely heavy rain in Louisiana. More than a foot of rain.
You can see how they pull the system into Missouri. Again, confidence is low. Monitor updates.
Click to enlarge the image.
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Weather Forecast Analysis.
Friday and Saturday
Today will be warm. Mostly sunny. Just some fair-weather clouds.
A couple of storms may form Saturday afternoon over the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee. This will be in response to Barry pushing moisture northward.
Most of the area should be dry on Saturday. Check radars during the afternoon. Lightning will be the concern.
Check out July’s temperature departures, thus far. Also, notice how many days we have recorded rain!
Temperatures have been above normal since July 1st.
Click image to enlarge it.
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Sunday
Sunday will deliver a few more clouds as Barry pushes northward. A few thunderstorms will form during the afternoon and evening hours. Where thunderstorms form there will be lightning and heavy downpours. I would not cancel any plans. I would check radars.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Heat index values will be well into the 90s. Dew points will be on the rise. That means muggier air.
Dew point controls how muggy the air feels.
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Monday through Friday
Well, of course, our quiet weather would not last more than a few days. Thus goes 2019!
The remnants/core of Barry will push northward into the region by Monday and Tuesday.
As mentioned above, the track of the center is key to how much rain falls in our local area. A band of two to four inches is likely to accompany the center and to the east of the center. There could be pockets of more than four inches. Keep that in mind.
It is still a bit early to know where the center will track.
Most of the model guidance tracks the system into Arkansas and Tennessee. How far east, however, is key to our regions sensible weather.
If the track does push into our region then there will be heavy rain.
PWAT values will rise to and above two inches. That is extremely high. One indicator of the heavy rain potential.
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Here is the PWAT animation.
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Often times these storms will produce isolated tornadoes, as well. These tornadoes can occur in showers/convection without lightning.
Be alert for changing weather conditions by early next week.
I sent out an AWARE email earlier today.
I will likely start a live blog on Sunday or Sunday night. I will then keep you updated as the system moves into or near our region.
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Long Range
Is a heatwave possible late next week into the following week? Possible.
The long-range shows the potential of hot weather developing late next week into the following week.
These are 500 MB heights. That likely does not mean much to you.
It is upper-level heights and when you see that dark red you can expect hot temperatures. Hot meaning the upper 90s into the 100s.
This is the 500 mb heights animation. Notice the dark red developing late next week.
This is not set in stone, yet. It is something worth monitoring.
It then shifts westward.
This is a hot signal.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
Timestamp upper left.
Click the animation to expand it.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models are rarely exactly right on their display of future-cast radars.
- The timestamp is located in the upper left corner.
- During the summer months, models do not handle thunderstorms all that well. They tend to be chaotic.
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The NAM model
There could be a few storms in western Kentucky, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee today.
Click animations to enlarge them.
You can see Barry moving our way from the south.
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The NAM 3K model.
Click to enlarge.
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The GFS long-range model
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The WRF model
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Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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I pay BAMwx to help with videos.
They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.
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The Ohio Valley video
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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WeatherBrains Episode 702
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Mid-Atlantic ChaserCon 2019
- Dealing with forecasting random airmass summer thunderstorms
- Hurricane Barbara forms in Eastern Pacific
- James Spann officially releases his book
- Controversy concerning NASCAR weather delay in Chicago
- National Weather Round-Up
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
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