Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Isolated lightning today into Saturday. Most areas will remain dry. Lightning chances return towards the middle of next week.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. A cold front will bring storm chances towards the middle of next week. Some storms could be intense with high wind.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.
6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? YES. Heat index values will approach 100 degrees Saturday. Heat index values will exceed 100 degrees Sunday into at least Tuesday.
7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? NOT AT THIS TIME.
8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
9. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
10. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Thursday through Thursday night: 4. Low risk.
Friday: 4. Low risk.
Friday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Isolated mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms will be possible over most of the Quad State region through Friday. South winds will lead to hot and dry conditions for the weekend and through the first half of next week.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms. Most areas will remain dry.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: A higher chance during the afternoon hours
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 86° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest at 4 to 6 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Isolated mainly evening thunderstorms. Most areas will remain dry.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 65° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: Light east wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:12 AM
Moonset: 11:39 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms. Most areas will remain dry.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: A higher chance during the afternoon hours
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 86° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. A slight chance of an evening thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: Light south wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:08 PM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. A slight chance of thunderstorms over mainly our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (mainly north)
Timing of the precipitation: A higher chance during the afternoon hours
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 102°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: Light south wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:05 PM
Moonset: 12:01 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 93° to 96°
Southeast Missouri ~ 93° to 96°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 93° to 96°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 93° to 96°
Southern Illinois ~ 93° to 96°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 93° to 96°
Far western Kentucky ~ 93° to 96°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 93° to 96°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 93° to 96°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 93° to 96°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 73° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 73° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 73° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 73° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:04 PM
Moonset: 12:22 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 93° to 96°
Southeast Missouri ~ 93° to 96°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 93° to 96°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 93° to 96°
Southern Illinois ~ 93° to 96°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 93° to 96°
Far western Kentucky ~ 93° to 96°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 93° to 96°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 93° to 96°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 93° to 96°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 104° to 108°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 73° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 73° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 73° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 73° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:00 PM
Moonset: 12:46 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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- The heat returns. Muggy weather.
- Low end thunderstorm chances (mainly northern counties)
- A cold front enters the picture towards the middle of next week. Thunderstorms will accompany the front.
- Cooler behind next weeks cold front.
Weather advice:
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Tornadoes raked portions of western Kentucky and southwest Indiana on Tuesday. Several tornadoes touched down and caused damage. Thankfully, no lives were lost.
A much calmer weather pattern has returned to the area.
There will be low-end thunderstorm chances Thursday into Saturday. The vast majority of the region will remain dry. A few locations will pick up a quick thunderstorm. Lightning will be the primary concern.
The chances of thunderstorms will mainly be confined to our northern counties. Northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois. Perhaps far northwest Kentucky.
Again, not a big deal.
The bigger weather story will be the heat. We will see a return to hot and muggy days. By this weekend, high temperatures will be in the 90s. Heat index values will approach 100 degrees Saturday. They will exceed 100 degrees Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. I will monitor Wednesday.
Our next cold front will push into the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday night. I will need to monitor the exact timing.
Thunderstorms will accompany the front. Some of the thunderstorms will be locally intense with heavy rain, lightning, and high wind gusts. I will monitor the severe weather risk.
Behind that cold front, temperatures will drop into the 80s with lower dew points. It will feel nicer behind the front. At least for a few days. Then, the heat will return.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the FV3 Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the HRRR Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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