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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.
48-hour forecast
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Tuesday night into Saturday. I will monitor beyond Saturday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. Thunderstorms are likely this week. Some could be severe. Monitor updates.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Slow moving or training thunderstorms could cause flash flooding.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index may approach or exceed 100 degrees Wednesday into Saturday. This will be highly dependent on cloud cover and any thunderstorm complexes. That would mean lower temperatures.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Tuesday, July 11, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:44AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 65° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 65° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 65° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 65° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: Souths southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:05 AM
Moonset: 3:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Wednesday, July 12, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Low to medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Breezy, at times. Morning sun giving way to increasing clouds from the northwest. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Most likely in the afternoon, but monitor updates. There is a lower than average confidence in how these storms play out. There could be some morning storms and then another round late in the day. But, confidence in the morning round is low. If we avoid morning storms, then chances later in the day would increase. The storms would first move into Missouri and Illinois. They would then spread southeast.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. Again, confidence in the finer details remain low. Chances would be higher over MO/IL for numerous storms. That would only occur if a line of storms moves in from the northwest. I will need to monitor trends.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after 4 PM. Lower chances, for now, during the morning hours.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 90° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 90° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90° to 94°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 94°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 94°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 96° to 102°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms. Locally heavy rain. Some storms could be severe. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Locally heavy rain. Some storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars and app for severe weather updates.
Moonrise: 1:34 AM
Moonset: 4:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Thursday, July 13, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 92° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 92° to 94°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 92° to 94°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms. Locally heavy rain. Some storms could be severe. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars and app
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near storms. Locally heavy rain. Some storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars and app
Moonrise: 2:07 AM
Moonset: 5:12 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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- Warm today. A bit more humid.
- MCS’s are in the forecast. Some could bring heavy rain and severe weather. MCS’s are summer thunderstorm complexes.
- Severe weather and flash flooding.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Don’t forget the sunscreen on this summer warm days! Review summer heat safety rules.
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Forecast Discussion
Today’s Average Regional Forecast Numbers
Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and precipitation. Keep that in mind.
Monitoring the risk of thunderstorms. Some heavy.
Good day, everyone.
This is a very complicated forecast and my confidence in the details remains lower than normal.
As you know, over the past few weeks, we have experienced several MCS’s in the region. Thunderstorm complexes.
This has brought very heavy rain to portions of the region. We also experienced several rounds of severe weather.
Here are the 14 day rainfall totals and 30 day totals.
Yes, some areas still need rain, but many areas have received one to three inches.
Double click images to enlarge them. Portions of our region have experienced more than TEN inches of rain over the past few weeks.
You can also see portions of Missouri and Illinois have much lower totals.
Heaviest totals have been across northern portions of southern Illinois into northwest and south-central Kentucky and then portions of the Missouri Bootheel.
The good news, for those wanting rain, is that more rain is on the way. Some locations could receive four or more inches of rain over the coming days. Many areas will pick up 0.5 to 1.00″.
Today will be dry. Tonight should remain dry, as well. A bit warmer and a bit more humid. Dew points will be higher.
The weather becomes a bit more complicated Wednesday into Thursday.
I will be monitoring several MCS’s over the Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Thunderstorm complexes.
What happens Wednesday morning and early afternoon, will impact what happens late Wednesday afternoon and night.
Here are some of the possibilities.
A band of showers and thunderstorms could impact at least portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois during the morning and early afternoon. If that were to occur, it would shunt the higher instability levels later in the day. In other words, it won’t be as unstable.
If we avoid these morning and early afternoon thunderstorms, then chances for additional storms later in the day and evening would ramp up. The atmosphere would have more time to become unstable. Less clouds equal more heating. More heating equals an increasingly unstable atmosphere.
An MCS is forecast to develop Wednesday afternoon and evening to our north. Then, it would dive south southeast. Possibly bringing damaging wind and hail. Heavy rain and lightning, as well.
That is at least a possibility.
Model guidance during MCS season is basically useless. Models are all over the place with what happens Wednesday into Saturday.
Some models show several MCS’s tracking across our region. Other models show very little happening. I don’t trust the models during MCS season.
I will likely need to update the forecast a few times over the coming days.
MCS’s typically are now-cast events. What is a now-cast? It means forecasting in the short-range. The six to twelve hour range.
That is what I will need to do. Expect updates on the Beau Dodson Weather app. Some severe alert will be possible.
We will have a chance of additional thunderstorms Thursday through at least Saturday. Monitor updates. Additional chances of severe weather appear likely.
The primary concern will be damaging wind. A secondary concern will be large hail, torrential rain, and lightning. The tornado risk will be low, but not zero.
If we do have repeated rounds of thunderstorms, then the risk of flash flooding will increase, as well. This will need to be monitored.
There will be no shortage of moisture in the atmosphere.
Here is the PWAT value animation from the EC model. PWAT is a measure of moisture. The pink colors represent very high moisture content in the air. Notice how it repeatedly trains over our area.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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