July 11, 2019: Non-subscribers update.

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Thursday: No concerns for most of the region. A few storms are possible over western Kentucky, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee. Rain chances end once the front moves south and east. That will occur this morning into early afternoon.
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Keep in mind that it is summer. We can always have a couple of heat of the day thunderstorms pop up.
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Friday: No concerns for most of the region.
Saturday: No concerns for most of the region. Isolated lightning.
Sunday: No concerns for most of the region. Isolated lightning. Heat index values near 100 degrees.
Monday: The remnants of a tropical system may bring heavy rain into our region. It is too soon for specifics. Monitor updates.
Tuesday: The remnants of a tropical system may bring heavy rain into our region. It is too soon for specifics. Monitor updates.
Wednesday: Lightning is possible. I will monitor the potential of heavy rain in case the tropical system does move into our region and stalls.

Increasing heat develops this weekend.
A tropical system may bring heavy rain to our region early next week.
River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.

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Thursday through Saturday

Is lightning in the forecast? Widely scattered. A few storms today as the front continues to move south. Chances will end north to south. A few storms are possible over western Kentucky, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Monitor. Heat index values may approach 100 on Saturday afternoon.

Sunday through Wednesday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Isolated lightning is possible on Sunday. A tropical system may push into our region early next week.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. A tropical system may push into the region early next week. Occasionally, these systems can produce short-lived tornadoes. The eventual track of the system remains questionable.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. I will be tracking the possible tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. Flash flooding is likely along its path. It is too soon to know the track.
Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index values will rise to and above 100 degrees on Sunday. If the tropical system moves into our region then temperatures will be lower on Monday and/or Tuesday.

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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

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July 11, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Decreasing clouds. A few thunderstorms may form during the morning and early afternoon over western Kentucky, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee. Other areas should remain dry as the front continues to move south and east.. Not as humid. Warm.
My confidence in the overall forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° SE MO 84° to 88° South IL 84° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° West KY 84° to 88° NW TN 86° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Wind becoming north and northwest at 7 to 14 mph. Gusts above 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered over portions of the area (see above)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10 to 11 very high
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 64° to 66° South IL 64° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: North wind at 7 to 14 mph during the evening decreasing overnight.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some patchy fog could reduce visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 3:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:50 AM

July 12, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some afternoon cumulus clouds. Warm but not as muggy as recent days. Some patchy morning fog is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 86° to 92° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92° West KY 86° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? There could be some morning fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10 to 11 very high
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Light winds at less than 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some patchy fog could reduce visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:17 PM
Moonrise: 4:38 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:25 AM

July 13, 2019.
Saturday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some afternoon cumulus clouds. Summer warmth. Becoming muggier. An isolated storm is possible over northwest Tennessee.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 86° to 92° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92° West KY 86° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 94°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None for most of the region. I will monitor northwest Tennessee. Some storms to the south could slide northward. Low chance.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? There could be some morning fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10 to 11 very high
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° SE MO 70° to 72° South IL 70° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72° West KY 70° to 72° NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Light winds at less than 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some patchy fog could reduce visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:17 PM
Moonrise: 5:45 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:03 AM

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Sunday: High confidence. Mostly sunny early and then increasing clouds. Muggier. An isolated heat of the day storm is possible. Majority of the region will be dry. Patchy fog at night. High ranging from 90 to 95 degrees. Lows in the 70 to 74-degree range. Heat index 100 to 105. Light wind.

Monday: Low confidence. Increasing clouds. Showers and thunderstorms may develop from the south. This is highly dependent on the developing tropical system. High ranging from 90 to 95 degrees. Lows in the 68 to 72-degree range. Light wind.

Tuesday: Low confidence. Showers and thunderstorms may develop from the south. This is highly dependent on the developing tropical system. High ranging from 90 to 95 degrees. Lows in the 65 to 70-degree range. Light wind.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

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Wind forecast

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Camping and Agriculture Forecast

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Farmcast for those cutting hay and working in the fields.

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Thursday through Tuesday: Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, or Sunday.

I am closely monitoring the Gulf of Mexico. A possible tropical system could bring showers and thunderstorms into our region. For now, I am simply watching it. It is too soon to know the track.

Value-added severe weather graphics.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Warm weather into the weekend. Muggier air returns Saturday and especially on Sunday.
All eyes on the potential tropical storm development in the Gulf of Mexico.

Current conditions.

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May temperature and precipitation outlook

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Precipitation

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September temperature and precipitation outlook

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Precipitation

October temperature and precipitation outlook

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Weather
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Advice:

Heat index values will rise to and above 100 degrees on Sunday afternoon. Most likely in the 98 to 104-degree range.

I am closely monitoring a developing tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. This system is going to spread showers and thunderstorms along its path. Very heavy rain is possible in some locations.

There is a chance the system will bring heavy rain into our region. At this time, there remain questions on both strength and track of the developing system. Monitor updates.

Impacts from the system would likely not be felt until Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical Update

Beau’s message

It appears this system may bring heavy rain into our region. Although confidence is not high, it is rising.

Rain totals could exceed three inches across portions of our region. The rain chances will likely hold off until Monday and Tuesday. Rain could linger into the middle of the week.

Heavy rain is likely along the path of the eventual tropical storm/hurricane.

Monitor updates moving forward.

Click to enlarge graphics

Remember, the cone is where the center could move.

This is a spaghetti plot. What is that?

It is the same weather model that runs over and over and over again with slightly different beginning variables.

Confidence in the eventual outcome is higher when you see the lines tightly clustered together.

This is the track of the moisture from the tropical system.

As you can see, most of the EC weather model spaghetti plots bring this system into our region.

The WPC brings heavy rain into portions of Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. For now, that seems a good bet.

Where it goes from there will be key to our region’s weather. Monitor updates.

This is the seven-day rainfall forecast from the WPC/NOAA. Extremely heavy rain in Louisiana. More than a foot of rain.

You can see how they pull the system into Missouri. Again, confidence is low. Monitor updates.

Click to enlarge.

Weather Forecast Analysis.

Thursday into the weekend.

Thursday through Sunday will be mostly dry.

There could be a couple of showers and thunderstorms near the KY/TN border early Thursday morning. For the most part, the rain will have come to an end.

The cold front continues to move south and east. Once the front passes, the rain chances end.

Dew points won’t be as oppressive Thursday into Saturday. They will push back upward on Sunday.

Dew points are what control how muggy the air feels.

We have been experiencing dew points in the 70s to almost 80 degrees over the past week. Oppressive!

Let’s take a look at some heat index numbers. What the air feels like to your body (which is all that really matters). What the air feels like to your body is how your body will react. The actual air-temperature is less important.

Look at Wednesday’s numbers. Yes, we had some places top 115 degrees in the heat index values. Woosh. Air-you-wear.

Click to enlarge these graphics.

Thursday’s forecast (PM)

Friday forecast (PM)

Saturday forecast (PM)

Sunday forecast (PM)

I can’t completely rule out a few heat of the day storms on Saturday and Sunday. I would plan on dry weather. These are common in our region during July and August. They can produce locally heavy rain and strong winds. The vast majority of the region will be dry Thursday into Sunday.

The next weather story will be the tropical system that is forecast to form in the Gulf of Mexico.

This system is likely to move northward into Louisiana and Mississippi.

At this time, it appears that the system will push towards our region on Monday and Tuesday.

More and more data supports this idea.

Keep in mind, tropical systems are fickle, at best. At this time, it has not even fully formed.

Rain totals of one to four inches are likely in our region. That is IF it moves into our region. Weakening tropical systems can produce much higher rain totals.

There can also be short-lived tornadoes with land-falling tropical systems.

A few years ago, our region experienced several EF0 and EF1 tornadoes from a weakening tropical system.

Monitor updates over the coming days.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Timestamp upper left.

Click the animation to expand it.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models are rarely exactly right on their display of future-cast radars.
The timestamp is located in the upper left corner.
During the summer months, models do not handle thunderstorms all that well. They tend to be chaotic.

The Hrrr model

There could be a few storms in western Kentucky, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee today.

Click animations to enlarge them.

The GFS long-range model

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The WRF model

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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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WeatherBrains Episode 702

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a National Aviation Meteorologist at the FAA Command Center near Warrenton, Virginia. He earned his degree at the University of Oklahoma, and started a career in broadcasting immediately afterwards.

He then moved on to the NWS. Michael Eckert, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: