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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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July 10, 2017
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Best chances would be near I-64 corridor. Warm and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 11, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Some cumulus clouds. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Hot and muggy. Heat index values of 96 to 102 degrees.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94 IL ~ 88 to 94 KY ~ 88 to 94 TN ~ 88 to 94
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 12, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Hot and muggy. Some cumulus clouds. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Heat index values of 96 to 102 degrees.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94 IL ~ 88 to 94 KY ~ 88 to 94 TN ~ 88 to 94
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South and southwest winds at 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 13, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Hot and muggy. Some cumulus clouds. Scattered thunderstorms possible. Heat index values of 95 to 102 degrees.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94 IL ~ 88 to 94 KY ~ 88 to 94 TN ~ 88 to 94
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South and southwest winds at 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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July 14, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Some cumulus clouds. Scattered thunderstorms possible. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94 IL ~ 88 to 94 KY ~ 88 to 94 TN ~ 88 to 94
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74 IL ~ 70 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: Variable winds at 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Nom but monitor updates.
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LOW CONFIDENCE on the Saturday and Sunday forecast. Guidance is all over the place as to where a cold front might stall out. If it stalls over our area, then thunderstorm chances wll continue into Saturday and Sunday.
July 15, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Some cumulus clouds. Warm. Perhaps less muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: North winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 16, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? N0
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: North winds at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Monday night through Wednesday night: Widespread severe weather is unlikely. I can’t rule out some thunderstorms. The I-64 corridor would be the most likely area for storms. From there into northwest Kentucky.
Thursday through Sunday: Some storms are possible on Thursday and Friday. Low-end risk for severe weather.
Saturday and Sunday’s forecast might include storms, but confidence is very low.
Any storms that form, over the coming week, could produce heavy downpours, gusty winds, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.
More of the same. That will be the weather story into the middle of the week. Hot and muggy conditions. Daily highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s. Dew points in the 66 to 74-degree range. Heat index values of 95 to 100 with pockets of 100 to 104 degrees. Not the best outdoor activities weather.
We will have some disturbances that will pass to our north over the coming days. There could be a few thunderstorms develop over northern parts of southern Illinois into southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky. There remain a lot of questions about precipitation coverage. Guidance is of little to no help in these type of set-ups.
MCS’s (large thunderstorm complexes) will be the norm through at least Wednesday from Minnesota and Iowa into Wisconsin, central and northern Illinois, and central and northern Indiana. These large thunderstorm complexes typically peak at night. They normal move from the northwest towards the southeast. The ridge of high pressure will keep the MCS’s mostly to our north.
Here is a satellite view of the MCS from Sunday night and Monday morning. You are looking at an IR satellite view. It picks up on cloud temperatures. The large red-colored area represents very cold thunderstorm tops. These storms are 50,000 to 60,000′ tall. High up into the atmosphere.
Click image to enlarge
Here is an animation from the GOES 16 satellite. Watch the thunderstorm mass explode over Minnesota. It thens moves south and southeast weakening by Monday morning.
The heat dome will break down by the end of the week and shift west. That will allow the storm track to drift further into our local area. That will mean two things. An increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front and perhaps somewhat less muggy air by Saturday and Sunday.
Confidence in the weekend forecast is low. That means significant adjustments are possible.
Here are the heat index maps for Tuesday into Wednesday
Actual air temperatures will range from 88 to 94 degrees. Heat index values will vary from location to location.
Tuesday heat index values
Wednesday heat index values
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
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