Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 11, 2022. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

Temperatures will vary greatly today based on cloud cover


48-hour forecast



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Monday to Monday

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.   A slight chance late tonight and Tuesday.  A low-end chance Sunday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  Not at this time.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast?  Not at this time.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  Yes.  Monday and Tuesday.  I will keep an eye on next Sunday and Monday.

5.  Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast?   No.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

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July 11, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Monday Forecast:  Mostly sunny. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94°  /  SE MO 90° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 90° to 94° /  South IL 90° to 94°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94°  /  West KY 90° to 94° /  NW TN 90° to 94°
Winds will be from the: South 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset:  8:18 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild.  A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 10%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 10% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74°  /  SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 70° /  South IL 68° to 72°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 70° to 74°  /  West KY 70° to 74° /  NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the:  Southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 6:49 PM
Moonset:  3:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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July 12, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny.  A chance of a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94°  /  SE MO 90° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 90° to 94° /  South IL 90° to 94°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94°  /  West KY 90° to 94° /  NW TN 90° to 94°
Winds will be from the: West 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset:  8:17 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74°  /  SE MO 66° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 72° /  South IL 66° to 72°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 70° to 74°  /  West KY 70° to 74° /  NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the:  Southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 7:49 PM
Moonset:  4:04 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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July 13, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 92°  /  SE MO 85° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 85° to 90° /  South IL 85° to 90°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90°  /  West KY 85° to 90° /  NW TN 86° to 92°
Winds will be from the: West 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
Sunset:  8:17 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74°  /  SE MO 66° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 72° /  South IL 66° to 72°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 70° to 74°  /  West KY 70° to 74° /  NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the:  Southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 8:49 PM
Moonset:  5:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

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July 14, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast:  Mostly sunny
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 92°  /  SE MO 85° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 85° to 90° /  South IL 85° to 90°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90°  /  West KY 85° to 90° /  NW TN 86° to 92°
Winds will be from the: West 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset:  8:16 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74°  /  SE MO 66° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 72° /  South IL 66° to 72°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 70° to 74°  /  West KY 70° to 74° /  NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the:  Southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 9:38 PM
Moonset:  6:26 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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July 15, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Friday  Forecast:  Mostly sunny. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 92°  /  SE MO 85° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 85° to 90° /  South IL 85° to 90°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90°  /  West KY 85° to 90° /  NW TN 86° to 92°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
Sunset:  8:16 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74°  /  SE MO 66° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 72° /  South IL 66° to 72°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 70° to 74°  /  West KY 70° to 74° /  NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 10:19 PM
Moonset:  7:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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July 16, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95°  /  SE MO 92° to 95° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 92° to 95° /  South IL 92° to 95°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95°  /  West KY 92° to 95° /  NW TN 92° to 95°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 96° to 102°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
Sunset:  8:15 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75°  /  SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° /  South IL 72° to 75°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 75°  /  West KY 72° to 75° /  NW TN 72° to 75°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 10:52 PM
Moonset:  8:59 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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July 17, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast:  Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After 11 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95°  /  SE MO 92° to 95° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 92° to 95° /  South IL 92° to 95°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95°  /  West KY 92° to 95° /  NW TN 92° to 95°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 96° to 102°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:48 AM
Sunset:  8:15 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 10%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% /  the rest of South IL ~ 10%  /  West KY ~ 10% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10%  /  NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75°  /  SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° /  South IL 72° to 75°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 75°  /  West KY 72° to 75° /  NW TN 72° to 75°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 11:20 PM
Moonset:  10:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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July 18, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Monday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Hot and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 98°  /  SE MO 93° to 96° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 93° to 96° /  South IL 93° to 96°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 93° to 96°  /  West KY 93° to 96° /  NW TN 94° to 98°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 110°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
Sunset:  8:14 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76°  /  SE MO 73° to 76° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 73° to 76° /  South IL 73° to 76°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 73° to 76°  /  West KY 73° to 76° /  NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 11:46 PM
Moonset:  11:18 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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July 19, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Hot and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 95° to 100°  /  SE MO 95° to 100° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 95° to 100° /  South IL 95° to 100°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 95° to 100°  /  West KY 95° to 100° /  NW TN 95° to 100°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 110°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
Sunset:  8:13 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80°  /  SE MO 75° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 75° to 80° /  South IL 75° to 80°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 75° to 80°  /  West KY 75° to 80° /  NW TN 75° to 80°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 12:20 AM
Moonset:  12:23 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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July 20, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Hot and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 95° to 100°  /  SE MO 95° to 100° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 95° to 100° /  South IL 95° to 100°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 95° to 100°  /  West KY 95° to 100° /  NW TN 95° to 100°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 110°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:50 AM
Sunset:  8:12 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80°  /  SE MO 75° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 75° to 80° /  South IL 75° to 80°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 75° to 80°  /  West KY 75° to 80° /  NW TN 75° to 80°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise: 12:20 AM
Moonset:  12:55 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **


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Today through July 20th:  Severe weather is currently not anticipated.  Keep in mind, summer thunderstorms can produce isolated wind damage.  There is usually a lot of energy in the atmosphere during heat waves.  If storms form, then they could produce high wind.  At this time, thunderstorms are not in the forecast.  Monitor updates.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.


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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

    1.   A mostly calm week of weather.
    2.   Hot Monday and Tuesday.
    3.   Milder Wednesday through Friday.
    4.   Heat returns.
    5.   Major heat wave in the charts?

 

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages.  We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner.  Thus, we made the app.  See links at the bottom of the page.

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Forecast Discussion

For the most part, calm weather is expected today through next Sunday.

A weak cold front will move into the region late Monday night and Tuesday.  Perhaps a couple of storms will form along the front.  Most areas will remain dry.

We need rain.

Here are the latest drought monitor maps.

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Heavy rain fell Friday night over some of my forecast counties.  Rain totals ranged from 0.00″ to over four inches!

Radar estimated totals from the last seven days.  I don’t think this captured some of the heavier thunderstorms.  A few spots had very high rain totals.

The Weather Observatory, in Massac County, has received over seven inches of rain since June 1st.  We are one of the exceptions.  Many areas are in drought and drought conditions have been worsening.

We will take what we can get.

Mostly dry weather is likely over the coming week and perhaps next week, as well.

There are some models that are predicting a major heat wave as we move into next week and the week after.  Some of the data is quite eye popping.  I am not a huge fan of long range models.  They tend to skew in different directions and can sometimes can off the tracks when it comes to extreme weather.

With that said, data has been consistently showing the potential of a major heat wave next week and the week after.  This would be bad news for drought stricken areas.  Let’s pay attention to the latest guidance as we move forward.

Here are some of the models and what they are showing for temperatures.  We will see how this trends.  Next week could bring some triple digit readings.

These are different models and what they are predicting.  I chose Paducah as a central location.

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Let’s monitor trends this week and see if these triple digits verify next week.  Either way, it looks hot.  Dry, as well.  Not the best news for those in need of rain.

The BAM long range video discusses the potential heat.

You can find these videos on your Beau Dodson Weather app or on the www.weathertalk.com website under the video tab.

 

 

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

Double click on image to enlarge it

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

Click on the image to expand it.

This outlook covers July 11th through July 17th

Click on the image to expand it.

These are typically updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers July 18th through July 24th

Click on the image to expand it

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  90 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers July 22ndthrough August 4th
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Precipitation outlook

 

Monthly Outlooks

SUMMER OUTLOOK

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.

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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

July Temperature Outlook

July Precipitation Outlook

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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

August Temperature Outlook

August Precipitation Outlook

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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

September Temperature Outlook

 

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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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