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Wednesday: Heat index values above 105 degrees later today. A cold front will deliver scattered thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds. There is a low-end severe weather risk. The time-frame would be afternoon into Wednesday night.
Thursday: No concerns for most of the region. Isolated lightning during the morning if the front slows a tad. That would mainly be over our eastern counties (Pennyrile area of western Kentucky).
Keep in mind that it is summer. We can always have a couple of heat of the day thunderstorms pop up. The chances of rain will be low. They may not be zero.
Friday: No concerns for most of the region.
Saturday: No concerns for most of the region. Isolated lightning.
Sunday: No concerns for most of the region. Isolated lightning.
Monday: No concerns for most of the region. Isolated lightning.
Tuesday: I will be monitoring a possible tropical system to our south. The movement of that system will dictate our local weather conditions.
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- A cold front will push into the region Wednesday afternoon and night. That front will deliver a few showers and thunderstorms.
- Heat index values on Wednesday will top 100 degrees. Mainly 105 to 115.
- Increasing heat develops this weekend. If the potential tropical system misses our region then it will be quite hot and muggy next week.
- River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.
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Wednesday through Friday
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Scattered on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Isolated on Thursday and Friday (most areas will remain dry).
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. A few intense storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low risk. Wednesday’s storms could produce a few isolated flash flooding issues. For the most part, the risk is low.
- Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index values around 110 degrees today. In the 90s on Thursday and perhaps closer to mid to upper 90s on Friday.
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Saturday through Tuesday
- Is lightning in the forecast? Isolated.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Not at this time.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. I will be tracking the possible tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. Flash flooding is likely along its path. It is too soon to know the track.
- Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index values will rise to and above 100 Sunday into Tuesday. IF the tropical system misses us. If the tropical system moves into our region then temperatures will be lower on Monday and/or Tuesday.
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
County Maps: Click Here
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July 10, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Partly sunny. A cold front will push into the region from the west. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front. The best chance will be during the afternoon hours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 94° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° West KY 90° to 94° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 105° to 115°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Stronger storms could produce strong winds and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 10 to 12 very high
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds overnight. Widely scattered thunderstorms before 3 AM. I will be monitoring the speed of the above mentioned cold front. If the front slows then the bulk of the precipitation will fall on Wednesday night vs day. Keep in mind, many areas may remain dry. This will not be a solid line of thunderstorms. A mild night. Patchy fog developing.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Light winds
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 30% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roads and lightning. A few storms could produce strong wind gusts.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 2:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:16 AM
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July 11, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Decreasing clouds. A slight chance of morning thunderstorms over our eastern counties. That would mainly be the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 86° to 92° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92° West KY 86° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 94°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Ending.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none for most of the area. There could be some morning fog. I will monitor the speed of the cold front in case a few lingering showers and thunderstorms remain over our eastern counties. That would be during the morning hours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10 to 11 very high
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 64° to 66° South IL 64° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Light north and northwest winds
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some patchy fog could reduce visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 3:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:50 AM
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July 12, 2019.
Friday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some afternoon cumulus clouds. Summer warmth.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 86° to 92° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92° West KY 86° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 94°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? There could be some morning fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10 to 11 very high
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 64° to 66° South IL 64° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Light winds at less than 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some patchy fog could reduce visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:17 PM
Moonrise: 4:38 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:25 AM
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Saturday: High confidence. Mostly sunny. An isolated heat of the day storm is possible. Majority of the region will be dry. Patchy fog at night. High ranging from 90 to 95 degrees. Lows in the 65 to 70-degree range. Light wind.
Sunday: High confidence. Mostly sunny. An isolated heat of the day storm is possible. Majority of the region will be dry. Patchy fog at night. High ranging from 90 to 95 degrees. Lows in the 65 to 70-degree range. Light wind.
Monday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. I will be closely monitoring the track of a possible tropical system moving out of the Gulf of Mexico. It is too soon to know if it will impact our region. An isolated heat of the day storm is possible on Monday. Majority of the region will be dry (unless the tropical system moves north). Patchy fog at night. High ranging from 90 to 95 degrees. Lows in the 65 to 70-degree range. Light wind.
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Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Click to enlarge
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Wind forecast
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Farmcast for those cutting hay and working in the fields.
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Graphic-cast
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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
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Missouri
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Illinois
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Kentucky
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Tennessee
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday through Tuesday: Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, or Monday. I am monitoring Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. There will be a low-end severe weather risk. This would mainly be over Missouri and Illinois. Lower risk over Kentucky and Tennessee.
A cold front on Wednesday will deliver the best chance of storms. I will keep an eye on instability and wind shear. I can’t rule out a few storms producing hail and high winds.
Isolated storms are possible, during the heat of the day, on Friday through Tuesday of next week.
I am closely monitoring the Gulf of Mexico. A possible tropical system could bring showers and thunderstorms into our region. For now, I am simply watching it. It is too soon to know the track.
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Value-added severe weather graphics.
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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.
Log into your www.weathertalk.com
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Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
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24-hour precipitation outlook.
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Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
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- A cold front arrives on Wednesday and Wednesday night. There will be a few storms along the front.
- Hot weather this weekend into next week.
- Monitoring the tropics.
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Current conditions.
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May temperature and precipitation outlook
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Precipitation
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September temperature and precipitation outlook
October temperature and precipitation outlook
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Advice:
Monitor updates concerning storms Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. A few storms could produce gusty wind and hail. Heavy rain and lightning, of course.
Heat index values this afternoon will top 100 degrees.
It will be hot Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Heat index values will range from 96 to 100 degrees. High UV readings, as well.
If the tropical system misses our region then hot and dry weather will be with us into next week. For now, we need to monitor the tropical system.
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Weather Forecast Analysis.
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Wednesday’s Cold Front
A cold front will push into the region Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. A few storms could be on the strong side. There will be plenty of moisture and instability to tap into. That means locally heavy rain. Typical forecast for a summer cold front.
The front will move east/southeast on Wednesday evening and night. This will begin to shift the rain chances out of our region.
I will need to monitor Thursday morning in case the front is slower in its departure. Some thunderstorms may linger into Thursday. This would most likely happen across western Kentucky and Tennessee. I will be monitoring the speed of the front.
You can see the front on these two maps.
The first map is for Wednesday. The second map is for Thursday.
The cold front is the blue line with blue triangles. The red line with red half-circles would be a warm front.
And, Thursday’s weather map. The cold front continues to move south and east.
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Thursday onward.
Thursday through Monday should be dry (assuming that front does continue to push east and south). That appears to be the case and is the going forecast.
It will be quite warm/hot as we move into the weekend. Heat index values will range from 96 to 104 degrees Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
Keep in mind, heat of the day summer storms are usually a possibility in our region. Rain chances at any given location will be 10% or less. I can’t completely rule out a few heat of the day storms. These are common in our region during July and August. They can produce locally heavy rain and strong winds. The vast majority of the region will be dry Thursday into Sunday.
Finally, I am monitoring a potential tropical system that could form in the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend. It is way too soon to speculate on the track and intensity.
The WPC brings heavy rain into portions of Texas and Louisiana. For now, that seems a good bet. The system would likely move into one of those two states. Perhaps both.
Where it goes from there will be key to our region’s weather. Monitor updates.
This is the seven-day rainfall forecast from NOAA. Extremely heavy rain near the Texas and Louisiana State line.
You can see how they pull the system into Missouri. Again, confidence is low. Monitor updates.
Click to enlarge.
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The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the area.
They give it a high likelihood of becoming at least a depression and perhaps a tropical storm.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
Timestamp upper left.
Click the animation to expand it.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models are rarely exactly right on their display of future-cast radars.
- The timestamp is located in the upper left corner.
- During the summer months, models do not handle thunderstorms all that well. They tend to be chaotic.
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The NAM 3K
Some of the models do not show much precip on Wednesday. I have kept the chance of rain around 30%.
Click animations to enlarge them.
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The Hrrr
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The WRF model
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Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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I pay BAMwx to help with videos.
They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.
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The Ohio Valley video
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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WeatherBrains Episode 702
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Mid-Atlantic ChaserCon 2019
- Dealing with forecasting random airmass summer thunderstorms
- Hurricane Barbara forms in Eastern Pacific
- James Spann officially releases his book
- Controversy concerning NASCAR weather delay in Chicago
- National Weather Round-Up
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