July 1, 2024: Unsettled weather developing. Monitoring the risk of thunderstorms.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. A chance of lightning Wednesday through Saturday. I will need to monitor next Sunday and Monday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Thunderstorms mid to late week could produce damaging wind gusts. A low-end severe weather risk. Monitor updates.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? YES. Thunderstorm complexes could produce two to four+ inches of rain in a few short hours. I will be monitoring mid to late week. Pockets of flash flooding will likely develop.

In general, rain totals will range from 0.5 to 1.5″. Then, there will be the heavier pockets.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? POSSIBLE. Heat index values may approach or exceed 100 degrees Wednesday and perhaps Thursday. Thursday will depend on cloud cover. I will monitor Friday.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? POSSIBLE. We will need to monitor Wednesday. It could be close in some counties.

8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

9. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

10. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Monday through Monday night: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday night: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Dry conditions are expected through Tuesday with an east wind today and south wind Tuesday. The humidity will increase on Wednesday and result in a chance of thunderstorms late Wednesday through Friday. A cold front will bring an end to the rain chances and the heat and humidity as it passes on Friday.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Adjustments are likely in the rain probabilities once confidence increases in the track of the thunderstorm complexes (MCS’s). MCS’s are very difficult to predict more than 12 to 24 hours in advance.

If you have outdoor plans, later this week, then monitor updated forecasts. Have a plan B. Stay weather-aware.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: East 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:52 AM
Moonset: 4:24 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 90° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A small chance of a late night thunderstorm towards our far northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. A small chance far north.
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none (I will monitor our far northern counties).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:27 AM
Moonset: 5:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Adjustments are likely in the rain probabilities once confidence increases in the track of the thunderstorm complexes (MCS’s). They are very difficult to predict more than 12 to 24 hours in advance.

Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warmer. More humid. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly during the afternoon and evening. A lower chance before noon.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 92° to 95°
Southeast Missouri ~ 92° to 95°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 92° to 95°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 92° to 95°
Southern Illinois ~ 92° to 95°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 92° to 95°
Far western Kentucky ~ 92° to 95°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 92° to 95°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 92° to 95°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 92° to 95°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 108°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lighting. Heavy rain. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the weather radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous (more numerous if we have a complex of thunderstorms).
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 72° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 3:09 AM
Moonset: 6:45 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warmer. Humid. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 92°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~88° to 92°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lighting. Heavy rain. Gusty winds near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B ready. Thunderstorms are possible.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous (more numerous if we have a complex of thunderstorms).
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 72° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 4:00 AM
Moonset: 7:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Nice today and tonight. Cool temperatures tonight.
2. Warmer weather returns Tuesday into the weekend.
3. Muggy and unsettled weather mid to late week.
4. Locally heavy thunderstorms could produce flash flooding concerns.
5. Those with outdoor activities should monitor updates.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Today will be a nice day across the region. Decent temperatures and low dew points. It will feel comfortable outside.

Don’t get used to it. The weather will flip tomorrow into late week.

Much higher dew points will push back into the region by the middle of the week. This will make it feel hot and muggy. Dew points in the 70s and perhaps even 80s are likely. Combine that with temperatures in the 90s and heat index values jump above 100 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday.

Thunderstorm chances.

The big weather story will be MCS’s (summer thunderstorm complexes). We have been talking about MCS’s for weeks. They bring most of our summer rainfall.

Portions of the region experienced very heavy rain a couple of days ago. One to five inches fell in some counties. Other counties received no rainfall. That is how summer usually is. The have’s and the have nots. We are used to this.

A frontal boundary will find itself draped in and near our region Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and perhaps Saturday.

Watch CAPE values. CAPE is a measure of energy in the atmosphere.

Today. No CAPE.

Wednesday. CAPE rapidly builds back into the region. If thunderstorms can tap into those CAPE numbers, then some could be intense.

This is when thunderstorm chances will increase. Unfortunately, I can’t promise you rain at X time at X spot. MCS’s are extremely difficult to forecast more than 12 to 24 hours in advance. They are not known for the predictibility.

This makes it difficult for those wanting to make outdoor plans.

The best advice, that I can give, is to go about your activities. Have a plan B. Monitor both my weather updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars. Links at the bottom of the page.

There will be thunderstorms in the region Wednesday through at least Friday. It is just a matter of exact location and amounts.

Speaking of amounts.

I suspect there will be bands of three to six inches of rain mixed in with these MCS events. In general, the region can expect 0.50″ to 1.50″ of rain. Then, pockets of much higher totals will lead to flash flooding.

Remember last year? During July and August we experienced severe flooding from training MCS’s. Training means storms repeatedly move over the same areas. Those events produced over 20 inches of rain in some counties.

MCS’s are copious rain producers.

PWAT values will be towards the 99% percentile. That means an extreme amount of moisture in the air. Storms will tap into those extreme PWAT values and produce gully washers.

PWAT values today are low.

By Wednesday, there will be abnormally high PWAT values.

If flash flooding does develop, in a few locations, then avoid flooded roadways. Storms could produce one to three inches of rain in less than thirty minutes.

There are questions about whether rain chances will linger into Saturday and Sunday. I will need to monitor that portion of the forecast.

For now, I have peak chances Wednesday through Friday. Perhaps Thursday delivering the highest probabilities.

Here are some different models. Models do not handle MCS’s very well. Rainfall totals can vary GREATLY.

But, just to give you an idea on what different models are showing.

Some of the data keeps Wednesday mostly dry over a good chunk of our region.

The NAM model favors our far northern counties for precipitation.

The GFS and EC shows thunderstorms farther south Wednesday/Wednesday night.

There will also be a risk of severe weather Wednesday through Friday. Some of the thunderstorms could produce 60 to 70 mph wind, nickel size hail, torrential downpours, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

If lightning threatens, then move activities indoors. As always. Use common sense storm rules.

We will have to closely monitor the weather pattern over the coming weeks. We will be swinging between the heat ridge (dry) and MCS’s (floods). The placement of the heat dome/the heat ridge will determine where the MCS’s move.

MCS’s can bring damaging wind, as well.

Microburst winds can also occur with summer thunderstorms. Microbursts occur when thunderstorms collapse. All that air pushes downward and outward. This can cause damage to trees and power lines.

A microburst is a localized column of sinking air (downdraft) within a thunderstorm and is usually less than or equal to 2.5 miles in diameter. Microbursts can cause extensive damage at the surface, and in some instances, can be life-threatening.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.