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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy. A 20%-30% chance for a thunderstorm. A couple of storms could be quite strong early in the evening. Locally severe.
Temperatures: Lows mostly in the 60’s
Winds: West and southwest at 5-10 mph through the day.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might be some evening precipitation. Monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated severe weather risk.
What impact is expected? Thunderstorms could produce a couple of reports of hail and high winds. Lightning and heavy rain, of course with any storms that form.
Quite a few questions remain on the exact placement of thunderstorm complexes late Tuesday night into Thursday. The track of each of these systems will determine just how much rain falls. Rainfall totals could vary GREATLY across our region over the coming days. Some places may pick up less than 0.50″ and other places may pick up more than 3″ of rain. Hard to nail down the EXACT track of these thunderstorm complexes until they form. Keep this in mind.
Wednesday – A 70%-80% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s
Winds: Variable and shifting winds at 5-10 mph. Winds might be out of the northeast and east…shifting to the southeast. A bit variable on winds today because of a boundary near our region.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Yes or have a backup plan.
Is severe weather expected? A marginal risk for a strong storm.
What is the chance for precipitation? A 70%-80% chance for precipitation.
What impact is expected? If a storm forms then lightning is the main concern. Marginal risk for some hail and strong winds. Flash flooding can not be ruled out.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Wednesday night – Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: Winds becoming southwest at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have a back up plan in case it rains.
Is severe weather expected? A strong storm possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-70% chance
What impact is expected? Heavy downpours and lightning. Can’t rule out flash flooding concerns.
Thursday – A 60% chance for morning showers and thunderstorms. Then a 40% chance during the afternoon. Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: Highs from 76 to 82 degrees
Winds: South/southwest winds in the morning becoming west/northwest late morning and afternoon at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have alternative plans in case it rains.
Is severe weather expected? A strong storm possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% chance during the morning and a 40% chance during the afternoon
What impact is expected? Thunderstorms could produce heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. Can not rule out some flooding concerns…especially if we end up with some big totals on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Thursday night – Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: Winds becoming west/northwest at 10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have a back up plan in case it rains.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% chance
What impact is expected? If storms occur then lightning and a heavy downpour possible.
Friday – A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: Highs from 78 to 84 degrees
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-15 mph during the morning. West/northwest winds in the afternoon at 10-15 mph. Gusty winds possible at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have alternative plans in case it rains.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70% chance
What impact is expected? Storms could produce lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds.
Weekend weather will bring additional shower and storm chances. Still some questions, however, on how much coverage we will have to deal with. I will be analyzing the latest data as it arrives. I will continue to update accordingly.
Saturday will bring a 40% chance for storms. Highs around 82 degrees.
Sunday will bring a 40% chance for storms. Highs around 85 degrees.
The front may sag a bit further south over the weekend. If so then the best rain and storm chances will be along the Kentucky and Tennessee border. Keep that in mind for Saturday and Sunday.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Some heavy rain is in the forecast
2. Smoke now covers our entire region from Alaska and Canada. How will this impact flooding concerns?
3. Temperatures will remain below normal through the week
4. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
The main story for Wednesday is going to be the increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Widespread precipitation is going to move into our region from the north and northwest (and develop on top of us). This will occur on Wednesday into Thursday. With additional precipitation chances into next week.
Some of the rain will be heavy. The question is how heavy.
I am not quite sure how to factor in the smoke that covers our region (see below). Scientific studies indicate this could enhance flash flooding concerns. Some studies indicate that what rain does fall is heavier. Although some studies indicate it can delay rain from falling from Cumulonimbus Clouds. This is not something most forecasters are taught. It is a bit complex to figure out how this smoke will impact our region over the coming days.
Quite a few questions remain on the exact placement of thunderstorm complexes late Tuesday night into Thursday. The track of each of these systems will determine just how much rain falls. Rainfall totals could vary GREATLY across our region over the coming days. Some places may pick up less than 0.50″ and other places may pick up more than 3″ of rain. Hard to nail down the EXACT track of these thunderstorm complexes until they form. Keep this in mind.
I would not be surprised to see 1-3″ of rain over parts of our area between Wednesday and Thursday night. Pockets of greater than 3″ will be possible. I am not sure what counties will end up with the heaviest rain. This will become more clear as the front sags into the region later tonight and tomorrow morning. Where the heavy rain sets up shop we could have issues. Luck of the draw with where that happens.
Keep in mind that often times training thunderstorms can produce very heavy rainfall in short periods of time. Where storms train is key to the flash flooding potential. Monitor updates as this will be a now-cast on Wednesday into Thursday.
The threat for severe weather appears small on Wednesday and Thursday. But, the threat is not zero. Just very small. I am more concerned about the potential of flooding or flash flooding. Especially since much of the region is saturated (I realize some of you have not had nearly as much rain as others).
Temperatures on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be below normal. Here are the Wednesday high temperature departures. Several degrees below normal.
Normal high temperatures are around 88 degrees
Normal low temperatures are around 66 degrees
Now, one thing to keep in mind during the Month of July is that overnight lows for the first week could be closer to normal. This will be because of cloud cover and wet ground conditions.
If you have noticed a haze in the sky then it might be because Alaska and parts of Canada are having severe/widespread forecast fires. The jet stream is driving the smoke well southward into the United States.
You can see the smoke on this satellite view. It drops into eastern sections of North Dakota and Minnesota and then dives into our region.
Here is the jet stream winds. See how they come out of Alaska and into Canada? Then they drop into the U.S.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Fourth of July storms or nice weather?
2. River flooding concerns
I know many of you have plans on Friday into the weekend. I wish I could tell you that it won’t rain on your picnic or event. I can not promise you that. But, it does not look like it will rain all day and night. It does appear that scattered showers and storms will occur. Perhaps even periods of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday chances will be in the 40% range during the morning and 60%-70% chance on Friday afternoon.
Saturday chances will be in the 30%-40% range. Same for Sunday.
The chances might be greatest along the Kentucky and Tennessee border over the weekend. The front may sag a bit further south. Thus, highest rain chances could end up on the border counties.
Any storms that form could produce very heavy downpours. Some areas will probably miss out on Saturday and Sunday. But those who do end up with storms could pick up quite a bit of rain. Same as most summer type storms.
If you have outdoor plans on Friday into Sunday then have a back up plan in mind. Don’t cancel any plans or change any plans. There is still some time fine tune the forecast.
Temperatures will remain in the 80’s through the extended forecast.
Looking ahead to next week
Unsettled weather may continue into next week with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some heavy rain possible.
The front/boundary over our region may temporarily push northward for a few days. That might mean a couple of above normal temperature days or near normal. Then another surge of below normal temperatures will arrive as a strong cold front pushes into the region towards the middle of next week. Starting the heavy rain cycle all over again.
CFS-2 temperature forecast is for July 3rd through July 13th. Averages.
River flooding continues to be an issue in our region. Recent heavy rainfall isn’t helping our cause. More heavy rain could cause additional problems.
Historically a pattern like this means multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Some storms could be heavy. I have concerns that the rivers are so high. This will need to be monitored.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Rainfall on Wednesday into Friday could be heavy at times. A widespread rain event is forecast. Just about everywhere should pick up 0.50″-1.00″ of rain. There will be pockets of 1-3″+ to deal with in some counties.
Here is the official 7 day WPC rainfall forecast. Keep in mind…this is broad-brushed.
The heaviest rain axis will likely shift around a little bit.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is a TWO for Wednesday into Thursday.
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible. Heavy rain possible
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible. Heavy rain possible.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible, but below severe levels.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible, but below severe levels.
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible, but below severe levels.
Heavy rain will be possible on Wednesday into at least Thursday. Perhaps beyond that, as well. Flash flooding can’t be ruled out.
Rivers will continue to remain high over the coming week. Check the lake and river stages for details.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
