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Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location). For all of your families eye care needs.
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.
You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.
They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.
If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
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Looking for some tasty holiday treats? Fluff Cupcakes has what you and your family need. Located in Benton, Kentucky. They even deliver!
I have used Fluff Cupcakes, during Thanksgiving and Christmas, for the last couple of years. I can tell you that the cupcakes are delicious. Be sure and contact Tracy and place your order. Birthdays, holidays, or just because! Visit them on Facebook at this link – click here
I have launched a new weather texting service! Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
Weather Talk is a monthly subscription texting (and more) service. Supporting this helps cover the daily costs (average monthly costs are $700+) or all of the data, my time, and the Shadow Angel Foundation. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones. You can sign up and opt out of the text messages, as well.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three. These are found behind the Personal Notification Settings on the weathertalk.com page.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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January 8, 2017
Sunday Night: Cloudy. Some clearing after midnight. Not as cold as recent nights.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 16 to 24 degrees.
Wind Chill: 10 to 18 degrees
Winds: Becoming south and southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Sunset will be at 4:55 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 1:45 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:46 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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January 9, 2017
Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. Increasingly cloudy as the day wears on. Not as cold as recent days.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 36 to 44 degree range
Wind Chill: 10-20 degrees early in the morning.
Winds: South and southeast 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Sunrise will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:56 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 1
Moonrise will be at 2:34 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:54 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Monday Night: Cloudy. A 40% for showers. At this time, it appears the precipitation should remain liquid. Breezy, at times.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible. Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Low temperatures early in the night (30’s). Temperatures may rise into the 40’s by sunrise
Wind Chill:
Winds: South winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 35+ mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage through the night
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Small risk at the beginning of the precipitation.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and rain coverage.
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January 10, 2017
Tuesday: Cloudy. Mild. Showers likely. A rumble of thunder possible. Windy.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning. Breezy.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56 to 62 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South at 10-20 mph with gusts to 38 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no. Lightning possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunrise will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:57 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 3:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:01 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Showers possible, especially early. Small risk for lightning.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Gusty winds. Maybe lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 36 near Mt Vernon to the lower /middle 40’s over western Kentucky
Wind Chill:
Winds: Southwest to west at 10-25 mph and gusty. Winds becoming variable and may eventually change to north and northeast.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60% (60% early and then 40% late)
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread. Diminishing as the night wears on.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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Complicated forecast Wednesday through next weekend. A frontal boundary in or near the region might mean a wide range of temperatures. I can’t rule out a wintry mix over portions of the region late in the week. The boundary and temperatures will need to be closely monitored.
I will be monitoring for the potential of heavy rain, as well.
Significant adjustments are possible in the overall forecast.
January 11, 2017
Wednesday: Cloudy. Showers possible. Breezy, at times. Mild for January.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower 50’s in Mt Vernon to lower 60’s over west Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
Winds: South at 8-16 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No. Lightning possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor. Rain is possible.
Sunrise will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:58 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 4:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:03 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Mild. Showers possible. A thunderstorm possible. It is possible that temperatures rise at night.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 46 to 54 degrees. Temperatures might be a bit higher than this.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Rain is possible.
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January 12, 2017
Thursday: Cloudy. Warm. Windy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 58 to 66 degree range
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southwest at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor. Rain is possible.
Sunrise will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:59 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 1
Moonrise will be at 5:35 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:00 a.m. Full moon
Thursday Night: Cloudy. Showers possible. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 44-54 degrees. A frontal boundary might mean a wide range of temperatures.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Southwest to west at 8-16 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Rain is possible.
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January 13, 2017
Friday: Cloudy. A chance for showers. Perhaps turning colder from north to south. Wide range of temperatures possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 40’s near Mt Vernon and in the 50’s over west Kentucky and west Tennessee.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southwest at 6-12 mph. Winds may vary across the region.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Most likely none. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor. Rain is possible.
Sunrise will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 500 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 6:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:51 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Friday Night: Cloudy. Perhaps turning colder from north to south. Precipitation possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Wintry precipitation possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from the upper 20’s near Mt Vernon, Illinois to the lower 40’s over west Kentucky and west Tennessee.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Variable winds at 7-14 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.Visit their website here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Busy week of weather ahead of us
- Strong and gusty winds
- Rain chances
- Updated winter weather outlook discusses the potential for snow, sleet, and freezing rain. See that forecast on the www.weathertalk.com website (behind the Daily Weather Summary tab)
Forecast analysis
Forecasters are going to be busy this week. We have several storm systems that promise to bring strong winds and precipitation. Perhaps all forms of precipitation.
I would encourage everyone to closely monitor updated forecasts. Changeable forecasts are likely.
Sunday night and Monday
Confidence: High
Other than some clouds, the Sunday night and Monday forecast will be fairly calm. It will continue to be cold. Low temperatures on Monday morning should dip into the teens. We should avoid the single digits on Monday morning.
A warming trend begins on Monday. Winds will become southerly. The southerly winds will bring warmer air and increasing dew points. increasing moisture.
Monday night
Confidence: Medium to high
Shower chances will start to increase, on southerly winds, by Monday night. Temperatures, on Monday night, will likely rise through the night. Winds will become strong and gusty. Gusts above 30 mph are likely. Some of the models show wind gusts above 40 mph.
Check out the temperature forecast for Monday night. Rising temperatures through the night.
This first image is for 6 pm. Watch what happens as we move through the night.
This map is for six hours later. This is the temperature map for 12 am on Tuesday
This next map is for 6 am on Tuesday. Notice what is happening? It is warming through the night.
Showers are likely on Monday night into Tuesday.
Future-cast radar for Monday night and Tuesday.
This first image is for the 9 pm hour on Monday. Some scattered showers possible in the region. Most of the area should be above freezing when the precipitation arrives.
There is a brief window for sleet and/or light freezing rain at the beginning of the precipitation. This would quickly change to all rain as we move through the night.
Keep in mind, sometimes it can take surfaces a bit longer to warm.
This next map is for 12 am on Tuesday
This next map is for 6 am on Monday. Green represents showers. Light showers.
This next map is for Tuesday at 12 pm
This next map is for 6 pm on Tuesday. The NAM guidance diminishes precipitation during the evening hours on Tuesday.
Rainfall totals on Monday night and Tuesday should be fairly light. Perhaps on the 0.05″ to 0.20″ range
A few thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region in a general thunderstorm risk. What does that mean? It means a few sub-severe storms are possible. If we end up with more CAPE (energy for storms) than anticipated then the threat for severe thunderstorms will need to be monitored.
I will be monitoring the severe weather threat. For now, a few storms could produce lightning and gusty winds. Widespread severe weather is currently not anticipated for Tuesday.
Wind fields on Tuesday will be very strong aloft. The low-level jet could top 70 mph. Those are some fast winds right off the surface. The low level jet is about 5000′ aloft. When you have strong wind fields you want to monitor the thunderstorm potential.
Thunderstorms can occasionally tap into these low level winds. Hopefully we won’t have much CAPE on Tuesday.
Monitor updates, as always.
Here is the official SPC outlook for Tuesday. Again, light green means lightning is possible. If an upgrade is required then they would issue that on Monday or during the Monday night update.
Tuesday night into Thursday
Confidence: Medium
On and off rain chances will be with us through Thursday (actually into the weekend).
Monitor updates. Heavy rain will also be a concern. Dew points will rise into the 60’s on Wednesday night and Thursday. This is a signal for possible thunderstorms and plenty of moisture for locally heavy rain.
The weather becomes complicated from Thursday onward. A sharp boundary will spread into our region. Temperatures will be in the 30’s north of the front. Temperatures will be in the 60’s south of the front. Large spread of temperatures. This spells trouble.
Here is the 12 am dew points for Wednesday night/Thursday morning
Check out the temperature forecast for Friday morning
Thursday night through Sunday
Winter storm potential for portions of the region
Confidence: Low
I have updated the winter weather outlook. I go into great detail about what the model guidance is showing. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain in the charts. The question will be placement.
Winter weather outlooks will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. These are updated at least twice each week.
To register and receive the winter weather outlooks, please visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three. The text options are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com page.
Find me on Twitter
How much rain is expected over the coming days?
Monday night through Tuesday night you can expect 0.05″ to 0.30″
North view and south view
Click to enlarge
South view
Heavier totals are likely as we push into Tuesday night through Friday. Several inches of rain could occur. Monitor updates as we move forward.
Click to enlarge
South view
Let’s zoom out to see a regional view of the rain forecast for the next seven days
That is a lot of rain. Rivers will be on the rise.
High and Low-Temperature Outlook
Monday morning low temperatures.
Monday afternoon high temperatures
Temperatures might be a few degrees warmer than the NAM is showing.
Here are the GFS high temperatures for Monday (they are a bit warmer than the NAM)
Tuesday morning low temperatures.
Tuesday afternoon high temperatures
The GFS is warmer on Tuesday than the NAM
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Sunday night through Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday the Tuesday night: Lightning possible. Monitor updated forecasts.
Wednesday through Wednesday night: I can’t rule out storms on Wednesday night. Monitor updates.
Thursday and Thursday night: Monitor updates. Storms are possible.
Friday into Saturday: Monitor updates.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I have a feeling there will be changeable forecasts over the coming seven day period. Monitor updates.
Gusty winds are possible late Monday night into Tuesday. Gusty winds may remain with us into Thursday. Wind gusts could top 40 mph.
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our region’s weather patterns.
I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geosciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes the following:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
I am the owner and operator of Weather Talk (in partnership with The Fire Horn)
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple…
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
