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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
January 7th through January 13th
Current risk: Severe weather is possible from Thursday afternoon into Friday night. See the graphics below. Also, see the daily video for more details.
There are two time frames of concern.
The first time frame will be from late Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning.
The second time frame of concern will be late Friday afternoon into Friday night.
This is a conditional risk.
What does conditional mean? This means some ingredients may be missing. The primary lacking ingredient is CAPE.
What is CAPE?
CAPE is instability. Energy. Thunderstorms tap into CAPE for energy. Without CAPE, there won’t be a severe weather threat. However, if we have a bit of CAPE, the risk of severe weather will increase.
Make sure you have several ways of receiving your severe weather alerts.
Don’t forget to sign up for Weather Call, as well.
This does not replace your Beau Dodson Weather App. It is an additional tool to receive warnings.
This is especially useful when you are sleeping. A phone call will wake you up if you are inside the tornado or severe thunderstorm warning box.
🚨 I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service is here.
Click here www.tornadocall.com
YouTube Video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ve2UY2mAkEI
What the tornado warning sounds like
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXBc03tW_N0
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A few of the thunderstorms from Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning could be intense. The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts and a short-lived tornado.
A second time-frame of concern will be late Friday afternoon into Friday night. Two different systems will impact the region.
The concern on Friday afternoon and night will be a few reports of wind damage. A low-end tornado risk. See the graphics below.
Current confidence level: Medium confidence.
Comments: Monitor updates.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Isolated lightning is possible on Thursday and Friday.
2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSIBLE I am monitoring Thursday and Friday.
The peak chances for intense storms will be Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning. The concern would be a few reports of high wind gusts. There will be a lot of spin in the atmosphere. A short-lived tornado can’t be ruled out.
There remain questions about surface-based instability. If instability is lower, then we won’t have severe weather.
This will need to be monitored closely.
Here is the Thursday severe weather outlook. The dark green zone is a level one (marginal) risk of severe weather.
The light green indicates where storms are possible, but are unlikely to be severe.
This outlook will be updated several times between now and Thursday afternoon and night. Thus, monitor updates.
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I am watching late Friday afternoon and Friday night, as well. The risk on Friday will mainly extend from the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky and Tennessee. Perhaps extreme southern Illinois.
Here is the Friday severe weather outlook. The dark green is the level one (marginal) risk. The yellow zone is the level two (slight) risk.
The concern will mainly be from Friday afternoon into Friday night (see the daily video).
This graphic will be updated several times between now and Friday afternoon. Monitor updated forecasts and graphics.
I will also send updates to the Beau Dodson Weather App.
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4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees? NO.
6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees? NO.
Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
I am not overly concerned, but I am closely monitoring the latest guidance.
If concerns increase, then we will bump this up to the turquoise color.
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Here is the extended concern meter.
I am watching for the risk of lightning from Thursday into Friday.
I am monitoring the risk of severe weather late Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning. Then, I am monitoring Friday afternoon and night.
Again, the primary concern would be a few storms producing strong wind gusts. The tornado risk is low, but it is not zero. A short-lived tornado can’t be ruled out.
Monitor updates.
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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Here is your bus stop forecast
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This afternoon
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Forecast discussion
- A nice day ahead of us. A few degrees cooler than yesterday.
- Mild temperatures on Thursday and Friday. That will occur ahead of a cold front.
- Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast on Thursday. The rain chances will linger into Friday night. Perhaps into Saturday morning over Kentucky/Tennessee.
- I can’t rule out severe weather, but there are still questions about instability. Stay weather-aware.
- Cooler temperatures will arrive on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
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What is the primary weather concern?
Some patchy fog this morning. Use care.
The primary weather concern will be showers and thunderstorms from Thursday into Friday.
I made some adjustments to the rain probabilities and timing. See those graphics below.
The bulk of the rain will occur late Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Then, another round on Friday afternoon and night. See the daily video for more details.
Rain totals will vary across the region. Here is the latest rainfall graphic.
This covers tonight through Saturday.
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Here were the 6 AM temperatures.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
See the video or graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
There will be a couple of rounds of precipitation.
Please see the rain probability graphics below. Those go into more details on the timing and rain chances.
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Today and tonight
There are no significant weather concerns through tonight.
We do have some patchy fog this morning. Use care.
It is a bit cooler today vs 24 hours ago.
Speaking of 24 hours ago!
Check out these Tuesday afternoon temperatures. Wow. Some areas hit 70 degrees!
The good news is that temperatures will be mild through Friday.
Let’s take a look at that.
Today’s high temperatures
Today’s temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday’s.
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Thursday through Sunday
Thursday will be mild. Friday, as well.
These warm temperatures will precede a strong cold front arriving tomorrow and on Friday.
There will actually be two systems moving through the region.
Thursday’s highs
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Friday’s highs
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It will turn cooler by Saturday and Sunday.
Saturday’s high temperatures
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Sunday’s high temperatures
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A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms back to the region tomorrow into Friday night. A few showers could linger into early Saturday.
There have been some adjustments in the rain probabilities.
The bulk of the system will hold off until late Thursday afternoon and night. Perhaps a few showers earlier in the day over mainly southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
A second system arrives on Friday afternoon and Friday night.
Severe weather concerns?
There is a conditional risk of severe weather from Thursday afternoon into Friday night.
Wind shear will be extremely high, as is usually the case during the winter months.
I would be very concerned about this event if we had more CAPE to work with.
Wind shear is an increase in wind speed with height. Wind shear is the turning of the wind direction with height.
Wind shear is one ingredient for thunderstorms to become severe.
The amount of wind shear is concerning. With that said, it is just one ingredient in severe weather.
Dew points will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. That is a sufficient amount of moisture for severe weather. Typically, during January, I look for dew points ranging from 58 to 62+.
Dew point is a measure of moisture.
As mentioned above, I would be very concerned about this event if we had more CAPE to work with. I am closely monitoring this aspect of the forecast.
The lacking ingredient for a severe weather outbreak is CAPE. That is typically the case during January. High wind shear and little CAPE.
CAPE is energy that thunderstorms tap into. CAPE is what fuels severe weather.
Without CAPE, there won’t be severe thunderstorms.
I am monitoring trends in the guidance. If CAPE ends up a bit higher, then we will need to be concerned about a few thunderstorms becoming severe. The threat will be damaging wind and short-lived quick spin-up tornadoes.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the area in a low-level (marginal) risk on Thursday and Thursday night.
The concern will mainly be late Thursday afternoon and night. Perhaps into early early Friday morning.
The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts. The overall risk remains low.
It is possible that the SPC adds a level two risk somewhere in the region, but confidence in that is low. Thus, monitor updates.
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Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook for Friday.
The level one (marginal) risk covers portions of the region. That is the dark green zone.
I am sure there will be additional adjustments to this.
The primary concern will be early Friday morning with the first system. Then, the second system arrives late in the day into Friday night. See the video for details.
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Let’s look at the rain probabilities.
What is the % chance of rain?
Wednesday night
Chances have decreased on Wednesday night. The system has slowed.
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Thursday
Notice how the chances are a bit higher over Missouri and Illinois.
Much of the day may end up dry across a chunk of the region. As we move deeper into Thursday afternoon, the rain chances will increase. Especially over Missouri and Illinois.
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Thursday night
Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms.
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Friday
Notice on Friday how the chances are a bit higher over Kentucky/Tennessee. That is because the second system will track a bit farther south.
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Friday night
Saturday
A few showers may linger into Saturday morning.
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It will turn colder on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Nothing extreme, but definitely colder.
I can’t rule out a flurry on Saturday night.
Sunday and Monday will be cool. No weather concerns.
No significant winter storms in the forecast. A few cold shots are likely mid to late month. Whether they have precipitation with them is uncertain.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange is locally heavy rain. Blue is snow.
Hrrr model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Blue is snow.
NAM 3K model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Blue is snow.
GFS model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
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Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.
Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)
🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.
Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.
Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.
Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.
Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson
Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live. I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Roof damage from recent storms? Link – Click here
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⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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