Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
If you have not subscribed to my YouTube Channel then click on this link and it will take you to my videos.
Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.
48-hour forecast
.
.
Sunday to Sunday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. A few lightning strikes are possible Monday night and Tuesday over mainly the MO Bootheel, KY, and TN.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Possible. A light dusting is possible Tuesday night over mainly MO and IL.
I am watching another system late Thursday night into Saturday. Centered on Friday. Too soon to know the rain/snow line.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? Possible. I am watching a system Thursday night into Saturday. Centered on Friday. It is too soon to know if freezing rain will be a concern.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
.
Fire weather risk level.
Sunday: 3. Very low risk.
Sunday night: 4. Low risk.
Monday: 4. Low risk.
Monday night: 2. Very low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Active weather continues for the week ahead. Areas of drizzle continue through sunrise. Afterwards, dry conditions are expected for the remainder of today and Monday morning. A strong storm system will bring 1-1.5 inches of rain with localized higher amounts late Monday through Tuesday. Breezy winds are expected with wind gusts to around 40 mph possible Tuesday as well. Some mixing of light snow is possible Tuesday night with minimal accumulation on grassy surfaces. Models vary on a late week system that is most likely to arrive Friday resulting in rain with some mixing of snow.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
.
.
Sunday, January 07, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of drizzle.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before noon
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 43° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: West 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:53 PM .
.
Sunday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 25° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 25° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 25° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 25° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 25° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 25° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 25° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 25° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 25° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 25° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast increasing to 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 28°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:21 AM
Moonset: 1:16 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
.
Monday, January 08, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain. Mainly during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after 12 PM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast increasing to 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the forecast updates and the Beau Dodson Live Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM .
.
Monday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 100%
Southeast Missouri ~ 100%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 100%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: East soutehast 15 to 35 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Yes. Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 4:30 AM
Moonset: 2:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
.
Tuesday, January 09, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Cloudy with showers likely the first half of the day. A thunderstorm possible. Rain tapering off west to east during the morning and early afternoon hours. The bulk of the rain will fall Monday night. Keep that in mind.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. The bulk of the rain will fall Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 45° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming west southwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Yes. Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:55 PM .
.
Tuesday Night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain ending. Rain may end as a brief period of snow. Falling temperatures. Watching for black ice as any remaining water puddles could freeze. Hopefully, the wind will dry most surfaces.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (ending)
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 12 am.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 23° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 23° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 23° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 28° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 26° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction: West 15 to 35 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Watch for black ice.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars and road conditions.
Moonrise: 5:39 AM
Moonset: 2:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
.
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Breezy. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 15 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:55 PM .
.
Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 30°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 26° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 26° to 30°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 26° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~ 26° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 26° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 26° to 30°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 26° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:39 AM
Moonset: 2:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
-
- Active weather pattern with several systems to track.
- Widespread rain and gusty winds arrive Monday into Tuesday.
- Rain may end briefly as snow Tuesday night. Watch for black ice.
- Low end rain snow chances Thursday night.
- Another system with rain and/or snow arrives Friday into Saturday,
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Forecast Discussion
Rain rain rain! More rain is on the way.
A major winter storm will take shape today over Colorado into Kansas. Widespread heavy wind driven snow. This is now officially a blizzard. We thought that might be a possibility.
Blizzard warnings in red. Additional blizzard warnings can’t be ruled out.
Winter storm watches in blue. Just to our north northwest.
Those will be upgraded to pink. Winter storm warnings in future updates.
We started talking about this storm a month ago!
Of course, back then we weren’t sure whether we would end up with rain or snow. With each passing day, over the past week, we started thinking more and more that this would be a rain event in our local area. A heavy snow event for portions of Kansas into Missouri into Illinois. To the northwest of my forecast counties.
Confidence continues to increase in the final forecast. This is mostly a rain event for our local area.
Widespread rain will arrive Monday afternoon and evening. The rain will spread from west southwest towards the east northeast.
Moderate to heavy rain will be possible. I continue to forecast a chance of lightning across the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
Thankfully, the tornado threat will remain to our south.
The SPC has a risk of severe weather outlined well to our south. This is for tomorrow.
Let’s look at rainfall totals. I am forecasting a widespread 0.75 to 1.50″. Pockets of higher totals possible.
Here is the official NOAA rainfall forecast. Double click images to enlarge them. We need this rain. We are in drought.
As mentioned during the past week, the track of the low is always key to where snow and rain fall.
If you want snow, then you want the low to track to your south southeast.
Where will Monday’s low travel?
Towards St Louis. What does that mean for us? Rain!
What is the probability of 3 or more inches of snow?
What is the probability of 12 or more inches of snow?
Heavy wet snow. Heat attack snow is what we call these. Shoveling will be difficult.
This will lay down a decent snow pack from Kansas into Illinois. That could impact the system later this week.
Another big winter storm is likely Friday into Saturday of this coming week. For now, it is just too soon to talk about the rain snow line.
Models show a wide range of ideas.
For example, the Canadian shows a system very much like the one we will experience tomorrow and Tuesday.
Low tracks north of us. Rain rain rain. Thunderstorms. If the Canadian model is correct.
The GFS model, on the other hand, shows a major winter storm for portions of our region.
I will know more by Tuesday. Let’s get through system one, first.
One thing seems likely. Much colder air will arrive this coming weekend.
Check out Friday’s temperatures. That is a lot of cold air to our west. Thus, it will turn colder by the weekend. It will feel a bit more like January.
Areas with a heavy snow pack will go below zero.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
.
Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
.
Tornado Probability Outlook
.
Large Hail Probability Outlook
.
High wind Probability Outlook
.
Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
.
Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
.
.
The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
.
.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
_______________________________________
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
.
What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
.
This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
.
This animation is the GFS Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
..
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
.
Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
.
.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.
.
