Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

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-> NOTE  Temperatures will vary GREATLY this week based on snow and ice cover.  Areas with snow and ice cover could be 10 degrees colder than shown here. See the daily hand written forecast farther down in this update for your location.

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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

A look at the weekend snow system

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48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Monday Forecast:
Mostly cloudy.  A chance of  mainly morning freezing drizzle and snow showers.  The bulk of the precipitation will be across southern Illinois and western Kentucky.  Where it snows, there could be some light accumulation.  Breezy and cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous over southern IL and portions of western KY this morning.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before noon.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 23° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 26° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold.  Wind could bring down additional power lines and tree limbs in the ice storm zone.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B in the winter storm zone portion of the region.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:110 AM
Sunset: 4:53 PM
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Monday Night Forecast:   Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 14°
Southeast Missouri ~ 14° to 18°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 8° to 12°
Southern Illinois ~ 10° to 15°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 14° to 16°
Far western Kentucky ~ 14° to 18°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 18° to 20°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 14° to 18°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20° to 22°
Winds will be from this direction:  North 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold.  Icy roads in the winter storm zone.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but use caution in the winter storm zone.
Moonrise: 11:17 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon:  First Quarter

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Tuesday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 26° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~28° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction:  North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 15° during the morning.  Then, 15 to 25 during the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold.  Icy roads in the winter storm zone.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but use caution in the winter storm zone.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 5° to 10°
Southeast Missouri ~ 10° to 15°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 18° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 2° to 5°
Southern Illinois ~ 4° to 6°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 5° to 10°
Far western Kentucky ~ 10° to 15°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 14° to 16°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 8° to 12°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 14° to 18°
Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold.  Icy roads in the winter storm zone.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but use caution in the winter storm zone.
Moonrise: 11:45 AM
Moonset: 12:30 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Wednesday Forecast:  Mostly sunny during the morning.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 26° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 25° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~25° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction:   Northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 10° during the morning.  20 to 30 during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold.  Icy roads in the winter storm zone.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but use caution in the winter storm zone.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:55 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 2° to 5°
Southeast Missouri ~ 8° to 12°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 14° to 18°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ -2° to 5°
Southern Illinois ~ 5° to 10°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 6° to 8°
Far western Kentucky ~ 10° to 12°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 12° to 14°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 8° to 12°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 12° to 15°
Winds will be from this direction:  Variable wind direction at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 10° during the morning.  10 to 20 during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold.  Icy roads in the winter storm zone.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but use caution in the winter storm zone.
Moonrise: 12:15  PM
Moonset: 1:42 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Thursday  Forecast:  Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 26° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~28° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction:  Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15° during the morning.  15 to 25 during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold.  Icy roads in the winter storm zone.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but use caution in the winter storm zone.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:56 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 16° to 18°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 8° to 10°
Southern Illinois ~ 10° to 14°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 14° to 18°
Far western Kentucky ~ 18° to 20°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 18° to 20°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10° to 15°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 18° to 20°
Winds will be from this direction:  South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold.  Icy roads in the winter storm zone.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but use caution in the winter storm zone.
Moonrise: 12:52  PM
Moonset: 2:56 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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We have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. 1.   A cold to bitterly cold week ahead.  Temperatures in the snow and ice pack zone will vary greatly.  Some reporting stations will be at least 10  degrees colder than areas without snow and ice.  Some locations across my northern zone will dip to zero or below.
   2.   Cold wind chill temperatures.  Some nights will dip below zero.
   3.   Icy roads will continue to be an issue in the hardest hit areas.
   4.   Power outages are a concern today with gusty winds.  Power lines and tree limbs will continue to fall.
   5.   I am watching a snowstorm late in the week.  Confidence in the track remains low.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

A major snow and ice storm impacted a large portion of the region.  Southern counties had little or no impacts.  Central and northern counties had significant impacts.

Widespread power outages are reported in the ice storm zone where 0.10″ to 0.50″ of freezing rain fell.  Locally higher amounts.  This was enough to bring down power lines and tree branches.  Even some trees.

Tens of thousands of people are without power.

Many schools are closed.

Roads are ice covered in many areas.  Black ice is an issue for some areas.

A cold week ahead of us.  Areas without power will suffer greatly.

We do have snow on the radar this morning over southern Illinois and western Kentucky.  That snow will move off to the east later this morning.  Leaving us dry and cold.

See the live radar links to track the snow

The live city view radars have a winterize button.  Click that to see precip type and lighter returns.

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

There could be some light snow accumulation (where snow occurs).  This could coat roadways with snow.  It is cold this morning, so what falls will stick.

This is what radar looked like at 7:30 AM.  The snow os moving south southeast.

Temperatures will VARY greatly over the coming days and nights.

Areas with heavy snow and ice pack will go below zero on some nights.  Other locations will dip into the teens.

Highs will vary greatly, as well.

Most of the area will remain below freezing most of the week.

Even areas without snow cover will be cold to bitterly cold.

Wind will make it worse with wind chill values below zero, at times.  Brrr.

Check out some of these wind chill values on the GFS model.  It might bit a bit overdone, but you get the idea.  Bundle up.

This morning

Double click images to enlarge them

Tuesday morning

Wednesday morning

Thursday morning.  Double-brrrr

Friday morning

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Untreated roads won’t improve much over the coming days.  Especially with the cold temperatures.

The good news is that it should remain dry tonight through Thursday.

Use care with downed trees and power lines in some areas.  Be careful on the black ice.

Those without power may need to seek shelter elsewhere.  Especially on the coldest nights.

I am monitoring a potential winter storm later this week.

Confidence in the track of the low pressure center is low.

A lot of data takes it southeast of us.  If it is too far southeast, then we will only receive flurries or light snow.  If it tracks slightly north northwest, then we could have a decent amount of snow in some areas.  Especially southern counties (Bootheel into NW TN and along the KY/TN state line).

It is too soon to know the track.  I am monitoring trends.

The model ensembles are  way south and tightly clustered.  The tight clustering adds some confidence to the eventual track.

I will say the tight clustering along the Gulf of Mexico is so far south that it raises questions as to how much snow would fall this far north.

Here is the EC ensemble.  See the L down along the Gulf of Mexico.  If you want snow in our area, then you need that low to be farther north.

Here is the GEFS ensembles.  Again, the low is way south.  Near the coast of Mississippi.  Let’s watch trends over the coming days.

Most models do bring some snow into our region.  Mostly light.

Here are some of the different models.  This is for Friday.

Some are a bit heavier than others.

EC model.  Light event.

GFS model. Mostly a light event.

Canadian model. Light event.

UKMET.  Mostly a light event.  Perhaps a bit heavier in west Tennessee.

Taking at face value, that would be a dusting to three inches of snow.  Higher totals south vs north.  It is a southern storm.

For us to receive heavy snow, we would need the low to track into central MS and AL.  I will be watching it closely.

Let me show you some of the probability charts

What is the probability of four inches of snow or more in a 24 hour period.  This would be for Friday.

GEFS modelt

What is the chance of four or more inches of snow in 24 hours.  The EC model.

What are the chances of four or more inches of snow on the Canadian model?

As you can see the models nip us.  Mostly south.

Let’s look at the winter storm impact graphics.

What is the chance of at least minor impacts?

Moderate impacts?

I will be watching trends in the guidance over the next few days.

Today, it is still just too far out for confidence.  Remember, we need to get within 72 hours for an accurate forecast.

I will know a lot more tomorrow and Wednesday, of course.

One thing appears near certain, it will be cold enough for a snow event.  This does not look like a wintry mix.  It looks like snow.

Temperatures aloft will be cold.  Unlike our last event when temperatures aloft was warm and melted snowflakes.  Turning them into sleet and freezing rain.

Temperatures this weekend will depend on the strength of the southern winter storm.

We should moderate a little bit into the 30s.  Some areas that won’t be above freezing this week will finally go above freezing.

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

The Hrrr model

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

I posted these above

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Here is the NAM model.

I posted these above

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Let’s look farther out.  The Monday and Wednesday systems.

GFS model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

Red is freezing rain.  Purple is sleet. Blue is snow.  Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.

I posted these above

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EC model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.
Red is freezing rain.  Purple is sleet. Blue is snow.  Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.

I posted these above

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Canadian model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

Red is freezing rain.  Purple is sleet. Blue is snow.  Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.

I posted these above

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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