January 6, 2022. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.

7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

Log into www.weathertalk.com and then click the payment button. Your account will show yellow at the bottom if your account has expired.

If snow ratio’s are higher than expected then these numbers will be slightly too low. I am forecasting 15:1 snow ratios.

We typically use 10:1 snow ratios. Meaning 1″ of liquid equals 10 inches of snow.

Ratios with this system may be closer to 15:1. If I have the ratios wrong then add a bit more snow accumulation.

My severe weather outlook will vary from location to location.

Remember, I forecast for Mt Vernon, Illinois, south into northwest Tennessee.

.
48-hour forecast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

Thursday to Thursday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Possible Saturday/Saturday night along a cold front.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Thursday into Friday. Sunday night/Monday morning, as well.

5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Yes. Thursday.

6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

January 6, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Snow.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 100% / West KY ~ 100% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: More likely after 7 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 25° / SE MO 20° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 18° to 22° / South IL 18° to 22° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 24° to 26°
Winds will be from the: North 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slick roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:53 PM
.

Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Bitterly cold. Wind chill values of -10 to 10 above.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated/ending
Timing of the rain: Before 6 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 8° to 12° / SE MO 5° to 10° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 5° to 10° / South IL 6° to 12° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 8° to 12° / West KY 8° to 12° / NW TN 10° to 14°
Winds will be from the: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slick road conditions. Bitterly cold. Frost bite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 10:22 AM
Moonset: 9:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

January 7, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 30° / SE MO 24° to 28° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 23° to 26° / South IL 24° to 28° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° / West KY 24° to 28° / NW TN 24° to 30°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways. Frost bite.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B the first half of the day.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM
.

Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 16° to 18° / SE MO 14° to 18° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 14° to 18° / South IL 14° to 18° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 14° to 18° / West KY 14° to 18° / NW TN 15° to 20°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 10°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:51 AM
Moonset: 10:36 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

January 8, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 11 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° / SE MO 43° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 43° to 46° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 40° to 44° / NW TN 42° to 45°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM
.

Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° / SE MO 40° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 35° to 40° / South IL 35° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° / West KY 40° to 44° / NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B for outdoor events.
Moonrise: 10:51 AM
Moonset: 10:36 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

January 9, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of mainly morning showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 2 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 52° / SE MO 38° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 44° / South IL 42° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Winds will be from the: North 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:56 PM
.

Sunday night Forecast: Clearing. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 18° to 22° / SE MO 15° to 20° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 15° to 20° / South IL 18° to 20° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 16° to 20° / West KY 18° to 20° / NW TN 18° to 20°
Winds will be from the: North 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:42 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Today through January 10th: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
.

72-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Weather Discussion

1. Snow today.
2. Bitterly cold tonight.
3. Showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

WINTER WEATHER RADARS

Use the local city-view radars to see precipitation type. Hit the winterize button above them (just the local city-view ones)

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Our snow event is underway.

Snow is spreading across the area. There are numerous reports of snow as of 6 am. It won’t take long for the snow to stick. Roads and surfaces are plenty cold.

Untreated roads will have issues today. Use care on bridges and overpasses.

We talked about a heavier band of snow across portions of Kentucky and Tennessee. The overnight data indicates that is the correct idea. Thus, we bumped up snow totals in those areas.

Widespread bitterly cold air arrives tonight and tomorrow.

Expect lows tonight in the 5 to 10 above range across most of the area. Wind chill values of -10 to 10 above. Brrr. Bundle up to prevent frostbite.

Winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings are in effect area-wide. Pink zone is where heavier snow totals are expected.

6 AM radar shows the snow moving into the region.

Winter weather notes.

The snow will wind down this afternoon. Ending west to east.

Friday will be dry and cold.

Showers and thunderstorms develop Saturday into Sunday. Peak rain chances will be Saturday night into Sunday morning. A widespread 0.50″ to 1.00″ of rain is anticipated.

No severe thunderstorms, thankfully.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.