January 5, 2022. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

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If snow ratio’s are higher than expected then these numbers will be slightly too low. I am forecasting 15:1 snow ratios.

We typically use 10:1 snow ratios. Meaning 1″ of liquid equals 10 inches of snow.

Ratios with this system may be closer to 15:1. If I have the ratios wrong then add a bit more snow accumulation.

Dry air aloft may cut into snow totals. Typically, dry air causes snow to evaporate before reaching the ground. This can mean less snow than the model guidance indicates.

That is one element that I am watching with this event.

My severe weather outlook will vary from location to location.

Remember, I forecast for Mt Vernon, Illinois, south into northwest Tennessee.

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48-hour forecast

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Wednesday to Wednesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Possible Saturday/Saturday night along a cold front.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Wednesday night into Friday. Sunday night/Monday morning, as well.

5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Possible. Thursday.

6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

January 5, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° / SE MO 35° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° / South IL 40° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° / West KY 42° to 45° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: West 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:52 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 24° / SE MO 15° to 20° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 15° to 20° / South IL 18° to 22° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 18° to 22° / West KY 20° to 24° / NW TN 22° to 24°
Winds will be from the: North 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:49 AM
Moonset: 8:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

January 6, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of snow. Some light accumulation possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: More likely after 9 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 25° / SE MO 20° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 18° to 22° / South IL 18° to 22° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 24° to 26°
Winds will be from the: North 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slick roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:53 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of snow showers. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated/ending
Timing of the rain: Mostly during the evening.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 8° to 12° / SE MO 5° to 10° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 5° to 10° / South IL 6° to 12° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 8° to 12° / West KY 8° to 12° / NW TN 10° to 14°
Winds will be from the: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slick road conditions if snow develops. Bitterly cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 10:22 AM
Moonset: 9:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

January 7, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 30° / SE MO 24° to 28° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 23° to 26° / South IL 24° to 28° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° / West KY 24° to 28° / NW TN 24° to 30°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 16° to 18° / SE MO 14° to 18° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 14° to 18° / South IL 14° to 18° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 14° to 18° / West KY 14° to 18° / NW TN 15° to 20°
Winds will be from the: Southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 10°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:51 AM
Moonset: 10:36 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

January 8, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 11 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 45° to 50°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° / SE MO 40° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 35° to 40° / South IL 35° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° / West KY 40° to 44° / NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 10:51 AM
Moonset: 10:36 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

January 9, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of mainly morning showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 2 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° / SE MO 53° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 50° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 53° to 56°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:56 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Clearing. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 18° to 22° / SE MO 15° to 20° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 15° to 20° / South IL 18° to 20° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 16° to 20° / West KY 18° to 20° / NW TN 18° to 20°
Winds will be from the: North 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:42 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

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Today through January 10th: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Cool and dry weather today.
2. Snow chances Thursday.
3. Monitoring rain/storm chances over the weekend.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

I continue to track two precipitation events. One arrives Thursday and the other arrives this weekend.

Snow is expected to develop Thursday morning. That snow will quickly push off to the east by Thursday afternoon and evening.

This is a quick moving system, but should be able to produce a swath of accumulating snow.

Odds favor a dusting to an inch or so across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Totals should be higher over western Kentucky and perhaps portions of western Tennessee. I am forecasting one to four inches of snow in those areas.

This should be a dry snow. It is going to be cold Thursday and Thursday night. Typically, wet snow occurs with temperatures in the 28 to 34 degree-range.

Temperatures Thursday will be in the teens and twenties.

Snow ratios will be higher than usual. Typically, we use a 10:1 snow ratio. That means one inch of melted snow equals ten inches of snow. Melt that down and you have one inch of liquid.

This event will likely produce at least 15:1 snow ratios. A fluffy dry snow. There are questions about the exact snow ratio number. This can mess with the snow totals forecast. If we are wrong about the snow ratios then we would experience higher snow totals.

For example, if we ended up with 20:1 snow ratios then a one to three inch snow would turn into a two to four inch snow.

For now, I have snow ratios at 15:1.

Please focus on impacts and not totals. The impact will be icy road conditions. This is especially true of side-roads/untreated roads. Use caution.

Roads will be cold. Snow will stick to surfaces (esp untreated surfaces).

There is also a lot of dry air aloft for the snow to overcome. This will cause some of the snow to sublimate (evaporate) before reaching the ground. Dry air can make the forecast difficult. What could have been a two to four inch snow event can easily turn into a dusting to an inch or two (when dealing with dry air aloft).

How long it takes the dry air to moisten up is one question about this snow event.

For now, odds favor light accumulations. Continue to monitor updates moving forward.

Let me show you the GEFS model guidance. This is an ensemble forecast.

What are the odds of an inch or more of snow?

Notice how the numbers are higher over our southeastern counties. That has been a theme in the models.

What are the odds of three inches of snow?

What are the odds of six inches of snow?

The official WPC/NOAA snow forecast paints a dusting to an inch or two across our region.

Liquid totals (melted).

Frozen totals (snow)

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The Paducah, Kentucky NWS Office has issued this forecast.

Most forecasters have the same forecast for this event. Again, we would prefer you focus on impacts and not exact totals. The end result is the same. Some icy road conditions.

One thing that is certain is that bitterly cold air will push back into the region Wednesday night into Friday. As a matter of fact, the coldest night of the winter (thus far) will arrive Thursday night. Lows in the single digits are possible in some counties. Elsewhere, widespread 10 to 15 degree readings are anticipated.

If we have snow on the ground, then temperatures will be a few degrees colder. Either way, it is going to be quite chilly Thursday into Friday.

Friday morning lows

Double click on the image to enlarge it. Western sections of the area.

The rest of the area.

Our next weather maker will be showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday. Peak chances will be Saturday night.

Rain totals of 0.5″ to 1.00″ are anticipated.

The good news is that we are not forecasting severe thunderstorms.

Rain totals from the weekend event.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.