12:30 PM video update Thursday
10:15 AM Thursday Video Update
On and off snow showers will continue into this afternoon. Perhaps another dusting to an inch in spots.
I am monitoring activity moving in from Missouri. This is the 2nd round that I have been talking about.
Radar Link
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Hazardous roads are being reported in many areas. It only takes a little bit of snow to caused problems. Thus, impact is more important than amounts.
Use care, as always.
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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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Here is the link to the winter weather updates – Daily Weather Summary tab
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Wednesday morning video update
The winter weather outlook is free today. I know many of you are wondering about snow. I encourage you to sign up for the winter weather forecasts on the www.weathertalk.com website.
This is a complex forecast to put in words. I put together a video forecast to help you better understand the dynamics of the system. Some of the models are showing CAPE on Thursday. This is interesting. It might mean a little convective development. Low confidence on that happening, but it is showing up in the models.
9 PM video New update.
3 PM video
Here is the video cast
January 4, 2017
Wednesday Night: Becoming cloudy. Light snow developing over northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. That would include areas like Farmington, Missouri eastward towards Franklin County, Illinois and east into southwest Indiana. A dusting to an inch or so of snow possible by morning. South of there a chance for light snow late tonight.
What impact is expected? No issues southern half of the region. Chance of light snow northern half of the area. Roads will be cold. If snow does fall it would stick.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 16 to 22 degree range.
Wind Chill: 10-15 degrees
Winds: North at 6~12 mph. Gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% (north half) IL ~ 60% Carbondale to Marion, Illinois northward. 30% south of there % KY ~ 30% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Snow showers and snow developing late over our northern counties.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Yes. Flurries and snow showers possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Sunset will be at 4:51 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 1:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:04 p.m. Waning Crescent
January 5, 2017
Thursday: Cloudy. Snow or snow showers likely. Some accumulation possible. See the video update for the probabilities. Cold temperatures. Slick roads where snow develops.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle 20’s northern counties to upper 20’s and lower 30’s elsewhere. Northern counties would include Perry County, Missouri towards Carmi, Illinois.
Wind Chill: 14-25
Winds: Northwest and north at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% north half of southeast Missouri and 60% south half IL ~ 80% north of Marion, Illinois and 60% chance south of Marion, Illinois KY ~ 60% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Periods of light snow. Perhaps widespread.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Snow and/or snow showers/flurries possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B for the northern half of the region. It might snow.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:52 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 11:44 a.m. and moonset will be at -:– First quarter
Thursday Night: Cloudy early with a few flurries. Clearing late. Bitterly cold.
What impact is expected? Wind chill values of 5 above to 15 above. Frost bite weather. Will monitor the snow chances.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 8 to 12 degrees where snow blankets the ground, otherwise 12 to 16 degree range.
Wind Chill: -5 to 12 degrees
Winds: North at 6~12 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps some evening flurries or snow showers.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Some snow flurries or snow showers possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Snow showers and bitterly cold air. Have a plan B.
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January 6, 2017
Friday: Partly sunny. Cold.
What impact is expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 22 to 26 degree range
Wind Chill: 10 to 20 degrees
Winds: North at 6-12 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:53 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 12:20 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:31 Waxing Gibbous
Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Bitterly cold.
What impact is expected? Monitor updated forecasts as a southern storm system may develop near our region.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 10-15 degrees (colder if you have snow on the ground)
Wind Chill: 5 to 14 degrees
Winds: North at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none, but monitor updates (especially our southern counties)
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
January 7, 2017
Saturday: Partly sunny. Cold.
What impact is expected? Most likely none, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 25 to 30 degree range
Wind Chill: 15 to 25 degrees
Winds: North at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none, but monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:54 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 1:00 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:38 Waxing Gibbous
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Cold.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 10 to 16 degrees (coldest where snow blankets the ground)
Wind Chill: 5 to 12 degrees
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
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January 8, 2017
Sunday: Sunny and cold.
What impact is expected? Morning temperatures and wind chills will be bitterly cold.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 28 to 34 degree range
Wind Chill: 8 to 14 degrees early in the morning.
Winds: North and northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:55 p.m.
UV Index:1-2
Moonrise will be at 1:45 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:46 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Sunday Night: Clear and cold.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Patchy fog, perhaps.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 14 to 18 degrees
Wind Chill: 10 to 18 degrees
Winds: Variable winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
More information on the UV index. Click here
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Snow flurries and light snow
- Bitterly cold
- Warmer next week
Forecast analysis
Winter outlook has been posted and updated!
Updated on Tuesday afternoon. Tracking two snow systems. One on Wednesday night/Thursday and a southern storm system for Friday/Saturday.
The winter outlook can be found on the www.weathertalk.com website. Sign into your account and click the Daily Weather Summary tab. I have posted a link and a password behind that tab.
Wednesday night through Thursday night
Confidence: Medium
A weather disturbance will push through Missouri on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Light snow will develop over portions of Kansas and Missouri tonight into Thursday morning.
The light snow will spread east and southeast into portions of Illinois and Indiana by late Wednesday night and especially on Thursday. Some accumulation possible. See the video for details.
Road surfaces will be cold. Whatever does fall would stick to untreated roadways.
Temperatures on Wednesday night will be cold. Temperatures will dip into the upper teens and lower 20’s. Wind chills will be even colder.
The cold weather will last into the weekend.
Here is the snow forecast via graphics (please see video for details. The graphics don’t tell you the whole story)
Forecast
Red zone forecast
Blue zone
Yellow zone
I am already tracking a warming trend for next week! We might experience several days of well above normal temperatures. Let’s look at that on the GFS model guidance
Check out these anomalies. How many degrees above normal will temperatures by next week and the following? Well, if we believe the GFS model it will be SEVERAL degrees above normal.
Of course, there is always the chance the model is wrong. There are several signals for at least somewhat warmer weather during this time period.
First map is for January 10th at 6 pm. Well above normal temperatures.
This next map is for January 11th at 12 am
This next map is for January 12th
This next map is for January 12th at 6 am. Wow.
This next map is for January 13th
This next map is for January 16th. The is a long period of above normal temperatures, if the GFS is correct.
That would probably mean several shower and thunderstorms systems. We can say goodbye to snow chances for awhile, IF the GFS guidance is correct.
The EC guidance agrees with the GFS (for the most part).
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. These are updated twice weekly.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three. The text options are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com page.
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
Rainfall totals on Monday evening and night will likely remain in the 0.10″ to 0.30″. Heavier totals possible in thunderstorms.
High and Low-Temperature Outlook
Thursday morning low temperatures.
Thursday afternoon high temperatures
Friday morning low temperatures.
Friday afternoon high temperatures
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday through Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
No major changes to the forecast.
Bitterly cold wind chills over the coming days. For that matter, cold temperatures, as well.
Some snow accumulation possible on Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. Especially the northern half of the region. Cold road conditions could lead to slick road conditions. Especially true for untreated roadways.
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our region’s weather patterns.
I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geosciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes the following:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
I am the owner and operator of Weather Talk (in partnership with The Fire Horn)
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple…
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
