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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Monday to Monday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching Friday into Tuesday. Models do show the potential of accumulating snow. Monitor updates moving forward. Confidence is low.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Unlikely.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? Yes. Next Saturday night into Monday. Below zero wind chills possible during the AM hours. Below ten degrees Sunday during the day. Perhaps Monday, as well.
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February 1, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° SE MO 34° to 38° South IL 35° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40° West KY 38° to 40° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 5:19 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Some clearing overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 26° SE MO 23° to 26° South IL 23° to 26° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 26° West KY 24° to 26° NW TN 24° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:46 PM
Moonset: 9:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 2, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Becoming mostly sunny. A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° SE MO 38° to 42° South IL 38° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 42° West KY 40° to 42° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 5:21 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 26° SE MO 22° to 25° South IL 22° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 25° West KY 22° to 25° NW TN 23° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:56 PM
Moonset: 10:04 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 3, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 5:23 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers developing.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 40° SE MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 35° to 40° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radar.
Moonrise: 6:00 PM
Moonset: 10:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° SE MO 46° to 50° South IL 46° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 5:24 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of rain showers. Rain may taper off as snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 30° to 34° South IL 30° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 35° to 40° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.
Moonrise: 12:00 AM
Moonset: 11:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Last quarter
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There is little or no confidence in the Friday through Monday portion of the forecast.
Models are chaotic with everything from snow and ice to severe thunderstorms. Expect changes to the forecast.
Monitor updates.
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February 6, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain or snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° SE MO 40° to 45° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° West KY 42° to 45° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars and monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 5:25 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Colder. A snow shower possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 26° SE MO 20° to 25° South IL 20° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 25° West KY 24° to 26° NW TN 24° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 1:15 AM
Moonset: 11:44 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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February 7, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain or snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° SE MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 32° to 35° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 5:26 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a snow shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 25° SE MO 20° to 25° South IL 20° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 25° West KY 22° to 25° NW TN 22° to 25°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Moonrise: 2:26 AM
Moonset: 12:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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February 8, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Bitterly cold. Snow showers possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28° SE MO 20° to 25° South IL 18° to 24° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 25° West KY 22° to 25° NW TN 24° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 5:27 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 16° SE MO 8° to 14° South IL 8° to 14° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10° to 14° West KY 10° to 15° NW TN 14° to 16°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:35 AM
Moonset: 1:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through February 6th. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
No concerns through Wednesday night. Monitor updates concerning the Friday through Tuesday time-frame. Depending on storm track we could have anything from thunderstorms to a wintry mix. Low confidence.
Beau’s Weather Talk App by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Dry Monday through Wednesday morning.
- Light rain event Wednesday night into Thursday.
- Watching closely the weekend into next week. Perhaps some cold shots and maybe a wintry mix. Lower confidence in the long-range.
Rain fell over the weekend. Mainly Saturday into Saturday night. A few remaining showers dotted radar Sunday.
Colder air is moving in from the north.
A major winter storm struck central and northern Illinois where 5 to 10″+ of snow fell. Icy roadways to our north.
This is the second winter storm in a week. Once again, we were on the warm side of the system.
Some light rain and snow showers are possible into Sunday night. Tapering as we move through the night into Monday morning.
Some lingering clouds Monday. Cool.
Dry Tuesday into most of Wednesday. No extremes.
A fast moving system will bring a chance of rain and snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday night. At this time, it does not appear that this event will cause any travel concerns.
The bulk of the precipitation may hold off until Thursday. Rain totals of 0.00″ to 0.25″. Little or snow snow accumulation. As always, monitor updates.
Colder air sinks into the region Friday into the weekend.
Several disturbances will push across the region over the weekend into early next week.
Models are not in agreement on how to handle these events.
I have watched extreme changes from the GFS and EC model.
At one point, the GFS showed an ice and snow storm Friday night into Sunday. Meanwhile, the EC model showers rain and perhaps snow showers.
Then, at other times, the models would completely flip.
At this time, there is no confidence in the Friday through Tuesday portion of the forecast. Monitor updates.
Both models do show much colder air as we move into the weekend and next week. The colder air of the season is anticipated.
Whether we have a winter storm is the million dollar question. I will be closely watching model runs and trends over the coming days.
Stay tuned!
New February outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
Click the images to enlarge them
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers February 1st through February 7th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers February 8th through February 14th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers February 12th through February 25th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
Winter Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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