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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Saturday night – Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy. A 20% chance for a shower. Very mild for January. WELL above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: Lows from 48 to 54 degrees
Winds: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Mostly cloudy. Mild. Gusty winds possible. A few showers possible. Mostly on the light side. A small chance for thunder over western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
Temperatures: Highs will range 58 to 64 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts above 25 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some showers will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Gusty winds and wet pavement where rain does develop.
Sunday night – Cloudy. Showers possible. A rumble of thunder over western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
Temperatures: Lows from 50-55 degrees
Winds: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some showers are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and gusty winds.
Monday – Mostly cloudy. Gusty winds at times. Maybe a remaining shower. Very mild for January.
Temperatures: Highs will range 56 to 64 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph. Winds may turn more southeast/south during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but showers are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Gusty winds and wet pavement where rain does develop.
Monday night – Showers possible. Thunderstorms possible. Some storms could produce locally heavy rain. Windy. Mild.
Temperatures: Lows from 50-55 degrees
Winds: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% I will need to continue to fine tune the % chances for Monday night. Some disagreement among the guidance. I suspect a few showers will be in the area. Maybe thunder.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some showers are possible. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and gusty winds. Lightning possible.
Tuesday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain. Strong winds likely. Very mild ahead of the cold front.
Temperatures: Highs will range 56 to 64 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 15-30 mph. Gusts above 35 mph possible on Tuesday morning. Strong winds possible with thunderstorms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 90%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have another plan if you have outdoor activities.
Is severe weather expected? Severe weather can not be ruled out. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Gusty winds, heavy rain, lightning, and perhaps a few storms reaching severe levels. Monitor updates.
Turning colder on Wednesday – Friday. Highs in the 30s/40s. Lows into the 20s. Back to winter!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Clouds and a few showers for your Sunday into Sunday night.
2. Mild for several days to come.
3. Thunderstorm chances Monday night and especially on Tuesday
4. Much colder behind our Tuesday system
Well, I sure hope you have been enjoying your amazing Saturday weather. A rare January treat, to say the least. Temperatures in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Who could ask for better weather? Yes, well the snowmen among us. But, they had their fun a week or so ago. Now, the warm weather fans are having their day in the sun. So to speak.
Clouds will be on the increase on Saturday night and Sunday. An area of low pressure will move out of the Central United States and track into Missouri and Illinois. This area of low pressure will be the cause of our increasing cloud cover and shower chances.
There will be some scattered showers on radar Sunday. But, the best chances for a few showers will be on Sunday night into early Monday morning. I can’t rule out a rumble of thunder, as well. Severe weather is not anticipated on Sunday or Sunday night.
Here is the future-cast NAM radar from weatherbell.com
This is what weather radars might look like on Sunday morning around 10 am to 11 am. You can see a few light showers scattered around the area. Not a wash out, by any means. But, a few showers.
By the way, this won’t be exact. It is just a model map. Just take the general idea that there could be some showers. Radar won’t look exactly like this.
Future-cast radar for Sunday evening
A much stronger storm system, which we have been tracking for more than a week, will move into the region on Monday night and Tuesday. Especially Tuesday.
This system will bring gusty winds, showers, and some thunderstorms. A few of the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain and strong winds. Too early to know if severe weather will be a concern. I can’t rule it out. But, still a few days to monitor the details. Just keep checking the latest forecasts.
This is the GFS model guidance for the Tuesday system. Deep area of low pressure to our north. That means gusty winds for Monday night and Tuesday. Blue and purple would be heavy snow. Green would be rain showers and some thunderstorms.
This is the Tuesday evening weather map according to the GFS. There is some timing differences among the different guidance packages. Let’s keep an eye on this event as it draws nearer.
Much colder air arrives behind the Tuesday system. We shall return to winter. Highs by Wednesday will only rise into the 30s to perhaps lower 40s. Same for Thursday and Friday.
I am not tracking any snow or ice storms, at this time.
Soap box moment. If you will allow me just a minute of your time.
If you view a website or Facebook page telling you there is going to be a tornado outbreak 7, 6, 5, 4, 3 days in advance then please don’t share those posts. Those posts are meant to scare you. They want you to share those posts with your friends and family. Because who wouldn’t want their friends and family to know about a tornado outbreak a week in advance!
We call this hype. We call this click bait.
It is almost impossible to forecast tornado outbreaks that far in advance. Yes, perhaps occasionally those individuals will get one right. But, the majority of the time they will be wrong. The vast majority of time.
If you blindfold me and give me 1000 darts then I will eventually hit the bulls-eye. But, not before poking you with 900 darts.
Non-meteorologists and sadly some meteorologists are doing nothing else but wanting you to share those scary posts. These same individuals are the ones sharing mega-snowfall maps days in advance, as well.
It is irresponsible. And, it does more harm than good.
I have a simple forecast philosophy. Whether it is the best forecast philosophy or not, is for you decide. My philosophy is to ramp up not down.
What does ramp up mean? It means that you ramp up the intensity of the rhetoric and the confidence of the forecast as the event draws closer. You don’t go all or nothing days in advance.
Most severe weather outbreaks and winter storm forecasts come down to the last 12-24 hours. That is just the nature of meteorology. And, as you know, we sometimes don’t even get the forecast right within that time frame.
That is my philosophy. Is it the best philosophy? That is for you, the end user, to decide.
What can we forecast accurately?
It is possible to say the following
1. Some strong to potentially severe storms could occur on day X. Y. and Z.
2. Charts are indicating the potential of some heavy weather on day X, Y, and Z. Let’s monitor updates as we draw closer to that time frame.
3. You are encouraged to monitor updates concerning an incoming system on day X, Y, and Z.
Tornado outbreaks are not all that common. Yes, a few tornadoes occurring during an event would be common. But, an actual outbreak is less common.
It takes a lot of ingredients, coming together just right, to produce an actual outbreak of tornadoes in our local area.
Nick Hausen and Jim Rasor (from WSIL) share the same philosophy. Or, I share the same philosophy as them. Don McNeely also had this philosophy.
My job is to inform you, not scare you. My job is to give you the most accurate information possible, within a given time frame, to make decisions to keep you and your family as safe as possible.
Find a trusted source for weather information that is not going to scare you. Whoever it might be.
The state of meteorology, in the year 2016, is that we can see the potential of severe weather several days in advance. And, I see a lot of “tornado outbreaks” in the charts a week out. But, 90% of the time the charts are wrong.
And, this is why a trusted source for weather information will not tell you about those charts 7, 6, 5, 4, 3 days in advance. A trusted weather source will not use the phrase “tornado outbreak” days in advance.
Bottom line, please don’t share those scary posts. If you see something that causes you concern then please message one of your trusted sources for weather information. Ask them what they think. They will be happy to answer your questions.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO on Saturday.
A chance for lightning/thunder on Sunday afternoon and evening. Not as confident about storms on Sunday afternoon or evening. But, can’t rule out lightning.
Closely monitoring Monday night-Tuesday. A period or two of thunderstorms will occur. Heavy downpours likely. And, the severe weather threat needs to be monitored, as well. Still quite a bit of time to go before the details come into focus.
No winter weather anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated
Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated
Wednesday – Small chance for flurries
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated
No major adjustments in this forecast package update.
Monitoring Monday night into Tuesday for strong storms. Severe weather? Not sure, yet. Monitor updates.
I would recommend monitoring the forecast for early next week. Especially Monday night and Tuesday.
The wild card will be thunderstorms on Tuesday. Might some of them be on the strong side? Let’s keep monitoring.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Precipitation chances increase on Sunday and Sunday night. Light in nature. Small chance for a thunderstorm, as well.
Heavier rain event possible Monday night and especially Tuesday. Thunderstorms are a good possibility as a cold front sweeps through the region. Some of the storms could be on the heavy side.
Rainfall totals through Monday morning
Then, rainfall totals including the second event on Monday night/Tuesday. Remember when I mentioned that I thought NOAA was too high on their rainfall totals for Tuesday? They have backed down quite a bit. But, still some locally heavy rain will be possible. Let’s keep an eye on where the main line of storms develops.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
