Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.  

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.   

7.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  NO.   

8.  Is freezing rain in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.  I will monitor mid to late next week.  For now, it looks like rain, but it could be close.

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Notes:

THE FORECAST WILL TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll further down to see the region by region forecast.

Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

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A quick glance.  48-hour forecast Graphics

Thursday  Forecast:   Widespread rain developing from southwest to northeast.  A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~  100%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~  100%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widespread
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction:  Southeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  40° to 50°  during the morning.  In the 50s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.  Some low-end flooding issues possible.  Pea size hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index:  2. Low
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 5:18 PM
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Thursday  Night Forecast:  Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~  100%
Coverage of precipitation:    Widespread
Timing of the precipitation:   Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  45° to 50°
Southeast Missouri 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel  48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 48° to 50°
Far western Kentucky 48° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 48° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 48° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee  50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning possible. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 7:58 AM
Moonset: 6:47 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Friday Forecast:  A few remaining showers.  A thunderstorm will be possible.   Some storms could produce small hail.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the precipitation:  Mainly during the morning.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel 58° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 56° to 60°
Far western Kentucky 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 58° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction:  West southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  38° to 48°    during the morning.  In the 50s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor the  Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index:  3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 5:19 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel  38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 38° to 40°
Far western Kentucky 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee 38° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 36°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:25 AM
Moonset:  8:00 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  50° to 54°
Southeast Missouri 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky 52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction:  Southeast 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  35° to 40°   during the morning.  In the 50s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 5:20 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee 40° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:54 AM
Moonset:  9:11 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee 62° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction:  South at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  35° to 45°   during the morning.  In the 50s and 60s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:57AM
Sunset: 5:22 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 42°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:21 AM
Moonset:  10:22 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Here are the two primary models.  This shows you what radar might look like today, tonight, and tomorrow.

Hrrr high-res model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

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NAM 3K model shows rain.

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

Sunday will be mild.  Some locations could hit the sixty degree mark.

Monday looks nice, as well.

Here is the Sunday high temperature outlook  Double click on images to enlarge them.

Here is the Monday high temperature outlook

I continue to watch February 5th through the 7th for precipitation.  Perhaps another system or two right after that, as well.

Will ie be rain, snow, or ice?  That is still a question.  A lot of data shows rain, but also has the freezing line just to our north.

We will need to closely monitor that boundary.

The Canadian model shows a wintry mix and rain.  This is next Wednesday night/Thursday.

The GFs model shows rain, but the wintry mix is just to our north.  This is next Wednesday.

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The EC model shows mainly rain.  This is next Wednesday and Thursday.

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I continue to watch the cold air well to our north over the next two weeks.

At times, that cold air could ooze its way southward.

Whether we have snow or ice in February remains a question.  Models have backed off a bit on the cold air.

I will need to watch trends for now.

Check out temperatures next week.

This is the GFS model.  That boundary between the cold and warm will be the battle zone.  That is where precipitation will likely develop.

An ice storm in the cold zone.  Locally heavy rain in the warm zone.

Tuesday morning temperatures.  Cold air flirting with our region.  Warm air to the south.

Wednesday night temperatures. Cold north.  Warm south.  We are in the battle zone.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways!  Now, I have another product for you and your family.

** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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We have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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