Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  Warm weather ahead of us!  January?
2.  We will have to pay the piper for this warm weather.  Thunderstorms likely Monday night into Tuesday.
3.  Much colder air behind the Tuesday system.  Falling temperatures Tuesday night into the remainder of the work week.

Mild weather will be the talk of the town on Saturday and Sunday.  Temperatures will rise into the 50s and likely into the 60s for many of our local counties.

Saturday is the pick day of the week.

Normal high temperatures, for this time of the year, are around 42 degrees.  These are big time anomalies showing up on the maps below.

Let me show you some IMPRESSIVE anomaly maps.  These maps show you how much above or below normal temperatures will be on Saturday and Sunday.  Check out some of these crazy numbers!!!  Scale is on the right.  These maps are from weatherbell.com

This first one is for Saturday evening at 6 pm.  Temperatures 12-20 degrees above normal.

Look at the Sunday morning map.  This is for 6 am.  Those are some BIG anomalies.  20-25+ degrees above normal.  Normal temperatures at 6 am on Sunday would be around 22-24 degrees.  We won’t be anywhere near that.  It is possible that morning temperatures will be in the 50s.

Saturday high temperature map

But, of course, like I always tell you, you can’t have temperatures into the 60s in January without some consequences.

Sunday Showers?

Some showers are likely going to develop on Sunday into Monday.  This first system is much weaker than the second system.  The first system pushes through on Sunday night.  Weak area of low pressure will move to our north.

Some of the latest data shows a little bit of CAPE on Sunday afternoon and evening.  That means some lightning would be possible.  This would be a change in the forecast, if so.

Showers on Sunday are forecast to be fairly light in nature.  Expect quite a few clouds and some showers Sunday into Sunday night.  Perhaps some gusty winds at times, as well.

Here is the NAM model guidance from weatherbell.com  The grey colors and green colors represent rain showers.  Blue is snow (back in Nebraska and Kansas).

This first map is for Sunday morning at 6 am.  This is what future-cast radar might look like.  You can see a few showers expected.

Here is the 6 pm radar shot.  Some showers in the region.  Maybe rumbles of thunder, as well.

A MUCH larger storm system is forecast to move out of Oklahoma and Kansas into Missouri and Illinois on Monday night and Tuesday.  A deep area of low pressure is expected to move to the north of our local area.  This places us solidly in the warm and humid sector of this weather event.

Remember, an area of low pressure rotates counter-clockwise.  That means if a low pushes to our north, we are in the warm sector.  When a low moves to our south, we are in the cold sector.

Check out these PWAT maps.  What are PWAT values?  This is a measure of moisture in the entire atmospheric column (the Troposphere).

For the last few years we have experienced some fairly extreme PWAT anomalies.  Storm systems have had more moisture to work with.  This is one reason we have experienced some record rainfall events over the past decade.  And, snowstorms, as well.

Look at these PWAT anomaly maps ahead of the storm system on Monday into Tuesday.  You can visualize the cold front.  Behind the front PWAT values drop off drastically.

This tells me that torrential downpours are possible on Monday night and/or Tuesday along the cold front.

This is the Tuesday morning PWAT anomaly map.  Lot of red.  WAY above normal moisture in the atmosphere.  This is being pulled northward by the area of low pressure.  You can see the low over southeast Kansas (the red L).

This next map shows moisture increasing.  Those white shades within the red are 3-4+ standard deviations above normal.

This is the 11 am to 1 pm map.  Deep low passing into east central Missouri.  Impressive system.

This next map is for Tuesday evening.  The low is located over northern Illinois.   989 mb low on the GFS model guidance.  Impressive system.  Look at the TIGHT isobars in Iowa (that means strong winds).  Those are equal lines of barometric pressure.    Lines are not packed as tightly over our area.  But, there will be some strong winds as this system moves in and out of our local area.

Here is the GFS forecast for gradient winds on Tuesday morning.  What are gradient winds?  Those are surface winds that typically are caused by the movement of areas of high and low pressure.  As a deep low moves into the region you typically expect gusty winds.

Here is the Tuesday morning map.  I am forecasting gradient winds of 25-35 mph.  Maybe some 40 mph wind gusts.  These are not associated with thunderstorms.  These are just your normal winds to expect during the day.  Any thunderstorms that form could produce higher winds.  Keep that in mind.  Gusty winds for Tuesday.

There are several concerns about the Monday night and Tuesday storm system.

What about the severe weather threat?

Thunderstorms, with heavy rain, are likely going to move into the area on Monday night and Tuesday.  I am anticipating a line of storms to develop along the cold front.  The timing of the front will need to be adjusted as we move forward.  Right now, subject to changes, the main line of storms is forecast to move through our area on Tuesday morning or afternoon.  Again, timing needs to be monitored.

Here is what our system looks like on the GFS model guidance.  Deep area of low pressure.

This is for Tuesday morning.  Snow in purple and blue.  Pink/orange is ice.  Green would be rain and storms.  You can see the low near St Louis, MO.  992 mb on the GFS.  The low is moving northeast.

Moving ahead to Tuesday afternoon and evening.  The low continue to move northeast.  Heavy snow and ice from Nebraska into Iowa and southwest Minnesota and then into Wisconsin and Michigan.  The low is 989 mb over northern Illinois on Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Showers and thunderstorms over our local area.  Gusty winds.

Moving ahead to Tuesday night.  Snow showers all the way into Missouri.  That basically means colder air for our region.  A sudden temperature drop after our nice 50s and 60s.  Say goodbye to those temperatures.

Severe Weather Potential for Monday night and Tuesday?

1. Line of fast moving thunderstorms possible on Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours
2. Strong winds associated with the deep area of low pressure.  Gradient surface winds over 30-35 mph likely.
3. A few storms could be intense.
4. Storms will be moving at speeds of 60-70 mph.  Zipping along to the northeast.

There are several ingredients in the data that leads me to believe we may have to deal with a few strong thunderstorms on Monday night and Tuesday. I can’t rule out severe thunderstorms, but that is dependent on a number of parameters coming together.

Some of the parameters are not overly impressive.  Others are very impressive.  This is not uncommon during the winter months.  Normally we have strong wind fields aloft, but not much CAPE.

One question is CAPE.  Remember, CAPE is basically a measure of energy in the atmosphere that is available for thunderstorms.  Little or no CAPE and my concerns diminish greatly.  But, if there is some CAPE then the risk for some severe weather increases.  This is still an unknown.

Several days to go before the fine details will come into focus.  Remember, most severe weather events and winter weather events come down to the last 12-24 hours.  Meaning, an accurate forecast is more likely during that time frame.  So, we still have a lot of time to monitor this event.

I will be monitoring data throughout the upcoming weekend.  And, as my confidence grows as to how Monday night and Tuesday will unfold, I will be posting updates here and on Facebook.  I might even do a video at some point to discuss the potential and answer your questions.

Here is the expected storm motion.  What direction will the storms be moving and how fast.   This indicates storms could move at speeds over 60 mph.  Moving to the northeast.

Here is what the Storm Prediction Center is showing for Tuesday.  The area in orange and red indicate where some storms might reach severe limits.  Still early to know for sure.  And, the SPC normally will adjust the outline (sometimes a LOT).  Let’s keep monitoring over the coming days.  The red zone is where confidence is a little higher that some storms will be strong and/or severe.

No winter weather anticipated.

No major changes in this forecast package

Monitoring Monday night into Tuesday for strong storms.  Severe weather?  Not sure, yet.  Monitor updates.

I would recommend monitoring the forecast for early next week.  Especially Monday night and Tuesday.

The wild card in this forecast will be high temperatures on Saturday and Sunday afternoon.  Could someone top 60 degrees?  Possibly!

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

No precipitation on Thursday into Sunday morning.

Some showers are possible on Sunday afternoon into Monday.  Right now it appears these would be light in nature.  But, a heavier rain event is possible on Monday night into Tuesday.

Rainfall amounts from system one on Sunday afternoon into Monday should be less than 0.20″.  Some locations will likely not receive any measurable rainfall.

Here are the forecast rainfall totals for the Sunday into Monday afternoon system.  As you can see, quite light.  Some may remain mostly dry.

Here are the rainfall totals for the second system.  Quite a bit heavier with that system.  Locally heavy rain is possible and some thunderstorms.

Widespread 0.40″-0.80″ likely with system two.  And, some pockets of greater than 1″ possible.  Some guidance is showing 1″-2″.  Let’s keep an eye on it.  Seems occasionally the charts show heavier rain than actually ends up occurring.  But, nonetheless, some locally heavy rain possible.

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO on Friday into  Sunday.  Closely monitoring Monday night-Tuesday.  Perhaps a few thunderstorms.

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. 

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.