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I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Weather Talk is a monthly subscription texting (and more) service. Supporting this helps cover the daily costs (average monthly costs are $700+) or all of the data, my time, and the Shadow Angel Foundation. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones. You can sign up and opt out of the text messages, as well.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. These are updated twice weekly.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three. These are found behind the Personal Notification Settings on the weathertalk.com page.
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Winter storm outlook has been posted. Updated on Saturday, December 31, 2016
Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
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January 2, 2017
Monday Night: Cloudy. Foggy. Damp. Showers likely during the evening hours. Then, a chance for showers after midnight. A few thunderstorms possible before midnight. Lows will range from the upper 40’s over our northwest counties in southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois. Elsewhere, lows will mainly be in the 50’s.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Fog with low visibility.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Temperatures mostly in the 50’s. Mild for January. Temperatures may remain steady through most of the night.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west late tonight. Winds of 6-12 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early and the becoming scattered late.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? The risk for severe weather is small, but perhaps not zero.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 9:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:21 p.m. Waning Crescent
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January 3, 2017
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers possible. Falling temperatures from west to east as a strong cold front passes through the region. Gusty winds, at times.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures may occur during the morning hours. Temperatures in the 50’s on Tuesday morning will fall into the 30’s and 40’s by afternoon. See graphics in the blog discussion part of the page.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Morning winds west and northwest at 6-12 mph. Afternoon winds west and northwest at 8-16 mph. Gusts to 25 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but falling temperatures on Tuesday afternoon.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 9:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:21 p.m. Waning Crescent
Tuesday Night: Clouds before midnight. Breezy. Some clearing late. Colder. Small chance for a flurry.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 22 to 28 degree range. Coldest near Farmington, MO and Mt Vernon, IL and warmest towards Hopkinsville, Kentucky.
Wind Chill: 8 to 16 degrees
Winds: North and northwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Flurries possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 9:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:21 p.m. Waning Crescent
January 4, 2017
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Much colder than recent days. Cold wind chill values.
What impact is expected? Cold wind chills.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 26 to 34 degree range. Winds will make it feel colder.
Wind Chill: 8 to 16 degrees before 10 am and then 15-25 degrees after 10 am
Winds: North and northwest during the morning at 6-12 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Afternoon winds of 5-10 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely. Possible flurry early in the morning.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be chilly.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:51 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 1:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:04 p.m. Waning Crescent
Wednesday Night: Increasing clouds. Some spotty flurries or snow showers possible over the northern half of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. No accumulation to perhaps a dusting.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. I will monitor the snow chances. Roads will be cold.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 16 to 22 degree range.
Wind Chill: 10-15 degrees
Winds: North at 6~12 mph. Gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps some scattered returns on radar over Missouri and Illinois. Especially the northern half of those areas.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Yes. A flurry or snow showers possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
January 5, 2017
Thursday: Cloudy. Snow showers possible.
What impact is expected? Chilly. There is at least a chance for a little light snow accumulation. This would mainly be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Monitor updates as this system is brought into view.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle 20’s northern counties to lower 30’s elsewhere. Northern counties would include Perry County, Missouri towards Carmi, Illinois.
Wind Chill: 14-25
Winds: Northwest and north at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Snow showers possible
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be chilly. Snow showers also possible.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:52 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 11:44 a.m. and moonset will be at -:– First quarter
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with snow showers possible early. Bitterly cold with low wind chill values.
What impact is expected? Wind chill values of 5 above to 15 above. Frost bite weather. Will monitor the snow chances.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 10 to 16 degree range
Wind Chill: 5 to 15 degrees
Winds: North at 6~12 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered snow showers before 9 pm.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Some snow flurries or snow showers possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Snow showers and bitterly cold air. Have a plan B.
January 6, 2017
Friday: Partly sunny. Cold.
What impact is expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 22 to 26 degree range
Wind Chill: 10 to 20 degrees
Winds: North at 6-12 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:53 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 12:20 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:31 Waxing Gibbous
Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Cold.
What impact is expected? Monitor updated forecasts as a southern storm system may develop near our region.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 14-16 degrees
Wind Chill: 5 to 14 degrees
Winds: North at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none, but monitor updates
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
January 7, 2017
Saturday: Partly sunny. Cold.
What impact is expected? Most likely none, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 25 to 30 degree range
Wind Chill: 15 to 25 degrees
Winds: North at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none, but monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:54 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 1:00 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:38 Waxing Gibbous
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Cold.
What impact is expected? Most likely none, but monitor updated forecasts as a southern storm system may develop near our region.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 12 to 18 degrees
Wind Chill: 5 to 12 degrees
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none, but monitor updates
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.Visit their website here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Monday evening/night showers. Some rumble of thunder.
- Cold blast of air arrives on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Falling temperatures on Tuesday.
- Snow chances later this week
- The winter weather has been updated (2 PM Monday update)
Forecast analysis
Winter outlook has been posted and updated!
Updated on Monday afternoon. I am tracking the mid to late week system next week. Thus, the frequent updates.
The winter outlook can be found on the www.weathertalk.com website. Sign into your account and click the Daily Weather Summary tab. I have posted a link and a password behind that tab.
Monday night through Tuesday morning
Confidence: High
Showers and thunderstorms moved into the region on Monday morning. The coverage was not nearly as much as anticipated. Late afternoon radar did show widespread showers and storms moving into the area from northeast Arkansas and western Tennessee.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will be with us into Monday night. Activity will diminish late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Fog will continue to be an issue, as well. Use care.
A cold front will sweep through the region on Tuesday morning and afternoon.
Check out these two temperature maps.
The first map is for Tuesday at 12 pm. The second map is for Tuesday at 6 pm.
Temperatures will likely be falling from late morning into the afternoon hours. Especially true for the western half of the region.
Tuesday evening
A few scattered showers are possible along the front on Tuesday. Perhaps ending as a snow flurry or two on Tuesday night/Wednesday. No accumulation anticipated.
Wind chills will be cold on Wednesday morning.
Our next weather system arrives on Thursday.
Here are the wind chill maps for Wednesday morning and evening. Thursday morning, as well. Time stamp at the top left of the image.
Wednesday 9 am
Wednesday 9 pm
Thursday 9 am
Thursday
Confidence: Low
A weak system will pass through the region on Thursday. The models have been struggling with this system for over a week. Some models show a dusting to 1-2″ of snow. Other models show flurries. Other models show dry conditions for Thursday.
I will leave a chance for snow showers in the forecast. If guidance begins to merge on a sensible solution then I will adjust the wording of the snow chances.
Thursday night through Sunday
Confidence: Low
See the official winter weather outlook for the Thursday night through Sunday part of the forecast.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. These are updated twice weekly.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three. These are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com page.
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
Rainfall totals on Monday evening and night will likely remain in the 0.10″ to 0.30″. Heavier totals possible in thunderstorms.
High and Low-Temperature Outlook
Tuesday morning low temperatures. Temperatures may fall during the late morning and afternoon hours.
Tuesday afternoon high temperatures
Wednesday morning low temperatures.
Wednesday afternoon high temperatures
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Monday afternoon/evening: Monitor updates. Small risk for severe weather. Perhaps some hail in the stronger thunderstorms. Overall the risk for severe weather remains small, but perhaps not zero.
Tuesday through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
No major changes to the forecast.
No major concerns through Tuesday morning.
Much colder air will arrive starting late morning Tuesday and early afternoon over our northwest counties of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. The front will then spread east and southeast. Falling temperatures behind the front.
Wind chills will dip into the teens on Wednesday into at least Saturday.
I continue to monitor Thursday snow chances and Friday/Saturday snow chances. Low confidence.
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our region’s weather patterns.
I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geosciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes the following:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
I am the owner and operator of Weather Talk (in partnership with The Fire Horn)
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple…
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
