Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

We have a few sponsors that are helping cover new technology costs!  Check them out.

Heating problems?

One Hour Heating and Air – Click Here

Connected and Protected.

They Specialize in Audio, Video, Networking, Security, Cameras, Electrical, New Construction, Remodels, and retrofitting Jobs. Experience the future of smart living and unmatched security with Connected & Protected Solutions today.

Link – Click here

Roof damage from recent storms? Link – Click here

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.  

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.   

7.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  NO.   

8.  Is freezing rain in the forecast? NO.

.

.

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
.

.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
.

Notes:

THE FORECAST WILL TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll further down to see the region by region forecast.

Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

.

A quick glance.  48-hour forecast Graphics

Tuesday  Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri 55° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  52° to 54°
Southern Illinois 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky  52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph. Gusty, at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  20° to 30°    during the morning.  In the 40s and 50s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 5:16 PM
.

Tuesday Night Forecast:   Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 30° to 34°
Southern Illinois  32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 33° to 35°
Far western Kentucky  32° to 35°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 32° to 35°
Northwest Tennessee 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 32°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:45 AM
Moonset: 4:21 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

.

Wednesday Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri 55° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel 56° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  50° to 52°
Southern Illinois 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 54° to 56°
Far western Kentucky  54° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 54° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 54° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee 54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  25° to 30°    during the morning.  In the 40s and 50s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 5:17 PM
.

Wednesday Night Forecast:  Increasing clouds. A chance of showers over mainly southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel 36° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois  32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky 34° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee 34° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: Light southeast wind at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 38°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:24 AM
Moonset: 5:34 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

.

Thursday  Forecast:   Widespread rain developing from southwest to northeast.  A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~  80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~  70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widespread
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel 55° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 50° to 54°
Southern Illinois 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 54 to 56°
Far western Kentucky 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction:  Southeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  25° to 30°    during the morning.  In the 40s and 50s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index:  2. Low
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 5:18 PM
.

Thursday  Night Forecast:  Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~  100%
Coverage of precipitation:    Widespread
Timing of the precipitation:   Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel  48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 48° to 50°
Far western Kentucky 48° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 46° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee  48° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 7:58 AM
Moonset: 6:47 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

.

Friday Forecast:   Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~  40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  55° to 60°
Southeast Missouri 55° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel 55° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 55° to 60°
Southern Illinois 55° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 55° to 60°
Far western Kentucky 55° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 55° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee 55° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction:  Southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  35° to 45°    during the morning.  In the 50s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index:  3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 5:19 PM
.

Friday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:   Widely scattered (ending)
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 3 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel  38° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee  32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest at 10 to 20  mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 32°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 6:25 AM
Moonset:  8:00 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Good morning, everyone.

January has certainly been cold.

Look at the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS stats.  Each day with blue is a day with below average temperatures.   Dark blue is well below average temperatures.   Thus far, the month is -5.5 degrees!  That is very cold.

Orange is a day with above average temperatures.

We are waking up to chilly temperatures, but nothing extreme.  The wind may make it feel a little cooler.

Today will be a decent day with above average temperatures.  Again, gusty wind may make it feel a bit cooler, at times.

No significant weather concerns today through Wednesday evening.

There will be a slightly elevated fire risk today.  Avoid burning fields and brush.  Conditions today aren’t quite as bad as yesterday.

Our next weather system arrives on Wednesday night.  An area of low pressure will pull moisture northward from The Gulf.  This will lead to showers and thunderstorms.

You can see that large system on the EC model 500 mb vort map.

That is the energy that brings our rain.

I have added rain to the Wednesday night forecast.  Mainly after midnight.  Mainly over southeast Missouri and western Tennessee.

Let me show you two model.  This shows you six hour rainfall totals from 12 AM to 6 AM Thursday.  You can see it edging our way.

GFS model

EC model

All of that is moving northeast.

As we move through Thursday morning the rain will overspread the region from southwest to northeast.

Plan on a rainy Thursday into Friday.

Locally heavy rain is possible.  A widespread one inch of rain will occur.  Then, there will be bands of one to two inches.  Locally higher amounts possible.

Here is the latest WPC rainfall outlook.

Central and eastern view.

Double click images to enlarge them.

Western view

Zoomed out view

As we look the GFS and EC models, we can see decent agreement in the rainfall totals.

The GFS model

The EC model

So, you get the general idea on rainfall totals.  A few embedded thunderstorms are possible, as well.

This could be enough rain to cause some nuisance flooding.  Ditches overflowing, field flooding, commonly flooded roadways that flood could flood.

The ground is still thawing from our recent cold weather.  That could mean a bit more runoff than normal.

We are in a marginal and slight risk of excessive rainfall.  NOAA/WPC issues this product.

Widespread flash flooding or issues are not anticipated.

Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated.  That is the good news.

A fews showers may linger into Saturday.  Overall, we will be drying out by then.

Check out Sunday’s temperatures.  That would be nice.

Double click image to enlarge it.

I am watching another system around February 6th.

Here are the three primary models.

Canadian model shows rain.

GFS model shows rain.

EC model shows rain.

I continue to watch the cold air well to our north over the next two weeks.

At times, that cold air could ooze its way southward.

Whether we have snow or ice in February remains a question.  Models have backed off a bit on the cold air.

I just need to watch trends for now.

Check out the extended weeklies precipitation outlook from the GFS and EC models.

Don’t take specifics from this.  This takes us through all of February.

What does this tell me?  It tells me the pattern looks to be active as we move through February with frequent chances of precipitation.  It won’t be exactly right, but I am taking the general idea from it.

EC model through the beginning of March.  Again, active with above average precipitation.

.

Let’s Look At The Future-cast Radar

What radar might look like later this week.  This is the primary precipitation event this week.

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

GFS American Model.  Double click the animation to enlarge it.

.

And the EC European model

.

.

.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

.

..

.

.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

.

.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
.

Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways!  Now, I have another product for you and your family.

** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
.

We have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

.

WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
.

.

More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?

Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!

Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!

Here is a video on how to update your Beau Dodson Weather payment.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

.

.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.

.

Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson

.