Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

Wednesday night – Some clouds.  Cool. 
Temperatures:  Lows from 28 to 34 degrees.
Winds:  Variable winds at 6-12 mph.  Gusts to 15-20 mph at times late tonight.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None

Thursday – A period of morning clouds and then partly cloudy into the afternoon.  A bit milder.
Temperatures:  Highs will range 45-50 degrees range.  Possibly a bit above 50 degrees near Poplar Bluff, MO.
Winds:   Southwest winds at 6-12 mph with gusts above 15 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None

Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  Dry for Thursday into Saturday.  Much warmer.
2.  Some showers possible Sunday afternoon and night
3.  Temperatures may approach 60 by Sunday afternoon into Monday
4.  Stronger storm system for Monday night into Tuesday
5.  Much colder middle of next week

The main weather story over the next few days will be the milder temperatures.  Expect temperatures to approach 50 degrees and perhaps exceed it on Thursday and Friday afternoon.  Right now it appears most of the area will remain in the upper 40s on Thursday and Friday.  But, I suspect southern and southwestern counties could experience some 48-52 degree readings.

We may have a period of clouds on both Thursday and Friday.  Keep that in mind.

And, by Saturday and Sunday temperatures will soar well into the 50s.  We may touch 60 on Saturday.  I can’t rule out some 60s on Sunday.  Imagine that.  Our regions weather is a roller-coaster.

Gusty winds will be possible Friday night into the weekend ahead of an area of low pressure.  This low will push to our north on Sunday into Monday morning.  Another storm system will move into the Central United States on Monday into Tuesday.  The second system will likely produce blizzard conditions on the north and west side of the low.  But, showers and thunderstorms will occur on the east and south side of the low (which is where we will find ourselves placed).

Here is the wind graphic for Friday night.  Perhaps some 25+ mph wind gusts in the area.  Further north you travel the gustier the winds are forecast to be.

and here is the graphic for Saturday.  The orange, red, and pink colors would be wind gusts over 25 mph.

The system early next week:

Our region will find itself placed on the warm side of this area of low pressure.  The east and south side.  Thus, widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Monday night into Tuesday afternoon.  Some of the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain and strong winds.  There is a chance that a few storms could be on the strong side.  Let’s keep an eye on it.

Gusty winds are likely with this second system.  Wind gusts above 30 mph will be possible Monday night and Tuesday.

CAPE values are used to measure energy in the atmosphere.  We typically utilize CAPE in the spring-fall months.  But, occasionally we see some CAPE build during the winter.  And, that may be the case for Tuesday.  This is something that will need to be monitored.  CAPE values over 100 in the winter can cause some problems.  Normally CAPE is used in forecasting severe weather.

Let’s look at dew points.  I usually look for dew points between 58 and 64 degrees during the winter months when considering stronger thunderstorms.  We do see the system pulling moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.  You can see the yellow colors representing upper 50s and lower 60s.  Again, dew points are a measure of moisture in the air.

Bottom line

Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms on Monday night into Tuesday.

The EC and GFS model guidance is not in exact agreement on the speed of the area of low pressure departing Oklahoma and moving into Missouri and Illinois.  The EC is a little faster than the GFS (at least in this forecast package).  The timing of the heavier rain and storms will need to be fine-tuned as we move forward.  Keep that in mind.  Both models show frontal passage on Tuesday/Tuesday night.  Just the exact timing is the question mark.

Here is the GFS model guidance showing the deep low pushing into the Missouri Valley on Monday night.  Blue is snow.  Green would be showers.

Those lines are isobars.  Equal lines of pressure.

Moving ahead to Tuesday lunch hour.  Ice storm over northern Illinois.  Blizzard over parts of Iowa and Nebraska.  And, rain in our region.  Thunderstorms?  Possible.  Tight lines on the map.  Strong winds where those isobars are tightly packed together.  994 mb low over Oklahoma on Tuesday and it is moving northeast.

A few graphics.

Pulling ahead.  The analogs show the warm up early next week.  But, look at what happens in the second graphic.  These graphics tell you whether to expect above or below normal temperatures.  Red colors are above normal probabilities for above normal temperatures.  The blue is, of course, below normal temperatures.

Check out the high temperatures over the coming days.  Milder air is on the way.

Thursday high temperatures.  Upper 40s to lower 50s.

Friday high temperatures

Saturday high temperatures

Sunday high temperatures

Ahead of our storm system

Behind our storm system

Speaking of that storm system.  He is the area of low pressure on Tuesday and the associated cold front and warm front.  Check out that warm surge of air northward into our region.  And, check out the cold air behind it.  Heavy snow to the north and west of the low.  But, not for us.  We will experience thunderstorms and rain.

and

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined this area for a few strong storms next Monday/Tuesday.  Let’s see how this evolves over the coming days.

No winter weather anticipated.

Adjusted wind direction

No major concerns into Saturday.

No

The wild card in this forecast will be high temperatures on Sunday afternoon.  Could someone top 60 degrees?  Possibly!

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

No precipitation on Thursday into Sunday morning.

Some showers are possible on Sunday afternoon into Monday.  Right now it appears these would be light in nature.  But, a heavier rain event is possible on Monday night into Tuesday.

Rainfall amounts from system one on Sunday afternoon into Monday should be less than 0.20″.  Some locations will likely not receive any measurable rainfall.

Here are the forecast rainfall totals for the Sunday into Monday afternoon system.  As you can see, quite light.  Some may remain dry.

Here are the rainfall totals for the second system.  Quite a bit heavier with that system.  Locally heavy rain is possible and some thunderstorms.

Widespread 0.40″-0.80″ likely with system two.  And, some pockets of greater than 1″ possible.  Some guidance is showing 1″-2″.  Let’s keep an eye on it.  Seems occasionally the charts show heavier rain than actually ends up occurring.  But, nonetheless, some locally heavy rain possible.

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO on Thursday into Sunday.  Closely monitoring Monday night-Tuesday.  Perhaps a few thunderstorms.

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. 

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.