Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Morning showers likely.  A thunderstorm is possible.  Mild for late December.  Patchy fog.  The bulk of the rain will be early in the morning, then drying out southwest to northeast.  A few light showers and patchy drizzle will linger into the afternoon hours.  See the radar links at the bottom of the page.

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~  60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~  70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous early in the morning.  Scattered PM.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time (mostly AM hours)
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction:  South southeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index:  1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of a light shower or patchy drizzle.  Patchy fog.  Mild for December.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~  48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:12 AM
Moonset: 1:54 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Showers redeveloping.  A chance of a thunderstorm.  Mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.  More likely during the afternoon.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction:  South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 840%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~  44° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated radars.
Moonrise: 5:16 AM
Moonset: 2:34 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers.  A thunderstorm possible (mainly during the morning).  Mild for December.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time (more likely during the AM hours)
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction:  West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A slight chance of showers over our eastern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~  42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: West southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:18 AM
Moonset: 3:24 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent
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Monday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction:  Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Monday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A  chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:   Scattered
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~40° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 7:17 AM
Moonset: 4:23 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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Tuesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly during the morning hours.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction:  West 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~30° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:08 AM
Moonset: 5:30 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. 1.   Mild temperatures for late December.  This will continue through at least Monday night.
   2.   Damp.  Wet weather.
   3.   Thunderstorms are possible into Saturday.  A few of the storms could be intense Saturday night.   Monitor updates.
   4.   Watching colder air the first two weeks of January.  Mingled with warm shots.  We will have to monitor the trends on how far south the cold extends.  Too early to know if snow or ice will be an issue.  Monitor updates.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Our active weather pattern continues.

We are waking up to widespread showers and thunderstorms.  None severe, thankfully.

Locally heavy downpours and lightning have been the primary concern this morning.

There was a report or two of pea size hail with the strongest storms, as well.

The good news is that the bulk of the rain will exit this morning.  That will leave us with clouds and a few patchy showers as we move through the afternoon hours.  Patchy fog and drizzle, as well.

It will mostly be dry tonight.  I lowered rain chances.  Patchy fog possible.

Tomorrow morning will be mostly dry, as well.

Our next storm system arrives Saturday afternoon and night.  I am expecting widespread showers and thunderstorms.  A few of the storms could be strong or severe over the Missouri Bootheel and along the KY/TN border.

Confidence in actual severe weather is low.  I can’t rule out some strong wind gusts with the most intense thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined that area for a low risk of severe weather.  A level one (marginal) risk.  That is the lowest risk they have.

You can see that on this graphic.  Adjustments are still possible.

The light green zone is where lightning is possible.

The dark green zone is where storms could be severe or near severe.

I will keep an eye on it.  This does not appear to be a big threat for our region.  A more significant risk will develop well to our south.

Double click on images to make them larger.

Showers and storms may linger into Sunday morning.  The bulk of the rain will fall Saturday PM/night.

Another system will move through the region Monday and Tuesday.  A few more showers are possible.

We finally cool down next Tuesday/Wednesday.  NOthing extreme.  It will at least feel a bit more like January.

Occasionally, models show a bigger dump of cold air around January 7th to 10th.  But, they waffle on the intensity of the cold.
I continue to monitor it.

No snow or ice in the current forecast.

Once the cold air arrives, the trend has been for mainly below average precipitation.

I am watching a possible storm system around January 6th/7th.  For now, models show that as a warm system with showers and storms.  Then, turning colder behind it.

Long way off.  I will monitor trends, as always.

Let’s look at a few charts from the EC and GFS models.  Two different models.

The EC shows the Monday night/Tuesday rain event.  Double click on images to make them larger.

The EC model shows another system around December 5th.

The GFS model shows the January 6th/7th rain event, as well.  It is stronger on the GFS.

I will monitor trends.

Let me show you some ensemble data.

Ensembles are

Let’s look at tomorrow’s temperature anomaly map.

Notice how all the squares are red.  That means above average temperatures.  A 100% chance.  Every square agrees.

Double click on images to make them larger.

Now, let’s look farther out.

This is the EC ensembles for next Wednesday/Thursday.  Notice the blue colors?  Strong agreement that we will be near or below average in the temperature department.

Normal highs are in the 40s.  Normal lows are in the 20s.

Now let’s look even farther out.  This is January 9th.

Quite a bit of agreement for well below average temperatures.  Perhaps some bitterly cold temperatures.  Lows in the teens possible.

The GFS ensembles agree with the EC ensembles.  Two different models.

This gives me confidence that we will experience some cold temperatures around the 8th through the 10th.  Give or take on the days.  We will have to see how long the cold air lingers.

Let’s look at the snow maps.

These are ensemble snow maps.

The EC model.  Some of the frames show snow.  Some do not. There is not agreement on that portion of the forecast.

I will monitor it.  Perhaps some clipper systems or snow showers with the cold air.  Confidence in a winter storm is low.  For now, at least.

Double click on images to make them larger.

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

The Hrrr model

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

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Here is the NAM model.

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Let’s look farther out.  The Monday and Wednesday systems.

GFS model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

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EC model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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