Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.  

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.   

7.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  UNLIKELY.  A few rain or snow showers will be possible this afternoon and tonight across the Missouri Bootheel and along the KY/TN border.  Impacts are unlikely.   

8.  Is freezing rain in the forecast? NO.

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Notes:

THE FORECAST WILL TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll further down to see the region by region forecast.

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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

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A quick glance.  48-hour forecast Graphics

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Sunday Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  A slight chance of sprinkles across the Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 3 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  38° to 42°
Southern Illinois  42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee 42° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  25° to 35°    during the morning.  In the upper 30s to lower 40s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 5:14 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of scattered rain or snow showers across the Missouri Bootheel east along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.  Little or no impacts anticipated.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered (far south)
Timing of the precipitation:  Before 12 am
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri  22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  18° to 22°
Southern Illinois  20° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky 24° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee  28° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: North 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 14° to 22°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? I will monitor the snow showers.  Impacts are unlikely.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:04 AM
Moonset: 2:07 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Monday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  48° to 50°
Southeast Missouri 44° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  44° to 46°
Southern Illinois  44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  12° to 24°    during the morning.  In the 40s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 5:15 PM
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Monday Night Forecast:   Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri 28° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel 28° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois  28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 28° to 32°
Far western Kentucky 28° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 28° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 28° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee 28° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:00 AM
Moonset: 3:11 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Tuesday  Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri 55° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  52° to 55°
Southern Illinois 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky  52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  20° to 30°    during the morning.  In the 40s and 50s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 5:16 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast:   Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel 36° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 32° to 35°
Southern Illinois  32° to 35°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 33° to 36°
Far western Kentucky 33° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 33° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee 33° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 32°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:45 AM
Moonset: 4:21 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Wednesday Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri 55° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel 56° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  50° to 52°
Southern Illinois 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 54° to 56°
Far western Kentucky  54° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 54° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 54° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee 54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  25° to 30°    during the morning.  In the 40s and 50s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 5:17 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:   Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel 33° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois  32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky 33° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 33° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee 33° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: North 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:24 AM
Moonset: 5:34 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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Thursday  Forecast:   Increasing clouds. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the precipitation:   After  10 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  25° to 30°    during the morning.  In the 40s and 50s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index:  2. Low
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 5:18 PM
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Thursday  Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation:    Scattered
Timing of the precipitation:   Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel  34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee  34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.  Rain is possible.
Moonrise: 7:58 AM
Moonset: 6:47 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Good day, everyone.

It will be cool today, but nothing extreme.

A southern storm system will brush our far southern counties later today and tonight.  A few snow or rain showers will be possible across the Missouri Bootheel and then east along the Kentucky/Tennessee state line southward.

Any precipitation would be light and we aren’t expecting impacts.  I will monitor it.

The NAM 3K model shows those rain and snow showers.  Other models are farther south.

The NAM 3K brushes our southern counties. Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

Future-cast Radar (what radar might look like)

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

A warming trend begins tomorrow and will linger into the week.  This will help keep precipitation liquid vs frozen.

Let’s look at some regional temperatures

Highs today (cool).  Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

A bit warmer tomorrow

Warmer Tuesday

Warmer Wednesday

Our next storm system arrives Thursday and Thursday night and will linger into the weekend.

The seven day rainfall shows that precipitation event.  Let’s watch trends on this as we move through the week.

A widespread 0.70″ to 1.40″ is anticipated.  Most of that will fall on Thursday night into Friday night.

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

I can’t rule out a rumble of thunder on Friday.  Severe weather is not anticipated, thankfully.

Future-cast Radar (what radar might look like)

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

This is the GFS model for the late week system (THU/FRI)

Guidance is quite active as we push into February.  I do not believe we are finished with cold air.  Whether we have snow or ice with that cold air remains a question.

Let me show  you a few charts.

Here is the 5 day running temperature anomaly for the week ahead.

Mostly warm colors.  Above average temperatures for the week ahead.

Here is this coming weekend into next week.  Again, odds favor mostly above average temperatures.

We then watch for the possibility of cold temperatures.

The EC ensembles bring colder air back to the region somewhere around February 8th to 12th. This is the five day running anomaly.

If we drill down to a single day, we can see it is colder.

Here is the EC model one day temperature anomaly centered on February 9th and 10th.  Colder than average.

This is the GFS ensemble model temperature anomaly.  This is February 5th to February 11th.  It is colder than average.

What is the take away?

We will likely have mostly near normal to above average temperatures this coming week.  Then, we will watch for a couple of cold shots the following week.

Precipitation anomalies show above average precipitation.

GFS ensemble precipitation anomaly.  Looks active.

EC model precipitation anomaly.  Looks active.

Too soon to know if some of that precipitation will be snow or ice.

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Future-cast Radar

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways!  Now, I have another product for you and your family.

** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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We have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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