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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Yes. Snow likely Wednesday. This should be a light event. A dusting to an inch or two of snow. Max amounts will likely fall across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Saturday and Saturday night.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Unlikely. I will monitor Saturday.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain is possible Saturday. Monitor updates. Our recent heavy rain would make flooding a bit more likely.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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January 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: AM fog. Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50° SE MO 45° to 50° South IL 45° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° West KY 46° to 50° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 5:14 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds from the southwest. A slight chance of freezing rain and snow over mainly southeast Missouri after midnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° West KY 26° to 30° NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated after midnight
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates in case some freezing precipitation moves in after midnight.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 3:09 PM
Moonset: 5:32 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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January 27, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow showers likely. Accumulation of snow from 0.50″ to 2.00″.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 40° SE MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Slick spots on roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 1. Low
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 5:15 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers early.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 26° SE MO 20° to 25° South IL 20° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 25° West KY 22° to 25° NW TN 24° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: North 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 4:09 PM
Moonset: 6:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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January 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° SE MO 34° to 36° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 36° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 5:16 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 26° SE MO 23° to 26° South IL 23° to 26° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° West KY 24° to 28° NW TN 24° to 28°
Wind direction and speed: Variable direction at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 26°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:13 PM
Moonset: 7:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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January 29, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° SE MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 44° to 46° NW TN 45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 5:17 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° SE MO 28° to 34° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 32° to 34° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:21 PM
Moonset: 7:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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January 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely. A thunderstorm is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 50° to 54° South IL 50° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 50° to 55° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 5:18 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. A thunderstorm is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° SE MO 38° to 42° South IL 38° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° West KY 40° to 42° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 42°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 7:30 PM
Moonset: 8:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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January 31, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers early in the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 45° to 50° South IL 45° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways early in the day.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 5:19 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 35° SE MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:38 PM
Moonset: 9:04 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through January 29th. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
I am monitoring a chance of light snow Wednesday.
Beau’s Weather Talk App by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Light snow Wednesday. Mixed with rain.
- Dry Thursday and Friday.
- Rain returns by the weekend.
The main weather story is a fast moving snow system.
This system will spread snow into our region late tonight (SE MO) into tomorrow morning. It will move west to east.
See the future-cast radars further down in the blog update.
This is a marginal snow event. Ground temperatures are not that cold. Surface temperatures will be near or above freezing during a portion of the snow event.
The end result will likely be a 0.50″ to 2.00″ snow event. Some models show a bit more.
Of course, it seems with every snow event there are surprises. We will see if this one can pull a rabbit out of its hat.
My going forecast is snow tomorrow morning (Wednesday morning). Tapering west to east as we move through the day.
It will then be dry Wednesday night into Friday.
A larger system will move into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will likely push through the region Saturday and Saturday night. Perhaps a few showers Sunday.
The EC model shows heavy snow near the St Louis, Missouri, to Mt Vernon, Illinois, area. That would be late Friday night and early Saturday morning.
For now, I have discounted this forecast from the EC model. I have all rain. I will keep a close eye on it. This system is still several days away.
Here are what some o the models are showing for snow totals Wednesday.
Hrrr Model
NAM Model
GFS Model
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers January 27th through February 2nd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers February 3rd through February 9th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers February 9th through February 22nd
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
Winter Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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