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January 26, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Breezy. Increasing clouds late in the day. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 15 to 25 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy early. Increasing clouds through the night. A slight chance of rain showers before 10 PM. Rain increase from west to east after 10 PM. Widespread rain after midnight. Breezy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread late
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: Southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No, but rain is likely late tonight.
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January 27, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Rain ending from west to east during the morning and early afternoon hours. Rain will end first over southeast Missouri and will linger the longest over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Decreasing clouds as the day wears on.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 56 IL ~ 54 to 56 KY ~ 54 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread. A band of showers will push across the area.
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some evening clouds. Decreasing clouds overnight. Colder.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 32 IL ~ 28 to 34 KY ~ 28 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Rain should have ended.
Wind chill values: 24 to 28
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: West becoming north and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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January 28, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny with a few passing clouds. A bit cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 46 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear early. Colder. Increasing clouds late. Snow flurries or snow showers possible, especially over northern parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Precipitation will move from the northwest towards the southeast.
Temperatures: MO ~ 23 to 26 IL ~ 23 to 26 KY ~ 23 to 26
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered late at night
Wind chill values: 18 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice: Small chance of a dusting across northern parts of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois.
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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January 29, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of flurries or snow showers before 12 pm. Cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 38 IL ~ 34 to 38 KY ~ 34 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to spotty possible
Wind chill values: 26 to 34
Accumulating snow or ice: Small chance of a dusting in a few spots.
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 18 to 24 IL ~ 18 to 24 KY ~ 18 to 24
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 14 to 18
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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January 30, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Chilly.
Temperatures: MO ~ 35 to 40 IL ~ 35 to 40 KY ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 28 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North becoming south at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few passing clouds. Cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 34 IL ~ 28 to 34 KY ~ 28 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 20 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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January 31, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Some increase in clouds during the afternoon.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A chance of mainly late night showers. Turning cold north to south.
Temperatures: MO ~ 32 to 42 IL ~ 34 to 42 KY ~ 36 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, but perhaps increasing late at night
Wind chill values: 25 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice: Monitor updates
Winds: South becoming southwest at 6 to 12 mph. Wind becoming north late over our northern counties.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Monitor updates
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February 1, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain or rain and snow likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 30 to 40 IL ~ 30 to 40 KY ~ 30 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps widespread
Wind chill values: 20 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice: Possible
Winds: West at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain or snow likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 25 to 35 IL ~ 25 to 35 KY ~ 25 to 35
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps widespread
Wind chill values: 15 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice: Possibly
Winds: Becoming west and northwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Monitor updates
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Tonight through Sunday: Snow is not anticipated.
A few snow flurries or snow showers are possible Sunday night and Monday.
I am monitoring a bigger system next Wednesday night into Friday.
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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Now through next Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link.
Short term outlook:
Friday into Saturday night
The main weather story, over the next couple of days, will be gusty winds and rain chances.
A tightening pressure gradient will help produce gusty winds into Saturday. Wind gusts above 30 mph are possible.
Moisture will increase tonight, ahead of a cold front, and showers will develop across the area. The rain will be widespread by late tonight into Saturday.
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If you have outdoor plans on Saturday morning or early afternoon, then have a plan B.
Here is the high resolution NAM model guidance future-cast radar. This is what radar might look like tonight and Saturday. Time stamp is located in the upper left portion of the loop.
The rain will end from west to east on Saturday late morning and afternoon. It will first end over southeast Missouri.
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Here are your rain probabilities. Rainfall totals won’t be extreme. We could use the moisture.
What is the % chance of X amount of rain falling.
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Here is NOAA’s forecast for rainfall totals. They have somewhat higher totals over portions of Tennessee and Kentucky.
Click images to enlarge
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Temperatures, over the next few days, will remain a bit above normal. Normal high temperatures are around 44 to 46 degrees and normal low temperatures are around 26 degrees.
Saturday highs. Highs on Saturday will be partly dependent on what time the rain ends.
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Sunday high temperatures
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I am watching a fast moving clipper system late Sunday night and especially on Monday. The system becomes better organized as it leaves our local area.
With that said, there might be just enough lift and moisture to produce a few snow or rain showers. At this time, accumulation appears unlikely. As always, I will monitor the trends in guidance.
You can see the GFS model future-cast radar guidance shows just a hint of light rain/snow showers on Monday. Green is rain. Blue is snow. Confidence is low as to whether we actually see any snowflakes.
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Ensembles also show some light snow in the region Monday. What are ensembles? See graphic further down.
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Here are my snow probabilities for that system.
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A stronger system will move into the region Wednesday night into next Thursday night. Timing will need to be monitored.
This system has been in the charts for some time. It appears there is going to be precipitation in our region.
A strong cold front will dive into the region from the north. This front will usher in another round of bitterly cold air.
The big question is placement of the precipitation vs the cold air.
It is still way too soon to be posting snowfall total maps. There remains questions as to whether we will be mostly rain or rain changing to a period of snow.
Either way, it will likely be much colder towards the end of next week. If we do have snow on the ground then single digits to teens will return. Not what everyone wants to hear.
Let me show you some guidance.
This is the GFS model guidance. One of many models. Models aren’t gospel, they are guidance. That means we use them to put together a forecast. No single model is ever correct.
This particular run of the GFS (it runs four times daily) does show some chance of rain changing to snow in our local area. Previous runs were further south with the track. This run is a bit further north with the cold air.
Long long way to go with this one.
Again, green is rain and blue is snow.
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Let me show you the previous run of that model. See the difference? This run of the GFS model was further south.
The models are not going to lock onto this system for a few more days. Confidence will remain low as to whether we will or won’t receive measurable snow.
It is worth monitoring.
If you have travel plans next Wednesday night through Friday, then check back for updates.
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Beau’s Winter Weather Outlook
I am monitoring next Wednesday/Thursday/Friday for a precipitation event.
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A precipitation event appears almost certain next Wednesday night into Friday.
Confidence is low as to whether it will be rain or snow or both.
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Ensemble guidance does show strong signals for wintry precipitation.
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Let’s look at some of the ensembles.
Here is the GFS ensemble set. Each square is one run of the GFS model. The more squares that agree the higher the confidence in the forecast.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Orange is sleet. You can see there is strong agreement that we will have precipitation towards the middle/end of next week.
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This first image represents the time period from 12 PM to 6 PM on Thursday. These are six hour precipitation totals. Some show rain. Some show snow. They all show something. That increases my confidence that we are going to have precipitation next Wednesday night into Thursday night.
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This next graphic is 6 PM Thursday through 12 AM Friday. Six hour precipitation totals. Green is rain. Blue is snow.
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So what does all of that mean? It means we will likely have a cold front push into the area next Wednesday/Thursday. Rain is likely along the front. We might have a changeover to some wintry precipitation, but it is still too early for confidence levels to be all that high.
Let’s look at temperature anomaly maps from the EC ensembles.
This is a different model.
Here is the MEAN average snowfall from the EC. It does attempt to paint some snow over us, but not much.
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The control run (the main run of the EC) shows no snow.
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The ensembles are all over the place. Not surprising.
Remember, with ensembles you are looking for agreement. The more that agree the higher the confidence in the forecast.
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These maps show you how many degrees below or above normal temperatures will be.
This is the anomaly map for today. Much above normal temperatures over a large chunk of the nation.
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Now let’s look at January 30th. Colder air filters into the region. We return to colder than normal weather.
Normal high temperatures are around 45 degrees. Normal low temperatures are around 26 degrees.
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Here is the map for February 3rd. Colder than normal. Talk about a flip from this week.
If we do have snow then temperatures will be even colder.
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So what does all of that mean? It means we will likely have a cold front push into the area next Wednesday/Thursday. Rain is likely along the front. We might have a changeover to some sort of wintry precipitation, but it is still too early for confidence levels to be all that high.
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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. This will usually fix any problems.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
National interactive radar: Click this link.
