Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

Tuesday night – Partly to mostly cloudy over much of the area.  Southwest counties could have clear sky conditions for a bit this evening.  Seasonably cold.
Temperatures:  Lows from 22-28
Winds:  North/northwest winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None

 

Wednesday – A mix of sun and clouds.  Maybe some afternoon sun.  We will have to see how quick the clouds exit on Wednesday.  Data is a bit mixed on this subject.
Temperatures:  Highs will range 35-40 degrees.
Winds:  West/southwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None

 

Wednesday night – Perhaps some clearing.
Temperatures:  Lows from 24-28
Winds:  Variable winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None

 

Thursday – Partly sunny.  Not as cold.
Temperatures:  Highs will range 42 to 46 degrees range.
Winds:   Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None

 

Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  Dry weather for a few days
2.  Seasonably cold weather into Wednesday night
3.  Warming trend late this week
4.  Deep area of low pressure moves to our north early next week.

The main weather story over the next few days will be the warming trend. Although, we have some chilly days and nights to get through before we start to feel the warmth.

Expect seasonally cool temperatures on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Then we start to poke into the 40s on Thursday and Friday.  Some data indicates a few 50s are possible over the weekend.  If true, then the weatherman will be receiving some gold stars in his book.

I am watching two storm systems in the long range.

The first system approaches the region on Sunday and Sunday night.  Maybe a few light showers and some clouds associated with it.  Then, a stronger storm system will move into the region on Monday night into Tuesday night.  Timing will need to be worked out.

A deep area of low pressure is forecast to track across Missouri and Illinois.  This system will produce some showers and thunderstorms as the cold front passes through the area.  This will need to be monitored.

Some data indicates we will experience temperatures into the 60s ahead of this cold front. And, dew points will be on the rise, as well.  How much quality moisture flows northward from the Gulf of Mexico is questionable.   However, if we do have some rich moisture then thunderstorms might be the end result.  Still several days to monitor the trends on this event.

Let’s look at a few maps

Here is the first system.  This map, from the GFS guidance package, shows an area of low pressure to our southwest.  This is a weak system.  But, it could produce some drizzle or light showers on Sunday night.  We will see.

You can see the next low over Nevada and Utah.  This is the system we need to keep an eye on for next week.  All available data has this system impacting our region with some showers and maybe thunderstorms.

Moving ahead to Monday morning.  The GFS shows some patchy green in the area.  Maybe a few light showers.  Again, see the larger system well to our west.

Moving ahead to Tuesday morning.  We can see the system from the Rockies and Central Plains pushing eastward.  The GFS has the low wound up fairly tight.  Blizzard likely on the north/northwest edge of this storm system.  Would not be surprised to see some blizzard warnings issued for parts of Colorado, Nebraska, south Dakota, and Kansas.  Depending on the low pressure centers eventual track.

You can see the low over the Oklahoma and Kansas border.  And it is moving northeast.  The red L is the area of low pressure.

Moving ahead to Tuesday afternoon and evening. GFS guidance shows a line of showers and thunderstorms moving through our region.  Some of the storms could be heavy.  The low, on Tuesday evening, is tracking to our west/northwest at 990 mb.  We will have to see where the system occludes.  When a system occludes it starts to weaken.

A few more images from the TropicalTidbits model site.

This is the GFS guidance zoomed into our region.

Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 24 degrees.  Normal high temperatures are around 44 degrees.  The maps below are temperature anomaly maps.  How many degrees above normal might we be at a given time point.

This first image is for 6 am on Sunday morning.  Those pink colors represent 12-15 degrees above normal.

This next image is for Sunday evening.  Well above normal temperatures are anticipated.  The image below is for 6 pm on Sunday.

Moving ahead to Tuesday.  Temperatures ahead of our next area of low pressure will be above normal.  Assuming the area of low pressure tracks as anticipated.  WELL above normal temperatures on Tuesday morning.  Again, the area of low pressure is pulling warm/moist air northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

Moving ahead to Tuesday evening.  Well above normal temperatures.  See the curved look back into Missouri and Kansas?  That is the area of low pressure.

Moving ahead to Thursday.  Behind the system we will experience colder air.  Blue colors represent colder than normal temperatures.

Let’s assume for a minute that the GFS is correct.  Here are the temperatures forecast for Tuesday late morning and early afternoon.  Sixties are showing up on the map below.

And, here is the dew point map (below).  Dew points are a measure of how much moisture is in the air.  This will need to be monitored.  Dew points in the sixties, during the winter months, is one ingredient we look for when it comes to thunderstorms.

No significant winter weather expect.  Small chance for a flurry or brief period of patchy freezing drizzle late Monday night.  But, most likely it will just be rain ending before the colder air arrives.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday and Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.

Adjusted wind direction

No major concerns into tomorrow.

No

The wild card in this evening will be a storm system around the beginning of February.  Some data indicates thunderstorms will be possible.

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

No precipitation on Wednesday-Friday.

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO on Wednesday into Sunday.  Closely monitoring Monday-Tuesday.

 

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. 

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.