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Subscribers: Winter Weather Update can be viewed on this page
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January 25, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 38 IL ~ 34 to 38 KY ~ 34 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: Southwest and west at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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January 26, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Breezy. Increasing clouds late in the day. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 15 to 25 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy early. Increasing clouds through the night. A slight chance of rain showers before 10 PM. Rain increase from west to east after 10 PM. Widespread rain after midnight. Breezy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread late
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: Southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No, but rain is likely late tonight.
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January 27, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Rain ending from west to east during the morning and early afternoon hours. Rain will end first over southeast Missouri and will linger the longest over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Decreasing clouds as the day wears on.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 56 IL ~ 54 to 56 KY ~ 54 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread. A band of showers will push across the area.
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some evening clouds. Decreasing clouds overnight. Colder.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 32 IL ~ 28 to 34 KY ~ 28 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Rain should have ended.
Wind chill values: 24 to 28
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: West becoming north and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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January 28, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny with a few passing clouds. A bit cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 46 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear early. Colder. Increasing clouds late. A slight chance of snow flurries.
Temperatures: MO ~ 23 to 26 IL ~ 23 to 26 KY ~ 23 to 26
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind chill values: 18 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice: Most likely no
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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January 29, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of flurries or snow showers. Cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 38 IL ~ 34 to 38 KY ~ 34 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to spotty possible
Wind chill values: 26 to 34
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 18 to 24 IL ~ 18 to 24 KY ~ 18 to 24
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 14 to 18
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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January 30, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Chilly.
Temperatures: MO ~ 35 to 40 IL ~ 35 to 40 KY ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 28 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North becoming south at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few passing clouds. Cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 34 IL ~ 28 to 34 KY ~ 28 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 20 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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January 31, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Some increase in clouds during the afternoon.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A chance of mainly late night showers. Turning cold north to south.
Temperatures: MO ~ 32 to 42 IL ~ 34 to 42 KY ~ 36 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, but perhaps increasing late at night
Wind chill values: 25 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice: Monitor updates
Winds: South becoming southwest at 6 to 12 mph. Wind becoming north late over our northern counties.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Monitor updates
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February 1, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain or rain and snow likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 30 to 40 IL ~ 30 to 40 KY ~ 30 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps widespread
Wind chill values: 20 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice: Possible
Winds: West at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain or snow likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 25 to 35 IL ~ 25 to 35 KY ~ 25 to 35
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps widespread
Wind chill values: 15 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice: Possibly
Winds: Becoming west and northwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Monitor updates
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Tonight through Sunday: Snow is not anticipated.
I am monitoring a system towards the end of next week (beyond Wednesday).
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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Thursday through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Small chance of lightning Friday night and Saturday. Low confidence.
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link.
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Today through Friday
Calm weather will continue today into Friday evening. We will have strong and gusty winds over the next 48 hours. That is in response to a tightening pressure gradient.
Temperatures won’t be warm, but they also won’t be cold. You can expect widespread 50’s today and tomorrow. That is above the seasonal norms of 44 to 46 degrees (for high temperatures).
Here is the temperature anomaly map for 12 PM today. How many degrees above normal will it be?
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Here is the 12 PM Friday temperature anomaly map. Again, above normal!
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Friday night through Sunday
The weather heads downhill on Friday night and Saturday.
A cold front will enter our region from the west. This front will have enough moisture to spark a band of showers.
The bulk of the rain will likely fall late Friday night into Saturday. A few remaining showers are possible Saturday night. We dry out on Sunday.
Here are your rain probabilities.
What is the % chance of X amount of rain falling.
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Beau’s Winter Weather Outlook
I am not anticipating any snow or ice accumulation through next Monday.
I am monitoring next Wednesday/Thursday/Friday for a precipitation event.
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I am monitoring a system that could bring precipitation into the region next Wednesday through Friday. Model guidance is indicating that there may be enough cold air for snow or ice.
Confidence is low, since it is in the long range.
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Ensemble guidance does show strong signals for wintry precipitation.
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Let’s look at some of the ensembles.
Here is the GFS ensemble set. Each square is one run of the GFS model. The more squares that agree the higher the confidence in the forecast.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Orange is sleet. You can see there is strong agreement that we will have precipitation towards the middle/end of next week.
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So what does all of that mean? It means we will likely have a cold front push into the area next Wednesday/Thursday. Rain is likely along the front. We might have a changeover to some sort of wintry precipitation, but it is still too early for confidence levels to be all that high.
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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. This will usually fix any problems.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
National interactive radar: Click this link.
