Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.  

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? POSSIBLE.  This morning 

7.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  LOW RISK.  A low risk of light snow Sunday night over the Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.    I will monitor next Friday and Saturday.

8.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.  I will monitor next Friday and Saturday.

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Notes:

THE FORECAST WILL TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll further down to see the region by region forecast.

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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

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A quick glance.  48-hour forecast Graphics

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Friday Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri  32° to 35°
The Missouri Bootheel  33° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  30° to 32°
Southern Illinois  33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky  34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY  34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  30° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee 35° to 40° 
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  5° to 20°   (coldest during the morning)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 5:12 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:   Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  23° to 26°
Southeast Missouri  22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  20° to 24°
Southern Illinois  22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 24° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  20° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee  24° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 22°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:01  AM
Moonset: 12:25 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Saturday Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois  44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  15° to 40°   (coldest before 9 AM)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 5:13 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A slight chance of rain or snow showers across the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.  It may simply remain dry.  The storm system in question continues to trend south.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation:  After 12 am
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  24° to 28°
Southeast Missouri  30° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  22° to 25°
Southern Illinois  25° to 30°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  30° to 32°
Far western Kentucky 30° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 30° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  28° to 30°
Northwest Tennessee  30° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:04  AM
Moonset: 1:12 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Sunday Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Most likely dry.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  38° to 42°
Southern Illinois  42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  25° to 35°    during the morning.  In the upper 30s to lower 40s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 5:14 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain or snow showers (south).
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation:  After 6 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri  26° to 30°
The Missouri Bootheel 28° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  20° to 22°
Southern Illinois  22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee  28° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 30°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:04 AM
Moonset: 2:07 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Good day, everyone.

We are waking up to cold temperatures.  A wild range.

Temperatures are in the single digits north and around twenty degrees south.

Here were the 6 am temperatures

It will be cold today with highs mostly in the 30s.  Brrr.

The great news is warmer temperatures arrive tomorrow and will be with us into next week.

As a matter of fact, the fifties will finally return to the forecast.  I can hear the cheers.

Widespread forties will be common tomorrow into the middle of next week.  Then, a few days with fifties.

I can’t rule out a few spots hitting fifty degrees tomorrow.  It is more likely by Tuesday.

Tomorrow’s highs (Saturday)

Double click images to enlarge.

Tuesday highs

Wednesday highs.

A southern system may clip the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee (along the KY/TN border southward) with a few rain or snow showers Saturday night into Sunday night.

This system is so far south that it may simply miss us.  I will monitor it.

I am watching another southern system around Wednesday, but that one is pretty far south, as well.

Perhaps more likely will be a system late next week.  Around Friday/Saturday.

Three models are showing it.  The track will be key to precipitation type.

The Canadian model is the coldest.  Blue is snow.  Pink is ice.

EC model  It is way north and would bring thunderstorms to our area.

GFS model (it is wet not white).

So, that is something to monitor over the  coming days.

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Future-cast Radar

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

Nothing on the short-range models.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways!  Now, I have another product for you and your family.

** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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We have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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